For many it’s another excuse for Americans to demonstrate their ability to throw an over the top party of sorts. Never mind the popcorn, Bud Light, Doritos, Madonna, Kelly Clarkson and all the other distractions that accompany a Super Bowl, brace yourself for what should be a cracking finale to the NFL season.

There really is little between the two and a quick scan through the majority of experts displays a clear 50/50 split in opinion. However, on a betting front it would be much wiser to stick with one of the quarterbacks landing the MVP award.

Should the Patriots win it will surely be powered by the right arm of Brady and the 5/4 on offer to be named the game’s most valuable player is a fabulous price.

Brady rarely disappoints in consecutive games and after an indifferent display in the AFC championship match he will be fired up to reaffirm his status as the league’s best passer.

Having tipped the Patriots at 6/1 before the season commenced now is definitely not the time for jumping ship. Despite the likes of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Jean Pierre-Paul bringing a ton of pressure, I expect the Patriots offensive line to provide their QB with enough time to make some plays.

With this in mind you could see a lot of quick throws and slants in the direction of Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez on the night, especially as tight end Rob Gronkowski could be limited due to a high ankle sprain. And the 18/1 on Welker landing MVP is a bet that catches the eye.

This should be a high scoring affair with both quarterbacks taking advantage of a suspect secondary and one does worry about the Giants excellent receivers up against Julian Edleman and co. However when it comes to shootouts, it’s hard pressed not to fancy Brady coming out on top.

Recommendations

Tom Brady MVP @5/4

Wes Welker MVP @ 18/1

Aaron Hernandez first TD scorer @ 8/1

Already recommended

New England Patriots Super Bowl winners @ 6/1

Category: NFL

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The hunt for the Super Bowl reaches the penultimate hurdle with four teams battling it out for AFC and NFC glory.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

An indestructible force meets an immovable object is the age old adage that ties in perfectly with the clash of the Baltimore Ravens defence against the Patriots offense.
Yes, clichéd I know and a line that wouldn’t go amiss with the Jamie Redknapp style of punditry but Tom Brady vs Ray Lewis, Rob Gronkowski vs Ed Reed and the combo of Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata against the Pats offensive line is a battle worth savouring in the AFC Championship game.

It really does boil down to this clash of wills, as the Patriots will look to strike at a rate of knots that will pose serious questions of Joe Flacco and his prowess in the scoring stakes.

With this in mind the Ravens will look to slow the pace down of the game and force the Patriots into field goals and play the clock with the rushing of Ray Rice. However, I just can’t see them keeping tabs with the Patriots. I do feel the defence will cause problems for Brady and likewise for Rice on the other side of the ball, but in the end they will struggle to keep tabs with the New England offense, particularly when they use their no huddle package.

The Patriots were tied for third in the NFL in takeaways, and also didn’t have many turnovers of their own and I expect they could cause an interception or two, especially if the game is put on the shoulders of an inconsistent Joe Flacco.

For a value bet it may be worth siding with BenJarvus Green-Ellis crossing for the first touchdown.

New England Patriots -6.5 @ 4/5
BenJarvus Green-Ellis first Touchdown Scorer @ 15/2

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

Hands up who predicted this match up for the NFC Championship game at the start of the year? Not many paws reaching for the ceiling I presume, as the New York Giants clash with the 49ers in what should be a packed Candlestick Park.

Anyone fortunate enough to have witnessed the 49ers win over the Saints will surely admit watching sport played at its finest, most unpredictable best last Saturday.

Unfortunately, I cannot see the 49ers progressing from here. The Giants are the best team left in the hunt for the Super Bowl with an intensity and style of football that is literally suffocating teams. The defence is a beast at the moment with the best defensive line in football putting the so called untouchable Green Bay Packers offense out of sync in their own backyard. If they can do that in Lambeua Field, they can surely apply similar pressure to Alex Smith and a lesser talented receiving corp.

On the other side of the ball, Eli Manning has reached a peak that his talent has always promised, showcasing an awareness in the pocket that can be unmatched at times. He will need that awareness when avoiding the fast and athletic 49ers defence, particularly rookie Aldon Smith who could cause all sorts of problems.

The clash of the Giants offensive line against the pass rush of 49ers will be a worry for Tom Coughlin, but it’s the weapons on the outside that tips the game in their favour.

Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Mannigham are excellent route runners with terrific speed that can cause match-up problems. Double team one of them and Manning will take advantage on the opposite side and with a strong running game, I really fancy the Giants to progress to the Super Bowl.

For some value it could be wise sticking with Mannigham as first touchdown scorer at tasty odds of 12/1.

New York Giants + 2.5 @ 5/6
Mario Manningham first TD scorer @ 12/1

Category: NFL

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The NFL playoffs continue tonight with Baltimore and Green Bay welcoming some in-form teams into their backyards.

Houston Texans @Baltimore Ravens

The Houston Texans were extremely impressive last week in their first post-season match against the Bengals but their excellent season is sure to come to an end in Baltimore.

As impressive as their defence and run game was on that outing, they face a serious task in overturning the Ravens on their home patch. Baltimore have been building for this ever since they drafted Joe Flacco with their first round pick and with home field advantage, there’s every reason to think they should progress.

Baltimore are extremely competent when defending the run and I expect them to stack the box and put the game in the hands of TJ Yates. While the rookie QB has caught my eye with his play, he doesn’t seem talented enough to beat the excellent Ravens defence.

Ed Reed has been quiet of late and I expect a huge game from him in the secondary, presuming they double team star wideout Andre Johnson. Ray Rice will look to gain plenty of yards on the ground, but I think he could be a huge player in the passing game and could be the difference between the two.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ 10/11
Ray Rice first TD scorer @ 7/2

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

This has all the hallmarks of a classic and if the regular season game is anything to go by we should be in for another nail-biter.

The defending champions have been excellent all year and will look to exploit a somewhat questionable Giants secondary with their explosive offense. Yet there are reasons to support New York on the handicap.

With the Giants able to apply pressure with just three or four men rushing, it gives them the opportunity to drop bodies back into the secondary and close off the lanes for Rodgers and co. With Green Bay welcoming some players back from injury on the offensive line, it would be co surprise to see Aaron Rodgers forced into running the football more than he would like to.

On offense the Giants have all the tools to trouble Mike McCarthy’s men with a receiver set that is as diverse and talented as their counterparts. Coupled with a running game that is gathering momentum and the ingredients are there for an upset.

It would be no surprise to see the Giants scrape a close one, such is the manner of the playoffs to date, and they seem a good bet on the handicap spread.

New York Giants +7.5 @ 10/11

Category: NFL

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The playoffs have so far lived up to its reputation of unpredictability with more drama and excitement than a night out with Mario Balotelli. That should continue with another intriguing double header taking place tonight.

New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers

A fascinating encounter with the hottest team in football, the New Orleans Saints, tackling an environment and team that should see them tested to the limit. There’s no doubting the current form and talent of the Saints side but they face a real challenge in San Francisco tonight against an outfit that will drag them from their comfort zone.

A raucous home crowd, the outdoor conditions and a physical defence, that is one of the best in the league, could disrupt the perfect timing of Drew Brees and co. Yet, the Saints are experienced enough in these conditions and I really expect them to pull clear and progress to the NFC Championship game.

Sean Payton’s men have a diverse run game that can trouble the 49ers and this opened up huge passing lanes against the Lions. Expect the same tonight with the best offensive line in the league holding off the likes of Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, while on the other side of the ball the red zone problems could finally catch up with the hosts.

Field goals will not be sufficient when it comes to competing with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Marcus Colston and Darren Sproles and the Saints should progress in a tight encounter.

New Orleans Saints -3 @ 8/11

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

From a betting standpoint this game is fraught with danger, yet when it comes to entertainment and headlines one could not ask for a better match up.

The most famous man in the world at the moment-Tim Tebow, continues his rollercoaster journey in Foxboro against the golden boy of the NFL-Tom Brady. The prototype passing QB (Brady) against the enigma that is Tebow, whose running skills outweigh the might of his left arm. What more could you ask for?

However, if the Broncos are to win they will need to match last week’s performance against the Steelers in which their passing game led the way. The secondary of the Patriots is the weakness and Tebow will need to attack corners Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty.

I don’t think he’s capable of that and despite the presence of a fearsome Denver pass rush; Tom Brady should post some high numbers tonight. Josh McDaniels returned to the Patriots this week and his knowledge of the Broncos (drafted Tebow and Demaryius Thomas while head coach in 2010) is sure to be a huge a benefit to the coaching staff in New England when preparing for tonight’s match up.

The handicap spread is huge for a playoff game and a tentative vote is given to the Patriots easing their way into the AFC Championship game.

New England Patriots -13 @ 5/6
Demaryius Thomas under 80.5 receiving yards @ 20/23

Category: NFL

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Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Another match that could go either way with both teams entering the playoffs on the back of impressive victories.

The Giants displayed similarities of the Super Bowl side of 2008 against the Dallas Cowboys last week and were highly impressive. Victor Cruz gives the look of a Plaxico Burress while the defensive line showcased an ability to get to the quarterback that will have frightened the life of all gunslingers in the NFC. If they win tomorrow night it would not surprise me to see them go all the way.

Yet, I have a feeling this will be a close contest with the duo of wide outs Roddy White and Julio Jones proving the difference for Atlanta. The Falcons have been waiting for this all year and if they can bypass the pass rush of Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul they could take advantage of a highly suspect Giants secondary.

Matt Ryan knows his record isn’t great in the playoffs and will be intent on showcasing his ability in the outdoors, dispelling the notion that they are an indoor team. The simple fact is they are much better in a dome, but can mix it with the best in different environments.

They paid a kings ransom for Julio Jones and he really has made the difference in recent weeks. An early does of Michael Turner will set up an efficient passing game that could see the Falcons progress.

Atlanta Falcons +3 @ 10/11
Michael Turner first TD scorer @ 6/1

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Despite having some key injury concerns, Pittsburgh remain the team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

No Rashard Mendenhall, no Ike Taylor and a high ankle sprain to Ben Roethlisberger are a major worry for Mike Tomlin, yet I would be surprised if the Steelers don’t progress with ease tonight.

The loss of Ike Taylor will also limit the influence of Troy Polamalu while the high ankle sprain may hinder the movement of Roethlisberger, something the likes of Von Millar and Elvis Dumervil could take advantage of against a weak Pittsburgh offensive line.

Those worries will no doubt push people towards the Broncos on the spread especially with the support of a noisy home crowd. However, the Steelers could alleviate this danger with plenty of quick passes and offloads to the likes of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. Pittsburgh should have enough to score 20 points or more and I think it’s on defence where they will excel.

The most important man will actually not be playing and that’s defensive co-ordinator Dick Le Beau.

Le Beau is the best in the game at confusing opposing quarterbacks and Tim Tebow will struggle tonight to beat an excellent pass rush and scheme provided by the shrewd play caller.

Pittsburgh -8.5 @ evens
Mike Wallace first TD scorer @ 7/1

Category: NFL

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Two teams in earnest that have stumbled into the playoffs square off in a tie that could go either way. While the Bengals have impressed with their play on offense over the regular season, there are a number of reasons why the Texans can come out on top in their first ever playoff game.

Cincinnati was blitzed last week by Ray Rice and the tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate could exploit them once again in the run game, while the return of Andre Johnson could elevate the play of TJ Yates. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball I’m a big admirer of the Texans defence who have rectified the secondary issues of previous seasons with Jonathan Joseph emerging as a real star.

Andy Dalton has made mistakes of late and with the Texans defence ranking third against the pass it could be a long day for the rookie.

Ray Rice nabbed the first TD for us last week at 7/2 and it’s worth following a similar back tonight with Arian Foster looking best placed to be the first to enter the end zone at similar odds.

Houston Texans -3.0 @ 4/5
Arian Foster first TD scorer @ 7/2.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Without doubt the form team coming into the playoffs is the New Orleans Saints and it would come as a major surprise if they fail to bypass Detroit tonight on their home turf.

This is a difficult game to ascertain in ways. Both teams posses QB’s that have passed for over 5,000 yards and face defences that can give away plenty of yards through the air.

However, the Saints have an offensive line that can deal with the strong pressure up front and this will surely give Drew Brees plenty of time to pick holes in the Lions secondary. While I have changed my mind numerous times on the handicap spread as it remains a tempting one for the Lions, I really expect Brees to keep his hot streak going.

The home fans will be at their raucous best and this could lead to problems for Matthew Stafford. Indiscipline could be the defining factor in tonight’s game as the Lions can lose their way when things aren’t going right for them.

Pierre Thomas has five TD’s on the season and is an underrated back that could be used in short yardage situations near the end zone.

New Orleans -10.5 @ 10/11
Pierre Thomas first TD scorer @ 10/1

Category: NFL

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The final games of the regular season is the equivalent of a betting minefield. Year after year, teams with their feet cemented in the playoffs tend to rest key players and hold off on key-plays, thus leaving a slightly lob-sided look to games and in particular winning margins.

Some teams will have little to play for, yet look to finish the season with a high profile victory. However, the safe play is to follow the teams in search of a win. Baltimore falls into the above category, as a loss against Cincinnati coupled with a Pittsburgh win could seem them tumble from the number two seed all the way down to number five.

Cincinnati also has a chance of a playoff place, but one suspects they will fall short at the final hurdle. Baltimore will be out to lay down a marker and receive that first round bye and I really fancy them to come through tonight. For some value it’s worth sticking with one of the best backs in the league, Ray Rice nabbing the opening touchdown at 7/2.

Another team in the exact same position is the San Francisco 49ers. A win tonight in St. Louis will secure a first round bye, however they will fall out of that category should the Saints win and they fall at the Rams. The bad news for the Rams is they could be down to their third string QB directing traffic against the busiest and arguably best defence in the league.

The match of the weekend is undoubtedly the tie between the Giants and the Cowboys in New York with the winner taking the NFC East title and a place in the playoffs.

Having tipped the Cowboys to take the NFC East title before the start of the season at 3/1, it would be rude to jump ship at the final fence. Should either side win it will be by the minimum of margins and I have a feeling the wheels have slightly come off the Eli Manning bandwagon of late. Yes they beat the Jets, but he was only 9-27 in pass completions.

With the Giants struggling to run the ball, DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer could be the X factors tonight with a relentless Dallas pass rush set to give the Cowboys the edge.

Finally two teams that might post runaway victories are the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. The former have been impressive of late, winning three straight games with an average of 30.0 points per game and welcome an indifferent Washington Redskins to Lincoln Financial Field. I expect them to cut loose on Sunday and run up another huge score.

The Atlanta Falcons were embarrassed on national television against the Saints and I expect them to rebuild some pride against one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Michael Turner should have a big game against the second worst run defence as Mike Smith’s men look to gain some confidence going into the playoffs.

Recommendations:

Baltimore Ravens -1.5 @ 5/6
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 @ 5/6
Atlanta Falcons -10.5@ 5/6
San Francisco -9.5 @ 10/13
Ray Rice first TD scorer @ 7/2
Dallas Cowboys winning margin 1-6 @ 4/1

Category: NFL

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The silly season is in full swing now and unfortunately the NFL has joined in on the act. Last week was without doubt the craziest results to date, further emphasizing the ancient adage that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

One team that failed to fire, thus ending their undefeated run, was the Green Bay Packers and I expect a huge performance from them at home to the Chicago Bears.

The Bears will cause problems on defence, particularly with Green Bay missing some key men on their offensive line and star wide receiver Greg Jennings. However, I feel they will come out all guns blazing, spreading the field of play with multiple wide receivers and Rodgers picking holes in a sometimes suspect Bears secondary.

With the Bears down their three best players on offense, this should turn into an easy win for the Packers.

One team that issued a statement last week was the San Francisco 49ers and I’m in shock of the -2.0 line provided by the bookmakers. Seattle really has impressed me of late with a stout defence and strong running game catching the eye. Yes they have the added advantage of home field and the 49ers playing after a short week but Jim Harbaugh’s men really do hold all the aces in this match-up.

The 49ers have not allowed a single rushing TD this year, their offensive line has rectified its protection issues after the debacle in Baltimore and they posses an offense that is slowly evolving into a dangerous outfit. This to me is the bet of the weekend.

Philip Rivers has a 22-2 record in the month of December as a starting quarterback and looked back to his best against the Ravens on Monday night. He will lead his side out against the Detroit Lions in what promises to be an excellent affair and there are plenty of reasons why we should follow the men from California in this game.

San Diego’s offensive line was excellent against the Ravens and has done an excellent job of protecting Rivers of late. Because of this, the QB has posted a passer rating of 100+ in his previous three outings and that should continue tonight if they frustrate the ill-disciplined front seven of Detoit. Yes, the Lions enter on the back of two wins but in their past four outings they have conceded over 27 points in each game.

There will come a time when they will be unable to keep up with their opponents and that could be tonight against an in-form Chargers outfit.

Tim Tebow was brought back down to earth last week by the messiah Tom Brady but it was the non-appearance of the Denver defence that stood out. I reckon they will be back to their best tonight and should limit the effectiveness of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills.

A double that should work out is the Cardinals and Titans both covering their spreads against Cincinnati and Jacksonville respectively.

Finally a player bet that is of interest is Tony Romo passing for more than 265.5 yards. The Cowboys-Eagles match promises to be an exhilarating encounter and one feels that Romo could be playing from behind at some stage and will need to air it out.

Recommendations

San Francisco 49ers -2.0 @ 10/11
San Diego Chargers +2.5 @ 10/11
Green Bay Packers -12.0 @ 5/6
Denver Broncos -2.5 @ 20/23
Tony Romo over 265.5 passing yards @ 5/6
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 & Tennesse Titans -6.5 double @ 5/2

Category: NFL

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The love affair with the Detroit Lions is over as quick as you can say Kim Kardashian and wedding in the same sentence. At the beginning of the year they proved to be everybody’s BFF and the sweetheart of a nation, rising from perennial underdog into school yard bullies.

How times have changed. The bullies have been punished for way too many misdemeanours and a place in the playoffs hangs in the balance. However, they are worth following tonight against a mediocre Oakland Raiders outfit that are also facing a mid-term crisis.

Detroit will struggle against the run, but they should be fine against the pass with Ndamukong Suh returning to a dominant defensive front seven and take them to continue their push to the playoffs at 5/6.

One team that has caught the eye of late is the Arizona Cardinals. They still have an outside shot at a playoff place after winning six straight and this is down to their terrific play on defence. Patrick Peterson has energised them of late and providing John Skelton or Kevin Kolb don’t try and win the game on their own they should be fine.

With Colt McCoy out for the Browns and the Cardinals set to run the ball all day, take the hosts to saunter to an easy win.

The Cincinnati Bengals have had a tough run of late playing some of the best teams in the NFL. They have played arguably the three best defences in Houston, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in four of their last five games and one feels they will run riot against a sub-standard St. Louis Rams.

The pace of the blitzes and schemes will pale in comparison to what Andy Dalton has faced in recent times and I expect the Bengals to easily score more than 23 points.

Another team that can easily pass their total is the New York Jets. I’ve a feeling this might turn into a shootout as Philadelphia, albeit a little to late, look to have found a run of form. Rex Ryan’s men will not go down easy and three TD’s is enough to surpass the total.

For some value take Shonn Greene to nab the first Touchdown of the match at 5/1. The burly running back was outstanding last week and I expect the Jets to run the ball early in the match and pound the rock with Greene the lead battering ram.

Finally a 13/8 bet that will shock me if it fails is a double involving the Saints and the New York Giants. Both teams are brimming with confidence and posses QB’s at the peak of their powers who should have little trouble in dissecting the Minnesota and Washington defences respectively. .

Recommendations

Detroit Lions 5/6
Arizona Cardinals -6.5@ 10/11
Cincinnati Bengals over 23 points 5/6
New York Jets over 20.5 points 5/6
New Orleans Saints& NY Giants win double @ 13/8
Shonn Greene first TD scorer 5/1

Category: NFL

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With the Playoffs on the horizon, there’s no better time to add a Super Bowl winner to our selections, and where better to look than the powerhouses of the AFC – Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

The 4/1 on offer for an AFC North team to win the Super Bowl should give you a terrific run for your money with both the Steelers and Ravens looking the best teams in the NFL aside from favourites Green Bay Packers.

Baltimore really have stepped it up a notch in the past three weeks and could have the added advantage of home field in the playoffs. The only team in my mind that can get the better of them in the AFC is their arch enemies the Pittsburgh Steelers and 4/1 on offer for one of the two to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy is an excellent bet at this stage of the season.

Back to Week 13 selections and we are starting with a team that was a huge disappointment last week, the Atlanta Falcons. They are not good enough at the moment to compete with the upper echelons of the league but they should have enough to beat the Panthers. They still have a chance for a place in the playoffs and Sunday’s match is a must win.

Tim Tebow has proved a huge success for us in recent times and he should keep his winning streak alive when hosting the Bears. The Broncos still have a lot of improving to do, but they are playing a team that is depleted on offense with both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte out-think Kerry without the Gooch, Declan O’Sullivan and Kieran Donaghy and that’s pretty much what you have in Chicago.

Take the Broncos to cover the spread in a low scoring affair.

Another game that should be low on scores is the match-up of Arizona and San Francisco. The Cardinals defence is slowly turning into a unit worth fearing and will cause problems for the 49ers on Sunday. However, I expect Jim Harbaugh to have his side in the right frame of mind for Sunday’s outing. They will be intent on making a statement against their NFC West foes and should pull through by around seven points.

The New Orleans Saints could be in for a close battle against a tough Titans outfit that is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Chris Johnson looks back to his best and will gain a ton of yards against a weak run defence, yet New Orleans still has enough weapons to cope and they should gain a narrow victory.

NFL Week 13 Tips

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ 5/6
Denver Broncos -3.0 @ 5/6
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ 5/6
New Orleans Saints winning margin 1-6 @ 11/4
Houston Texans & Dallas Cowboys win double @ 5/2

Any AFC North team to win the Superbowl @ 4/1

Category: NFL

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