CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2012

Champion Hurdle
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
4/6 Hurricane Fly, 11/2 Binocular, 6 Grandouet, 7 Zarkandar, 10 Rock On Ruby, 10 Oscar Whisky, 10 Oscars Well, 14 Peddlers Cross, 16 Thousand Stars, 20 Unaccompanied, 20 So Young, 20 Celestial Halo, 20 Zaidpour, 25 Brampour, 25 Overturn, 25 Mikael D’Haguenet, 25 Final Approach, 25 Starluck, 33 Topolski , 33 Bob Ewing, 33 Flat Out (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Queen Mother Champion Chase
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
2 Sizing Europe, 7/2 Big Zeb, 5 Finians Rainbow, 8 Somersby, 10 Peddlers Cross, 14 Hold Fast, 16 Realt Dubh, 16 Kauto Stone, 16 Wishfull Thinking, 25 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
3m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
1/2 Big Buck’s, 4 Oscar Whisky, 7 Thousand Stars, 10 Mikael D’Haguenet, 12 Bobs Worth, 12 Dynaste, 12 Zaidpour, 12 Voler La Vedette, 12 Quevega, 14 So Young, 20 Mourad, 20 Our Father, 25 Poungach, 25 Carlito Brigante, 25 Celestial Halo, 25 Featherbed Lane, 25 Smad Place, 33 Restless Harry, 33 Five Dream, 40 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Cheltenham Gold Cup
3m 2f, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
9/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 7 Grands Crus, 10 Synchronised, 16 Midnight Chase, 20 Quito De La Roque, 20 Quel Esprit, 20 Weird Al, 20 Finians Rainbow, 20 Jessies Dream, 25 Burton Port, 25 Medermit, 25 The Minack, 33 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Triumph Hurdle
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
8 Sadlers Risk, 10 Minsk, 10 Ut De Sivola, 10 Pearl Swan, 12 Dildar, 12 Ranjaan, 12 Grumeti, 14 Hinterland, 14 Hollow Tree, 14 Baby Mix, 14 Kazlian, 16 Tango De Juilley, 16 Hammersly Lake, 16 Balder Success, 20 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Supreme Novices Hurdle
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
9 Steps To Freedom, 10 Galileos Choice, 10 Darlan, 10 Cinders And Ashes, 12 Tour Dargent, 14 Cash And Go, 14 Simonsig, 14 Colour Squadron, 16 Midnight Game, 16 Tetlami, 16 Oscar Nominee, 16 Baby Shine, 20 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Arkle Chase
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
9/4 Sprinter Sacre, 7/2 Peddlers Cross, 4 Al Ferof, 8 Cue Card, 12 Menorah, 16 Bog Warrior, 16 Blackstairmountain,20 Kid Cassidy, 20 Cristal Bonus, 25 For Non Stop, 25 Sanctuaire, 25 Shot From The Hip, 33 bar others on request (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

RSA Chase
3m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
6/4 Grands Crus, 4 Bobs Worth, 8 Last Instalment, 10 Join Together, 10 Sir Des Champs, 10 Silviniaco Conti, 10 Bog Warrior, 16 First Lieutenant, 20 Mossley, 20 Champion Court, 20 Walkon, 25 bar, others on request (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Ryanair Chase
2m 4f, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
6 Noble Prince, 6 Somersby, 7 Rubi Light, 10 Riverside Theatre, 10 Albertas Run, 10 Kauto Stone, 10 Captain Chris, 10 Finians Rainbow, 10 Blazing Tempo, 12 Medermit, 14 Great Endeavour, 16 Poquelin, 16 Tranquil Sea, 16 Jessies Dream, 16 Kalahari King, 16 Quel Esprit, 20 Little Josh, 20 Realt Dubh, 20 Wishful Thinking, 25 Woolcombe Folly, (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
3m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
5 Fingal Bay, 5 Boston Bob, 10 Make Your Mark, 12 Sea Of Thunder, 12 Simonsig, 14 Samain, 16 Mount Benbulben, 20 Ongenstown Lad, 20 King’s Grace, 20 Captain Sunshine, 25 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Neptune Novices Hurdle
2m5f, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
4 Boston Bob, 5 Fingal Bay, 12 Make Your Mark, 12 Simonsig, 12 Batonnier, 16 Sous Les Cieux, 16 Captain Conan, 16 Monksland, 20 Fourth Estate, 20 Mount Benbulben, 20 Oscar Magic, 20 Allure Of Illusion, 20 Broadbackbob, 25 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
2m4f, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
5/4 Quevega, 4 Voler La Vedette, 5 Unaccompanied, 12 Our Girl Salley, 16 Kentford Grey Lady, 16 Alasi, 20 Dare To Doubt (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
4m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
8 Harry The Viking, 8 Soll, 10 Loose Performer, 12 Alfie Spinner, 12 Lambro, 12 Crash, 12 Universal Soldier, 14 Fists of Fury, 14 Allee Garde, 16 Up The Beat, 16 Teaforthree, 16 Baile Anrai, 16 Medical Card, 16 Oscar Dan Dan, 16 Picture This, 20 Strongbows Legend, 20 Start Me Up, 25 bar (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Champion Bumper
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2012
10 Champagne Fever, 14 Venture Capital, 16 Moscow Mannon, 16 Population, 16 Shutthefrontdoor, 16 The New One, 20 Circular Quay, 20 Mozoltov, 20 Silver Concorde, 20 Sword Of Honour, 20 The Paparrazi Kid, 20 The Westerner Boy, 25 Clondaw Warrior, 33 The Mighty Man (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Category: Cheltenham

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Banker has become something of a dirty word everywhere bar the wonderful world of racing and there may be a couple up for grabs this weekend. On the bookmaking front we may be facing a total wipeout but nonetheless the quality of performers should make the next 2 days something of a treat.

Big Bucks has justified favouritism on his last 10 outings and will be looking for his 15th consecutive win at Cheltenham on Saturday when he lines up for the Cleeve Hurdle. No real point in analysis of the form here, he’ll be in every multiple going and in terms of his odds this would have to be the most sensible option.

Sunday will see the reappearance of last years’ Champion Hurdle hero Hurricane Fly and many will be hoping his seasonal debut will be worth the wait. Even though his talent is undeniable, there may be fleeting doubts lurking in the minds of his followers, mine included. Willie Mullins answered one of them yesterday on ATR when he told Gary O’Brien that he’s not worried that it’s his first run of the season, a statement his form would support. I suppose the unease is more a question why he hasn’t run already. This is a horse you’d wrap in cotton wool and of course, not one to take a chance with if he wasn’t 100% so its understandable that Willie has done just this, I just hope that the reasons for his late start are far behind him.

Two they’re the two odds on shots that shouldn’t get beat but then I wouldn’t have a job if every certainty was just that so I won’t ignore his rivals.

I’ve made no secret for my admiration for Unaccompanied and carrying a whopping 9lbs less that the market principle she’s has to be worth a look. The form of the Triumph Hurdle has worked out really well and for me, gives the mare very strong claims as she’s progressed even further this season. If you look at how she had to go from one side of the track to the other, and then back again to come second to a Zarkandar who could be exceptional, she must remain on every shortlist this season. Granted, some questioned whether she would have won the Istabraq hurdle had the race been run differently but my answer to that would be yes.

Thousand Stars is a horse I think has probably run to the best of his ability unlike Oscars Well. I firmly believe the best is yet to come for this horse and I’m convinced he’ll be a big priced winner… I just have to fgure out when that will be. I previously thought he may not be a real 2 miler but then again, is that what is required for the Champion Hurdle? Many would say those that can fair a little farther run better which would put him in the frame. He was desperately unlucky at the festival last year and given some pace I believe his improvement would be significant and if there is a dark horse in the race, he’s it.

Category: Horse racing

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I’m not going to lie, my head is melted, even more so than usual on the eve of the weekend. It’s all happening tomorrow in the UK; the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle while Newbury are hosting the Hennessy Gold Cup and I am really struggling to decide on where best to place my pennies.

The Hennessy has a terrible record for Irish runners which would definitely be a negative for Noel Meade’s Muirhead. He was unlucky last time out when hampered but had previously put in a peach of a performance, claiming victory in Ladbrokes.com Munster National, possibly a small each way option in the race. However, I really liked the look of Great Endeavour at the Open Meeting. He leaped the last awkwardly but immediately dusted himself off and powered home securing a seven length victory, and that’s the type of horse I love, hardy and undeterred. His lucky owner, David Johnson will no doubt be hoping Great Endeavour will fulfil his title and emulate another horse of his, Celestial Gold, who managed the Paddy Power Chase/Hennessy double in 2004. I did raise an eyebrow though on reading that connections were planning to change tactics, my resounding thought being why? If it’s not broken etc… But then perhaps it’s down to a longer trip than the last outing.

Elsewhere in the Hennessy betting, Wayward Prince has been shimmying up the betting all week following sustained support and Michel Le Bon is a real dark horse in the race. I’m not totally convinced of Aiteen Thirtythree’s position in the market, his second in the Graduation Chase was moderate in my opinion while Wymott has been backed by some real judges.

The highlight on the card for Newcastle will be the Fighting Fifth and I simply cannot make up my mind between Binocular and Overturn. I have no real reason for discounting Celestial Halo but I don’t think he’ll win so I’ll forget about him.

Now, Binocular. Where oh where do I start? He’s like one of those people that you meet in life that you really want to see do well but you’re not totally convinced they will. Watching the way he can jump a hurdle is simply brilliant, so fast, so fluid and utterly competent. A worthy Champion Hurdle winner he is, but then, without warning, he can run like he did in the Aintree Hurdle leaving his backers (me being one of them) scratching their heads, docket in hand, wondering where it all went wrong. It just wasn’t him.

Perhaps he had something niggling at him and I’m sure there was an explanation as I don’t think he’s ungenuine by any means, so let’s forgive him, take a leap of faith that he is without niggles and back him. He’s beaten Overturn fair and square in the Christmas Hurdle by almost 4 lengths and must be the more talented horse. But he’s been the beaten odds on favourite not once, but twice in this race before. I can’t split it. Overturn’s price is a lot more attractive but I think I may have to side with JP’s contender on this one, despite a somewhat chequered past I think he can redeem himself and that my pockets will be filled once again.

Category: Horse racing

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Gold Cup hero Long Run makes his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and by all accounts he deserves to be the market leader. However, I think if there is a chink in his armour it will be that his main target will be to emulate his success in the King George and Gold Cup and on his first run last season he came third. On that basis along with his skinny price, I’m going to throw caution to the wind and take him on.

The next three in the betting we’re finding it hard to separate, with Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Kauto Star all level in the betting. Weird Al has the strong benefit of having a win under his belt already this season after winning the Charlie Hall, so the form is certainly there. Kauto Star needs no introduction, one of the best horses of our generation; however age has caught up with him, but to what degree I’m not sure. For the sake of the connections and the public and in fact racing, I’d love to see this horse end his career on a high. With any other horse you would write them off once their form subsides with age but with Kauto, the normal rules simply don’t apply. He’s won this race three times in the past and will be out to win this possibly with a greater hunger than others in the field. But it’s Diamond Harry that I keep coming back to. He’s the dark horse in the race, but his solo performance last season in the Hennessy must make him a value selection in this race and here’s why;

1) This 8 year old has only been beaten three times in his life.
2) He’s won twice at the track before and it suits him
3) He could be bigger on the day as Long Run will come in for strong support and Kauto Star will always have his followers.

It’s definitely a tough race but that’s one perspective.

Back in Ireland, Sunday’s Ladbrokes.com Morgiana Hurdle is an intriguing contest and possibly even more so than if Hurricane Fly was running as he would have been a strong odds on favourite and justifiably so. Pittoni heads the betting owned and trained by a formidable force who take no mercy on us bookies. The Charles Byrnes/Paddy Wilmott combo is one of the shrewdest pairs in the game but still, I’m not convinced of his position in the book. He’s taking on two proven grade performers and I think he could be outclassed on Sunday.

Thousand Stars in any other yard would possibly be their star, but the presence of Hurricane Fly in Willie’s has left him overshadowed but his credentials are superb. A French Champion Hurdle winner with a number of excellent runner up efforts at the highest level, you should have every confidence in him beating the favourite but the worry here is the trip. I hope Willie brings this horse to take on Big Bucks in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and I think as the season progresses so too will the distance he runs over. But Sunday’s contest is over just 2 miles and this sharper trip could be challenging for both him and Jessica Harrington’s Oscars Well. With two Grade One victorys on his CV and a very unlucky defeat at Cheltenham, Oscars Well should be the one to beat. He has had a run in Down Royal, which he probably needed and will be ready to Rock and Roll for this weekend. The negative again will be that both of his wins were over 2m 2 and 2m 4 respectively but although having never clicked over this distance I think his five length victory in the Deloitte over 2 furlongs further entitles him to take his chance over the Champion Hurdle distance.

Category: Horse racing

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The thing about life, I find, is that what you think you know, you generally don’t; what you think you don’t know, you probably do; and the opinions that you hold and believe are unshakeable aren’t. Confused? So too am I.

The reason? Well I’ve been quite the puritan about flat racing, I like looking at pedigrees and times etc.. and at the end of the day it’s faster and isn’t that what racing is all about?

National Hunt racing use to hold a limited appeal for me, cold weather and older horses who have been knocking about for ages. But I have to admit that the jumps game has grown enormously in my affections over the past few years.

When I looked at the card for Navan this Sunday I am really looking forward to heading up. Starting with the Lismullen Hurdle we’ve got Berties Dream, a horse that was the bookies nightmare at Cheltenham in 2010 backed from 50s into 33/1 when winning the Albert Bartlett. He faces Voler La Vadette, a top class mare who won the Ladbrokes Boyne Hurdle at the track here last year, and Mikael D’Haguenet who took a major fall from grace, and indeed over fences after no less than 6 consecutive wins over hurdles, three of which were Grade 1s. Will he be as brilliant on his return to the smaller obstacles or will his confidence be knocked forever? I think he may taste his former glory once again.

An interesting antepost mover this week across the water was Restless Harry who runs in the 4.10 at Cheltenham on Saturday. He has been backed from 33s into 20/1 for the RSA Chase and his last victory at Wetherby, his first win in 18 months, was really impressive. It appeared his jumping improved the further he went and he demolished a relatively competitive field by some 20 lengths. Are the clever punters making the most of his big antepost price in anticipation that his performance this weekend will have us reaching for the scissors to slice his festival price? Perhaps, definitely great expectations.

And what about Jewson winner Noble Prince in the Fortria Chase, already with a win under his belt this season, I think he may get the better of Big Zeb.

The recurring theme here is that by and large, National Hunt racing often has a narrative that flat racing simply can’t compete with. The story of the 11/12 season is just getting started and one horse who I’m hoping will have a happy conclusion to the season is Steps To Freedom, very impressive at Cheltenham and a hugely exciting prospect for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Possibly one to back early on.

Category: Horse racing

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The Breeders Cup is one of the greatest international racing festivals in the world, but seeing as my requests to attend on behalf of Ladbrokes were rejected by my boss, in protest I’m going to completely ignore the fact it’s taking place and focus on the next best, Down Royal.

It may not have a Goldikova or Sarafina, but nonetheless, there are some genuine top quality performers competing throughout the card.

The headline race will be the JNWine Champion Chase on Saturday and a number of runners have strong claims. A horse that has been lightly raced and holds previous course form is The Nightingale, trained by the master Mr Paul Nicholls who has made his presence felt many times before at this meeting.

Former Cheltenham festival winner Sizing Europe also lines up for contest, although his seasonal reappearance may not have lived into the expectations that his previous form suggested when just about beating another rival in this race, Michael Bowe’s Coolcashin.

Another strong entry is Midnight Chase, who ran very well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup while Roi De Mee cannot be ignored from the yard of the clever Mr G Elliot. But how and ever, for me Bostons Angel is the one.

I’ve always thought he has been hugely underrated, albeit quite profitably for me as I backed him at 16/1 for his Cheltenham festival victory back in March. I thought he displayed enormous talent in his 2 victories at Leopardstown before taking the trip across the water and if he continues to improve he should have this one in the bag. He will be tested by Quito De La Roque who has won 6 of his last 7 outings and had been expected to go for the Ladbrokes.com Chase.

In the supporting card I think Galway Plate heroine Blazing Tempo warrants each way support as I think this gutsy mare is capable of putting in a strong challenge in Ladbrokes.com Chase.

In fact, if for a moment I was to forget my boycott of the Breeders Cup, I’d say it will be a fruitful weekend across the globe for the fairer sex and admit I will be tuning in to see Goldikova make history. Again, should I say.

Category: Horse racing

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The saying” horses for courses” didnt just fall out of the sky. Every owner trainer and punter knows that certain horses perform better at certain tracks and I cannot think of a better candidate than Famous Name to whom the term “course specialist” applies.

The Dermot Weld veteran has scored a whopping 9 times at Leopardstown and on just one of the 13 runs hes had at the track did he fail to get placed. For that reason I’m backing him for Sunday’s Trigo Stakes, a listed contest that will provide some decent competition for Smullen’s ride. Never one for taking short prices, I’m going to pop him into a multiple.

The feature on Sunday’s card will be the mouth watering Killavullen Stakes. As much as I love and obsess about racing, from time to time there will be the odd meeting that can be difficult to get excited about, but looking at this race alone, Sunday most certainly isn’t one of them.

The narrative behind the title race is brilliant. Firstly, flat genius, champion trainer, Ballydoyle mastermind etc currently holds 8 entries but I think Oxxs horse Born To Sea will be the one to beat. There is mixed views among us at Ladbrokes as to just how good he is. Being a half brother Sea the Stars he attracted plenty of attention on his debut at the Curragh when he broke his maiden in a listed race first time out.

This compounded both the media and publics’ fascination in the horse which may possibly make him a shorter price that he should be on form but I still think this horse will win. There was a bad head wind at the Curragh when he won and he had to come through horses, which is no mean feat on a first run. I’m not convinced he’s as talented as his half brother but I do think he has a sparkle so I’m popping him in a double with Famous Name.

A cracking card, I think we could see antepost moves for next year so be sure not to miss it.

Category: Horse racing

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The Racing Post Trophy holds an element of sentiment with me as it was pivotal in initiating my obsession with flat racing. I was a little nipper and my dad was parked up in his armchair tuned into Channel 4 to watch the final British Group One of the season. I starred relatively uninterested as the little dots on the screen galloped around the track until one hit the front and almost sprouted wings. It was 1994 and Celtic Swing demolished the field with an awesome 12 length victory. That was the first time racing gave me goose bumps.

But leaving nostalgia behind where it belongs, what’s going to win this year’s renewal? Well it’s no secret that Ladbrokes think the answer is Camelot. We’ve tried to keep him onside since we opened the book but even with our attempts to duck it, the punter’s have come in their droves to back him with their attention extening as far as the Derby, leaving his price for next year’s Classic at 10/1 from a lengthier 16/1 earlier in the week.

He returned at 1/3 for his racecourse debut at Leopardstown so clearly there were very high hopes for this colt before he hit the track. He executed his victory like a pro with young Joseph barely flinching in the saddle as he accelerated for home. There is absolutely no doubt that we have a really talented contender on our hands, but have we discounted the rest of the field too quickly?

Perhaps… And here’s why. The negative is the form of that maiden has not produced a single winner and O’Brien’s horse faced just four rivals that day so the challenge was limited. It’s nearly impossible to see the mental toughness required for a Group One in a small runner race such as it was, with the runner up currently rated just 76.

On form you could argue that Gosden’s contender Fencing is the selection; third to subsequent Acomb winner Entifaadha on his debut, he went on to break his maiden in listed company. His pedigree goes toe to toe with the favourite being the son of French Oaks winner Latice by American sire Street Cry. Camelot is by Montjeu out of a Group three winner so both have the credentials to rise to the top.

Two horses that have been supplemented are Jim Bolger’s Zip Top and Al Zarooni’s Encke. Bolger beat the odds in the Dewhurst with Parish Hall so the yard is certainly on form, whilst Dettori has ridden two winners of this race in the last five years.

But that’s just a mish mash of facts, here is the opinion. I concur with my employers that indeed Camelot is a talented juvenile based on how he looked and raced in his maiden. At odds on however I’d be looking for an alternative and Fencing looks the value to me.

Category: Horse racing

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