York notes

May 18th, 2012 by Donn McClean

Some horses to note from Wednesday’s opening day of the Dante meeting…

Suits Me – Led at a fast pace and stayed on the far rail in the home straight, all of which probably militated against him, given that the other horses to do that, Space War, New Hampshire and Labarinto, all faded to finish third last, second last and last, but Suits Me kept on really well all the way to the line to finish fourth. He is nine years old and he is not obviously progressive, but this was a fine performance, probably significantly better than the bare form of it, and he can win a similar contest.

Gatewood – Won well, he did wander a bit under pressure, but he kept finding when others came to him, and he probably won with a fair bit in hand. This was just his fourth ever run, his seasonal debut. This race has been won by some nice types in the past, including Pekan Star and Imposing, who won the last two renewals, and Gatewood should be able to progress from this.

Mulaqen – Travelled like a good horse, a little keenly if anything, picked up nicely to take it up early in the home straight, and stayed on really well all the way to the line, winning with plenty in hand. This was just his sixth ever run, his first since last July (when he wasn’t beaten far by Aiken) and he can progress again. The time was very good for a Class 4 contest, the exact equal comparatively of the Group 3 Musidora Stakes and the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes. He could make up into an Ebor horse. He stayed this trip well.

Aldwick Bay – Travelled as well as the winner Mulaqen into the home straight, but just didn’t seem to see out the 12-furlong trip, just getting run out of fourth place in the final strides. He will be interesting again dropped back down to 10f.

Swinging Hawk - Ran on well from the rear on his first run on the flat since October 2010, and his first run under any code since last January. He had to check back around the three-furlong pole, just when he was beginning to wind up for a finishing effort, which didn’t help. It was his first run since being gelded, and he can go on for this, especially if he is stepped up again in trip.

Mayson – Got upset in the stalls before the Duke of York Stakes, which is not like him, but Paul Hanagan said afterwards that he didn’t give him any kind of feel at all through the race. You can put a line through this because of the fact that he got upset in the stalls, and he may be under-rated a little on his next run on the back of what was ostensibly a disappointing run for which he can be easily forgiven.

Society Rock – Ran a cracker to finish a close-up fourth in the Duke of York, despite being short of room inside the final furlong. This should leave him spot on for Royal Ascot. He was strong in the market for this, he probably isn’t expected to come on a great deal for it, but his record at Ascot is so good that he has to be under consideration for the Golden Jubilee again now, at least in the without-the-favourite market, given the presence in that race this year of the remarkable Black Caviar.

Bogart - Showed a lot of pace on the far side in the Duke of York, he is only three and this was his seasonal debut, so there is plenty of potential for progression, even though it can be tough for three-year-olds in the sprinting division. A drop back to five furlongs shouldn’t inconvenience him unduly either. The Nunthorpe might be the race for him.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Category: Horse racing

Interesting Times

May 14th, 2012 by Donn McClean

Interesting comparisons between the sectional times of the three races run over a mile at Leopardstown yesterday.  No, they haven’t put microchips in the saddlecloths at Leopardstown and a sensor in every furlong marker.  Not yet anyway.  For sectionals in this instance, read Racing Replay and the stopwatch on my iPhone, so the timing may not be of TagHeuer precision.

Bear with this though. It still may be a worthwhile exercise, given that comparisons arerelative, with the same eye-to-brain-to-finger delay for all.

The camera angles allow you divide the one-mile track at Leopardstown into five sections. They race head-on towards you for the first couple of furlongs, so it is difficult to use a furlong pole as a marker but, conveniently, there is a path that runs across the track around the seven-furlong point, you can easily see when the horses reach the path because of the divots that they kick up. So from the stalls to the path is your first section. 

Incidentally, I timed the races from the point just after the stalls have opened, simply because the footage for one of the races begins just before that point, so the summation of the sectionals falls short of the overall time. Again, bear with me.

The path to the five-furlong pole is the second section, the five-furlong pole to the three-furlong pole is the third, the three to the two is the fourth, and the two-furlong pole to the winning line is the fifth.

I started the exercise with the hypothesis that they went too fast in the early stages of the 1000 Guineas Trial, and that the fillies who raced prominently were therefore disadvantaged by so doing.  In the one-mile handicap, by contrast, they seemed to go very slowly early on, as nothing wanted to lead and the ultimate winner Whipless seemed to lead on sufferance.  In the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes, they seemed to go a good even gallop throughout.

Sure enough, in the Amethyst Stakes, they went through the first section, from just after the stalls opened to the path, in 12.9secs, in the 1000 Guineas Trial they went through it in 12.4secs and in the handicap they went through it in a positively pedestrian 14.3secs.

The relative speeds continued through the second section, a median 24.4secs for the Amethyst Stakes, a speedy 23.5secs for the Guineas Trial and a leisurely 25.6secs for the handicap.

Interestingly, the third and fourth sections for all three races were very similar (24.8secs, 24.8secs, 24.3secs and 13.2secs, 13.1secs, 13.3secs) as the pace in the fillies’ race obviously levelled off while the pace in the other two races picked up, and the effects of the early pace were evident in the times for the final section: 24.8secs for the classy Famous Name in the Amethyst Stakes off that even pace, 27.5secs, almost three seconds slower, for the fillies as they struggled home off searing early fractions, and 25.7secs for the handicappers off that sedate early pace.

Conclusions? Well, hypothesis proved for starters, they did go off very fast in the 1000 Guineas Trial as Duntle and Princess Sinead duelled for the early lead.  Duntle had led all the way when she won on her racecourse debut at Dundalk, Princess Sinead had been held up in her two previous races, but she had made the running when she won her maiden at The Curragh last June, and connections obviously felt that she could benefit from making the running again.

Princess Sinead faded to finish last, her early exertions telling in the end, so it was to Duntle’s credit that she was able to last in front as long as she did. Indeed, she looked the most likely winner when she kicked from the front off the hometurn and went two lengths clear.  David Wachman’s filly is one of two to take out of the race for me.  This was only her second run, and she proved here that she belongs at least in this grade. She should do better next time if she is afforded an easier time of it up front or perhaps if she is dropped in just behind the pace.

Coral Wave is the other filly to take out of the race. Patrick Prendergast’s filly raced keenly just behind the two leaders in the early stages of the race, and she had to race three wide around the home turn, yet she was still able to keep on well enough to finish a close-up third.

This was her first run since last September, when she beat Guineas winner Homecoming Queen by a neck in the Group 3 CL Weld Park Stakes, and it was therefore understandable that she was keen through the early throes, despite the fast pace.  She should come on appreciably for this run, and she could make up into a high-class three-year-old filly, especially on easy ground.

·     For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

Category: Horse racing

Donn McClean Blog: Chester worth the wait

May 10th, 2012 by Donn McClean

Chester debut

11.00am – The girl at the hotel says turn left out the gate, follow the signs for Chester, then pick up the signs for the racecourse.  It’s a 20-minute drive, you should be there in seven.  Sound simple?  It does.  It isn’t.  The Sally Gap is signposted better.

11.20am – The sign that says car parking, left, surely doesn’t mean the left that is directly beside the sign, which looks like a ramp down to a public car park, a shopping car park, in the middle of the town.  It surely means the next left about 100 yards later, that will take you into a big field where you can swing around and do a big turn before coming to rest beside the guy in the yellow jacket.  It doesn’t.  Up to the next roundabout, wheel around, no U-turn, yikes.

11.40am – Ah there is it.  Walk down a street from the car park, then another street, and it happens upon you, the entrance, right in the middle of the town, or is Chester a city?

12.10pm – Remarkable.  You think that you walk through the looking glass when you walk into Punchestown’s enclosures?  Try coming to Chester.  It’s a little oasis in the middle of a bumbling city (beautiful city apparently, haven’t checked it out yet).  Stands at the top of the track, overlooking the winning line, bars and enclosures and parade ring in the centre of the track where you might expect to see a pitch and putt course, city walls enveloping the lot.

12.15pm – Meet well-known Northern Irish bookmaker, over for the week, strong market here, makes Fairyhouse on Saturday feel like a schooling day.

12.30pm – The verdict in the press room is unanimous: Chester rules, this meeting is up there among their favourites of the year, at the top for some, can’t believe you haven’t been here before, one of these Ballydoyle horses must be gone by, is he?  (Or she?)  Right, I’m off to walk the track.  See you in 11 minutes.  Oh you’re going to walk slowly then are you?

12.40pm – It may be only seven and a half furlongs from the winning post to the winning post – there are dog tracks in Ireland with bigger circumferences – but it is intriguing for all that.  If you did this a couple of times, your right leg would probably end up longer than your left leg, and if you were hanging to your right you’d probably end up in the local shopping centre.  Try to find a straight line here that lasts longer than a furlong and a half – not easy.

12.50pm – I’m not sure if it makes much difference, but the second sward of grass away from the running rail appears to have been rolled forward, whereas the sward that is closest the rail has been rolled back, which makes it a little less easy to trod.  I’m steering two off the rail, feels like better ground.  Ground seems to be remarkably good, no worse than good to soft, but it’s raining, which is no good for hair or polished shoes or fast ground horses.

1.25pm – Wifi not working in the press room.  Not a huge issue for now but it might be.

1.35pm – Not sure if the buzz around the stands is the normal buzz around the stands before the opening race of the May Festival, or if it has more to do with the fact that Wayne Rooney’s horse, Pippy, is running in it.  It’s not quite the cheer that goes up when the starter sends them on their way for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but it’s a cheer of sorts.  Franny Norton wins the opener on All Fur Coat.  Celebrates Mickael Barzalona-like 50 yards from the winning line.  Pippy finishes last.  Not United’s year.

2.15pm – Franny Norton wins the second as well, the Cheshire Oaks.  Gets up in the shadow of the post (it’s a figure of speech, you understand, there aren’t many shadows around here today) on the 50/1 shot Good Morning Star to deny Joseph O’Brien on the Aidan O’Brien-trained 2/1 favourite Betterbetterbetter.  Turns out she wasn’t gone by after all.  Well-known Northern Irish bookmaker cheers.

2.30pm – Wifi still not working in the press room, five minutes before the scheduled start of the Chester Cup.  Disgruntledom taking hold.

2.35pm – Wifi working.  Disgruntledom averted.  Press people cheer.

2.37pm – Nothing to do with Wifi but it appears that there is going to be a flag start for the Chester Cup.  Something to do with the ground at the bottom bend, they may not have enough time to wheel the stalls off before the runners get around to that point again.  Line up in or around where you are drawn boys.  Shubaat and Tominator get shocking starts from inside draws and are immediately disadvantaged, Overturn gets a flyer from a middle draw, Gulf Of Naples gets a flyer from his outside draw.

2.41pm – It is difficult to argue that Ile De Re is not the best horse in the race in the conditions.  You have to feel for Overturn though, game effort to win back-to-back renewals thwarted by – who would have thunk – a relatively newly-acquired stable companion.  1-2 for Donald McCain, fair play, and not a hurdle or a Grand National fence in sight.

2.50pm – Wifi down.  Daily reporters exasperated.

3.10pm – After trialling various viewing spots – main grandstand, press stand on top of the press room in the middle of the track, press room (on television), stands rail – I think I’ve found the best one, the one from which I watch Confessional win the five-furlong handicap.  Bottom bend, leaning on the rail. Big screen in front of you on which you can watch the early stages of the race, perfect head-on view of the runners up the short home straight, and atmosphere, lots of atmosphere.  See the steam from the beaten horses’ backs when they return to unsaddle directly in front of you.  It’s not crowded either.  Don’t tell many.

3.30pm – Wifi working.  (Send.)

·      For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Category: Horse racing

Homecoming hindsight 20:20

May 8th, 2012 by Donn McClean

If you were one of those souls who backed Aidan O’Brien at 7/2 or 4/1 to train the winner of the Qipco 2000 and the winner of the Qipco 1000 Guineas over the weekend, you never thought you would be cheering Homecoming Queen home in the fillies’ race, did you?

You probably thought that you were having a double Camelot and Maybe (two 6/4 shots approximately, that’s 21/4 the double, five and a quarter to one) with Power thrown in as a bonus.  You probably never thought that Homecoming Queen could win the 1000 Guineas.

Not many did, admittedly, except for Joseph O’Brien, who apparently said beforehand that the other Ballydoyle filly was the main danger to Maybe.  Then you look for the case, looking through those dastardly 20-20 hindsight rose-tinted glasses, and there it is.

For starters, Homecoming Queen is a three-parts sister to Dylan Thomas, and Dylan Thomas won six Group 1 races, including two Irish Champion Stakes, an Irish Derby, a King George and an Arc.

She was just a tad more exposed than your typical Guineas winner, admittedly, having run 11 times as a juvenile and twice as a three-year-old before Sunday, more often than any other filly in Sunday’s race by miles (half the field had raced just three times or less).  However, her record before Sunday on ground that was softer than yielding was 121, two wins and a second, the 2 recorded in the Group 3 CL Weld Park Stakes at The Curragh last September, when she was the lesser-fancied of two Aidan O’Brien-trained fillies in the race (as she was on Sunday) and when she went down by just a neck to Coral Wave.

She was also the second string of an Aidan O’Brien quartet when she won the Group 3 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last month, battling on really well to get the better of the Michael Tabor-owned, David Wachman-trained Fire Lily.  That was her most recent run, her second run of the season, so you knew that she was fit, a quality that was going to be worth a multiple of itself on Sunday’s ground when half the field were making their seasonal debuts.

If you wanted, you could have made a case for her on collateral lines of form: she beat Fire Lily by a neck in the 1000 Guineas Trial, and Maybe only beat Fire Lily by one and three-quarter lengths in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last September so, in theory, Homecoming Queen had just a length and a half to find with her stable companion, and Maybe was the 6/4 favourite while she was a 25/1 shot.  Comparing collateral lines of form can be a tricky business, especially when said lines of form straddle seasons, but they still give an indication as to relative merits.

Finally, you knew that Homecoming Queen was probably going to be allowed to jump and run, set a true pace that would suit her and that would be no harm for her stable companion Maybe.  Homecoming Queen’s record going into yesterday’s race, when she led from early, was 12191.  Now it’s 121911.

It might be a mistake to underestimate this performance, because it wasn’t as if she stole the race, it wasn’t as though Ryan Moore caught his colleagues napping.  They were right up behind her at the three-furlong pole but, when Moore gave her a squeeze, she just came clear.  She won by nine lengths, and she clocked a time that was two seconds faster than the time that Camelot clocked in the 2000 Guineas the previous day.

Okay, so she had fitness on her side and she had conditions in her favour, but, while we don’t know if she will be able to reproduce this level of performance on better ground, we don’t know that she won’t.  It was good ground when she won her Guineas trial at Leopardstown.

You have to conclude that she is a top class filly in these conditions, and it may be that the lead is more important to her than easy ground.  She should get further than a mile on breeding and, allowed her head in front in the Coronation Stakes or in the Irish Guineas or wherever she goes next, she may prove difficult to pass again.

Easy in hindsight, of course.

Category: Horse racing

Kempton notes

May 3rd, 2012 by Donn McClean

Some notes from a high-class evening’s racing at Kempton yesterday, that should have been notes from a high-class evening’s racing at Ascot yesterday.  (Say standard where you would have said heavy to unraceable.)

Colour Vision: He did benefit from being held up out the back off a really fast early pace in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes, but the turn of foot that he showed was impressive, and he won with much more in hand than the winning margin, smashing the track record, with last year’s Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux second and the pair of them clear of the useful Thimaar.  Third in the Cesarewitch last year as the only three-year-old in the race when with Mark Johnston, he wasn’t beaten far by Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll in the British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot last October, and this was his first run since.  He has obviously strengthened up from three to four, he is just Saeed Bin Suroor’s third winner of the season so far, and he should improve again.  He could easily be a Cup horse.

Electrolyser: His win on his previous run at Nottingham was obviously not rated too highly, given that he was allowed go off as the 14/1 outsider of the field here, but he ran well again.  He was forced to go faster than he probably wanted by Solar Sky’s attentions, and the pair of them set it up for those who were ridden patiently, but he still kept at it well.  It is probable that he will continue to be under-rated.

Saamidd: Really encouraging return, he only just failed to catch the high-class Sri Putra, the pair of them clear of the talented Side Glance, on his first run since he was tailed off in last year’s Guineas on his only run at three.  He was a high class juvenile, he won the Champagne Stakes, and there is every chance that he can make up for lost time now.  He will be interesting if he goes wherever Frankel doesn’t.

Burwaaz: He was too keen through the early stages of the six-furlong listed race, he was hampered a little and caught widest of all going around the home turn, and he seemed to clip the heels of B Fifty Two when Paul Hanagan tried to angle him out to challenge in the straight, yet he still kept on best of all to finish third.  He was never going to catch the front two, but it is not unreasonable to think that he would have gone close had he enjoyed even a little better luck in-running.  He raced eight times last year as a juvenile and he was highly tried – he was only beaten a short head in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes – but it looks like he has improved from two to three.

Samminder: Never had a clear run, finished full of running, he could have gone close had he got out to deliver his challenge.  This run did not go unnoticed, he will have gone into many notebooks on the back of this, and he may be over-bet consequently whenever he runs next, but he is still worthy of note, he is still worthy of at least a second glance when he does next run.  He is lightly-raced and he remains interesting.

Category: Horse racing

Donn McClean’s Jump racing awards

May 1st, 2012 by Donn McClean

MOST DESERVED TITLE OF THE YEAR
Davy Russell: Second in the Irish Jockeys’ Championship every year for the last five, you would have to dig deep to find someone who thought that Russell didn’t deserve it this time.

Willie Mullins: If you earn more prize money in a season in winning the trainers’ championship than that amassed by the sum of the totals of the trainers who finished second, third, fourth and fifth in the championship, then you deserve your title.

AP McCoy: Well, if he deserved his first 16, then he deserved this one as well.

CUSP-OF-RETIREMENT HORSE OF THE YEAR
Kauto Star: Who could have thought that he would win another King George to add to his previous four?

Neptune Collonges: Confounded the statisticians in winning the Grand National.  It wasn’t enough that he was an 11-year-old French-bred (only one French-bred horse had won the race in the last 100 years or something), or that he carried 11st 6lb (Red Rum was the last winner to carry more than 11st 5lb), or that multiple champion trainer Paul Nicholls had never won the race before, but he was also grey.  (Nicolaus Silver, 1961, in case you’re asked about it in a table quiz.)

FLEDGLING CHAMPION-IN-WAITING OF THE YEAR
Sprinter Sacre: Could be a horse of a lifetime.

Sir Des Champs: Probably over-rated by the 2013 Gold Cup ante post market, but still bursting with promise.

Simonsig: You think he’s a good hurdler?  Watch him when he starts to jump fences.

Flemenstar: Brilliant over two and a half miles, he will be a huge force next season if he stays three miles.

Last Instalment: As if Gigginstown House needed another one.

MOST PROMISING AS-YET-UNREALISED TALENT OF THE YEAR (HUMAN)
Bryan Cooper: His ride from the front on the 50/1 shot Benefficient, to record his first Grade 1 win was one of many astute ones.  Coming of age now as a fully-fledged professional.

Brendan Powell: A young rider going places, now becoming as fashionable as his talent should determine.  Has appeared on The Morning Line.

Maurice Linehan: As strong in a finish as most professionals.  In the right stable.

MOST PROMISING AS-YET-UNREALISED TALENT OF THE YEAR (EQUINE)
Champagne Fever: Proved that his victory in the Cheltenham Bumper on good ground was no fluke (16/1 about the Willie Mullins number one in the Cheltenham Bumper?) when he sloshed through the mud to win the equivalent race at Punchestown.  He is now apparently going straight over fences, a la Florida Pearl, and that’s exciting.

New Year’s Eve: Second to Champagne Fever in the Cheltenham Bumper, you can easily forgive his under-performance on the Punchestown ground given his breeding.  A 120,000gns yearling and a close relative of Midnight Game, it is easy to see him developing into a smart novice hurdler next season.

Boston Bob: Only second in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle and missed Punchestown, but he was top class as a staying novice hurdler and he promises to even better as a staying novice chaser.

Don Cossack: Skipped Cheltenham, big excitement brewing.

IRON MAN OF THE YEAR
AP McCoy: Travelling like a winner on Darlan in the Betfair Trophy going to the second last when, wham, hits the ground at 35mph in one of those look-away falls.  Don’t expect to see AP riding again this season for a long time.  Then, two and a half hours later, he gives Shutthefrontdoor one of those typical McCoy no-surrender rides to get him up on the line in a race in which you just knew from two furlongs out what the outcome was going to be.

Ruby Walsh: Travelling kindly in fourth place on Zarkandar going to the first flight down the back straight in the Aintree Hurdle when the horse steps at the flight and comes down, firing Walsh out in front of him, then adds to the ignominy by rolling on the rider, splitting his helmet and knocking it off his head.  Rider tries to convince the medics that he is okay to ride On His Own in the most fearsome race on the calendar an hour and a half later.  Doesn’t.

Barry Geraghty: Broke nose off Mossey Joe at Punchestown on Tuesday, rode two horses at Punchestown on Wednesday, rode Oscara Dara and Lucky William to victory on Friday, won the Punchestown Gold Cup on China Rock on Saturday.  Will have his nose looked at this week at some stage, if he gets a chance.  Says he thinks the fall knocked it back into place.

MOST NOTABLE ABSENTEE OF THE YEAR
Last Instalment: RSA Chase

Captain Chris: Punchestown Gold Cup

Flemenstar: Cheltenham

Boston Bob: Neptune Hurdle

British horses: Hennessy Gold Cup, Irish Champion Hurdle

MONKEY-COME-GOOD OF THE YEAR
Tidal Bay: Circumstances conspired to bring out the best in the 2008 Arkle winner in the Bet365 Gold Cup on Saturday.  Maybe it was the extreme distance (this was the longest distance over which he had raced, with the exception of his run in the 2011 Grand National, when he unseated his rider at the 10th fence) or the soft ground (this was the softest ground on which he had raced since he won the Cleeve Hurdle in January 2010) or the track’s configuration (his record going right-handed before Saturday was 11124) that brought out the best in him.  Easy now, isn’t it?

(Other nominees withdrew after Saturday’s performance.)

THING-TO-WHICH-TO-LOOK-FORWARD-MOST OF THE YEAR
Next year.

Category: Horse racing

Donn McClean: Children, coffee and Captain Chris

April 25th, 2012 by Donn McClean

Dear (Punchestown) Diary

6.15am: Child 1 edges sheepishly closer in the half-light, half asleep, scary dream apparently, something about snowmen trying to push her sister into a hole. (Doesn’t respond to obvious question.)  Here, you can take my place, time to be getting up anyway.

7am: Not much rain yet on the east coast.  Some wind, but the sea hasn’t caught up yet.  It usually takes it a while.  Stamina more than speed is the sea’s thing.  Pic of Davy Russell on the front of the Racing Post engaging in some gravity-defying antics on Sir Des Champs.  Quick check inside, open Pricewise page with trepidation, hope Bridgets Pet isn’t Tom’s selected.

There is a rule of physics somewhere that says that the more slowly you open the Racing Post, the less chance there is that Tom will have put up the horse that you want to back.  It didn’t work yesterday, mind you, when you thought you might have a small bet each-way on Realt Dubh at 14/1, maybe sneak a little bit of 16 or 18 on Betfair or Betdaq, instead of wondering was 10/1 value, or 9/1.  Or 6/1.

9am: Second cup of coffee, the sea is catching up with the wind now, and the wind is getting stronger, and it’s raining.  First suggestion of racing perhaps not going ahead.

Homework continues, the case for Bridgets Pet crystallises further, but he is being backed, 13/2 and 7/1 where last night there was 10/1 and 11/1, even though he isn’t a Pricewise horse.  He’s still value at that though, still worth backing, and Castle Wings could out-run his odds.

9.30am: Still raining and winding.

10am: The deeper you delve into the Punchestown Gold Cup, the more circles you weave.  It isn’t surprising that Quel Esprit is favourite, he will love the ground and he remains progressive, but nothing has happened since the Hennessy that he won to suggest that it was any stronger a race than it appeared to be at the time (weak) for the grade.  And he’s short.

Rubi Light is interesting, back on the soft ground that he relishes, but he still has to prove his stamina conclusively for three miles and a furlong on this ground.  And he’s short.  (See above.)

Magnanimity is the lowest-rated horse in the race, but we probably haven’t seen the real Magnanimity yet this season, his latest run in the Irish National was most encouraging, and he could out-run his big odds, but Captain Chris remains the most likely winner.  There is a concern about the ground for sure, but he handled it okay when he finished second behind Silviniaco Conti in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow in October 2010, and that was the last time he raced on ground that was softer than good to soft.  He’ll be going the right way round (right-handed) today, and he remains potentially top class.  Conclusion: 11/2 is too big.

10.15am: More money for Bridgets Pet.  Now the 11/1 shot that you thought you uncovered single-handedly last night is available at 9/2 and 5/1.  There comes a point, a price, at which a value bet isn’t a value bet any more.  You wonder has that point been reached.  You look out the window, see the rain, conclude no.

10.56am: Worries that today’s meeting will not go ahead because you read the press release that says it will.  It’s the tabloid mentality: Politician denies knowledge of shady dealings.  You decide that you deserve another cup of coffee.

12.30pm: Leave

1.30pm: Arrive.  The walk from the car to the gate is longer and wetter than you ever imagined it could be.  News filtering through via Paul Nolan’s mobile that the two chases have been abandoned and that we will have an all-hurdle-bumper card.  The chases will be run on Saturday and the first race today has been put back to 4.55pm.  Rumours that the bumper will be divided to make a six-race card are denied.

1.55pm: Three hours to kick-off.  Still raining.

2.00pm: Cup of coffee.

Category: Horse racing

Time for some Guineas guesswork

April 20th, 2012 by Donn McClean

So where does that leave us?  Not really much the wiser, that’s where.

That’s the thing about the flat, especially at this time of year.  You learn as much from keeping your ears close to the ground as you do from keeping your eyes close to the racecourse, and that is not a wholly satisfactory state of affairs.

The much-vaunted and well-touted and heavily-backed Most Improved didn’t make the line-up for the Craven Stakes yesterday.  It wasn’t the trainer’s fault.  Indeed, it is rare that you would have heard Brian Meehan communicating as bullishly about anything (not since the heavens opened before Tomba’s bid to land the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle in 1997 anyway) as he was about his horse’s chance of winning the Craven and springing more deeply into the Guineas swimming pool.

The horse just took a lame step and had to be scratched from this afternoon’s contest.  1/10th lame, they said.  I’m not quite sure what that means, but Ladbrokes thinks it means enough to push him out from 4/1 to 8/1 for the Guineas, and that’s a fair enough barometer for me.

Trumpet Major won the Craven, but I’m not quite sure what that’s telling us in the context of the Guineas either.  Richard Hannon’s colt was impressive in so doing, and he was giving 3lb to all, but the opposition probably lacked Guineas class and the ground was on the easy side, probably easier than it is going to be in Guineas day.  More than that, Trumpet Major was a fairly exposed juvenile last year, he raced eight times, he was well beaten in the Solario Stakes (albeit on soft ground) and he was only fifth in the Dewhurst.

Timeform have given him a big Guineas shout with a rating of 121, but the Craven hasn’t produced the Guineas winner since Haafhd in 2004.  Before Haafhd, I think you have to go back to Tirol (1990), who was also, coincidentally, trained by Hannon.  While it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Trumpet Major run well, and perhaps finish in the places, like recent Craven winners Native Khan and Delegator, it would be a little surprising if one of the less exposed Guineas probables didn’t have a little more class than the Craven winner.

Off the track, there were other signs.  The doubts about Most Improved sparked the universal shearing of prices.  John Oxx said in his stable tour, published in the Racing Post today, that Sea The Stars’s brother, Born To Sea, was on track.  Jim Bolger confirmed that Parish Hall would make his seasonal debut in the Guineas, but that he thought he might be more a Derby type.  Although maybe the fact that that was in the Epsom press release might have influenced that one a bit.

The other significant sign is that Ladbrokes are shortest in the village about the Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot, as short as 6/4 when there is 9/4 freely available elsewhere, and that may be significant.

Guineas second favourite Top Offer is due to run in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.  Let the guessing continue.

·      For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Category: Horse racing

Donn McClean asks the National Question

April 17th, 2012 by Donn McClean

This was going to be about Sunnyhillboy, about how unlucky he was, about the roller-coaster of emotion that you go through when you back a horse for the Grand National at 40/1 in February, back him again at 20/1 in March, see him get to a point at which he trades he trades at 1.03 in-running and get beaten by half the width of a cigarette paper.  Not a nostril, but by that part of a horse’s head that lies between the tip of his nose and his nostril.

But emotions now are a little different.

It is desperately sad that two horses were killed in this year’s Grand National.  Again.  But the people who will be most upset about the deaths are JP McManus and Peter Nelson and Jonjo O’Neill and Malcolm Jefferson and AP McCoy and Harry Haynes and the lads and lasses who looked after Synchronised and According To Pete until Saturday afternoon.

It was not an act of greed to allow Synchronised run in the Grand National after he had won the Gold Cup.  If JP McManus were to engage in an act of greed, he would take all his horses out of training, stop buying the horses, stop paying the training bills, because that is how he would maximise his return from racing.   The sickening thing about Synchronised’s demise is that you know that, had things worked out as they should have, he would have enjoyed a retirement for which most humans would give their eye teeth in the lap of luxury at his owner’s Martinstown Stud.

No horse had won the Gold Cup and the Grand National since Golden Miller in 1934, but it was not an impossible feat that Synchronised was attempting.  Rough Quest won the National in 1996 after finishing second to Imperial Call in the Gold Cup, Garrison Savannah was run out of National glory agonisingly on the run-in by Seagram in 1991 after winning the Gold Cup.  It could be done.  Master Oats in 1995 was the last horse to try it.  Indeed, you could easily argue that Synchronised had a near-favourite’s chance, given that he was 7lb well-in at the weights after his Gold Cup win.

And the fact that he ran loose before the start was almost certainly inconsequential.  He sauntered around the track before the race as if he was out for a Sunday morning stroll, pricking his ears, toying with the humans, until he allowed himself be caught and, one check-out from the vet later, was back wending his merry way down to the start with AP back on board.

The Grand National is a dangerous race.  Horse racing is dangerous.  Sport is dangerous.  Boxing, motor racing, sailing, football, danger is inherent in all.  Accidents happen, fatalities occur, but it doesn’t stop us engaging in them.

Horses are bred to race, they are born to race, most love to race, National Hunt horses are bred to race and jump.  Loose horses with no riders race and jump.  It is true that the Grand National is an extreme test, but that is why it is the Grand National.  It is run over a distance that is longer than any other race in these parts, over fences that are bigger and more daunting than any other fences in these parts, but that’s what makes it the Grand National.  That’s why it has the biggest prize, that’s why it commands the most interest, the largest audience, world-wide attention.

Horses have been killed in the Grand National, but horses have been killed while frolicking in paddocks.  Horses have been killed while racing on the flat.  There were four races run before Saturday over the Grand National fences with the new safety measures in place, and all passed off without incident.  By contrast, on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan, with no obstacles, racing only on the flat, three horses were lost.

I have heard the argument, if these people cared so much about their horses, why do they send them out to run in the Grand National?  Easy.  Why do they send their sons and daughters out to ride in it?  Why was Ted Walsh so happy for his daughter Katie that she was riding in the race for the first time on Saturday?  Happy and terrified, just as he was for his horse Seabass.

Noel Fehily broke his leg in the race, yet he is counting down the days to October when he can get up and ride again.  Ruby Walsh suffered a fall in the Aintree Hurdle – a race run over those little timber frames that your granny’s Jack Russell could jump – that could have been very bad.  The horse rolled on Walsh’s head, splitting his helmet.  Yet, the rider’s main concern was to pass the doctor so that he could ride in the Grand National.  He didn’t and he didn’t.

Owner John Hales lost his best horse, One Man, in the Melling Chase over the park fences at Aintree in 1998, and the decision to allow Neptune Collonges run in the Grand National on Saturday was a difficult one.  It split his family down the middle, he said.  That his horse should go and win the race was just another one of those magical outcomes in which the Grand National majors.

Modifications have been made.  There are run-offs now at all the fences where once they stretched across the entire track, allowing loose horses by-pass fences if that is their desire, and allowing the runners by-pass fences on the second circuit if there is a need to do so.  The fourth fence has been lowered, the drop on the landing side of Becher’s Brook has been reduced, the brooks have long-since been filled, there are more loose-horse-catchers on the track than ever before, the requirements for participation in the race for a horse and a rider are more stringent than ever.

Importantly, neither fatality was suffered by a fall at a fence per se.  Synchronised fell at Becher’s Brook first time, but he got up and galloped on loose, apparently unscathed.  It was when he fell when running loose five fences later that he apparently suffered his fatal injury.  According To Pete didn’t fall himself at Becher’s second time, he was brought down when another horse fell in front of him.

All of this needs to be taken into account when the authorities sit down to analyse this year’s Grand National.  They should do so in the cold light of day, when the heat of the moment has cooled.  It is important that they assess cause and effect, not just effect.

Of course safety is paramount, you have to do all you can in order to minimise the risk, but you also have to accept that you will never eradicate the risk.  As long as you have horses and racing, as long as you have sport, you will have risk.

Category: Horse racing

Donn McCLean’s National Five

April 14th, 2012 by Donn McClean

Five against the field?  Sunnyhillboy is one.  Has been for a while actually.  Sunnyhillboy is the horse I wanted to back for the National ever since the day that he finished third in last year’s Irish National, after getting hampered at a crucial stage of the race.

He proved that day that he had stamina, something that we didn’t really know about beforehand, and he jumped the stiff Fairyhouse fences really well, all of which augurs well for the Grand National.

Second in a Byrne Group Plate and third in a December Gold Cup, we knew that he had pace and class.  Put that with his stamina, his age (nine, perfect, nine or 10 is ideal), his weight (10st 5lb, perfect), a preparation that included two hurdle races and that has obviously been geared to get him to peak for the Grand National without blowing his handicap mark beyond reasonableness before the weights were published, and a trainer who is just a genius with staying handicap chasers, and you have a strong case.  He is missing AP McCoy, which is a shame – Synchronised saw to that – but Richie McLernon is a good rider, and he gave Sunnyhillboy a fairly faultless ride in the Irish National last year.

Put with all of that the fact that he won a good handicap hurdle at this meeting three years ago on his only previous visit to Aintree, and the fact that he put up what was probably a career-best to win the Kim Muir on his most recent run, a run that happened after the Grand National weights had been framed, which means that he is 10lb well-in for tomorrow’s race, the best-handicapped horse in the race on paper at present (okay, so the race isn’t run on paper, but it’s all we have for the moment), and you have the most likely winner of the race in my book.  I have little doubt that, if AP McCoy was riding him, he would be favourite, and even the 16/1 that they are showing now is too big.

Becauseicouldntsee is another.  He finished second to Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir, proving that he was in top form.  He didn’t have to prove his stamina, he had already proven that when he finished second in the four-mile chase at Cheltenham in 2010, but it was good that he could get his eye in over fences again.  He had finished second behind the classy Galileo’s Choice in a four-runner hurdle race on his most recent run, but his previous run over fences ended at the second last fence in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, so it was good to shove that one back into the annals.

Noel Glynn’s horse is another who has almost certainly been trained all season for this one race.  He was trained for the race last year as well, when he fell at the second fence, but he is more mature this year, he is nine, not eight, he is 2lb lower in the ratings and he is a bigger price than he was last year.  It is easy to see him running a big race.

Killyglen is another.  Like Becauseicouldntsee, he ran in the race last year, but he got as far as the fourth last fence.  Until that point, he had been jumping really well, he seemed to be really taking to the fences.

He gets to race tomorrow of a mark that is 5lb lower than last year’s, which leaves him on a nice racing weight of 10st 4lb, he is still only 10, still the right age for the race, and he comes into the race in top form, having beaten Saddlers Storm – who had run second to Cheltenham Foxhunters’ winner Salsify on his previous run – in a three-and-a-quarter-mile chase at Down Royal on his most recent run.

Rare Bob is a little les obvious, but he may have been under-rated by the market.  The ground was far too soft for him when he finished fifth behind West End Rocker in the Becher Chase last November, but he did jump the big fences well, and he did well to finish fifth.  He would have given Prince De Beauchene a real race had he not unseated his rider in the three-mile handicap chase on the Mildmay course – a course that is often a good pointer to races run on the National course – last April, and he was third in the same race in 2010, having looked a likely winner going to the second last.

He is not obviously well handicapped on a mark of 145, but it is still 7lb lower than his peak rating, and it leaves him on a nice weight of 10st 9lb.  He is trained by Dessie Hughes, who went so close with Black Apalachi two years ago, he ran a nice race to finish third in the Leinster National on his most recent run, and he should out-run his odds.

Finally, Neptune Collonges probably shouldn’t be winning the race under 11st 6lb (no horse since Red Rum in 1977 has carried more than 11st 5lb to victory), but he probably shouldn’t be a 40/1 shot either.  Paul Nicholls’s horse is a high class performer, he finished third in a Gold Cup and he won two Punchestown Gold Cups and a Hennessy.  He is obviously not of that class at present, but his current official rating of 162 is 12lb below his peak, and he gets to race tomorrow off a mark of 157, 17lb lower than his peak.  That gives him a chance.

He ran a cracking race on his most recent outing to just go down by a neck to Giles Cross in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, coming back at the winner towards the end, giving the impression that an even greater test of stamina would suit better.  If he can get into a nice rhythm early on, towards the head of the field and with plenty of racing room, he has the class and the stamina to run a big race.

If three of those five fill the first three places, I’ll send on a postcard from my island.

·      For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Category: Horse racing

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