Last year’s All Ireland Hurling Final was widely regarded as a superb game. It was high scoring, full of drama and of course a healthy dose of controversy. The pre-match betting saw Kilkenny made 3 point favourites at even money, and they were 4/9 to win the game in 70 minutes.

The result may be all that ultimately matters when you are tallying betting dockets or counting medals, but it does no harm to cast an eye over some of the footnotes of the game so we can refresh our memories as to how that result was manifested.

As Michael Fennelly was hoisting the Liam McCarthy trophy over his head you would have been very content with having backed the Cats at 4/9. But with 52 minutes gone, Tipp led by two and you might have felt a little more twitchy. Kilkenny pulled back the brace to level the game; that was just before Benny Dunne received both a red card and an entry under ‘Notoriety’ in the A-to-Z of All Ireland’s by having a fair crack at decapitating Tommy Walsh.

Tipp’s response to this setback was the stuff of champions. They reeled off three scores in five minutes and held a three point lead with 10 minutes to go. You could now back Kilkenny at 13/8 in-play. The Cats pull back one point. Then, the penalty. Even a Kilkenny man might admit it was at best debatable. Tipp though, felt robbed. Shefflin rattled the net. Tipp were still clearing their heads after the goal when Martin Comerford struck for goal once more. The Cats went from three points down to four points up in three minutes. Game over.

This Sunday, despite all that has happened over the last 12 months, the same two teams meet at the same venue to play for the same title. The betting lines are remarkably similar to those of 2009, though Kilkenny are warmer favourites by a price or two. The Cats are 4/11 for the match, and 4 point favs on the spread at Evens.

Depending on your perspective you might say Tipp were luckless last year, or you might say Kilkenny pounced on an opportunity when it came their way. I think both assertions are correct, though the latter is more correct than the former. There was nothing wrong with Kilkenny’s second goal and that ultimately was the most telling puck of the game.

If Tipperary are to stop the ‘drive for five’ they must first stop the goals that Kilkenny deliver with fluency of rhyming couplets, of Sugar Ray’s One-Two; with the inevitability of night following day. If you take Kilkenny’s 16 championship matches since the start of the 2007 campaign, there have been only four games in which Kilkenny did not score two goals.

The lesson is that while you may well be out-pointing Cody’s Cats, you must never take your mind off their ability to deliver the one-two that will leave your challenge colder than a 6 a.m. lap of the pitch in February. Tipp know what’s coming, but can they stop it? Well, Mike Tyson was eventually stopped so yes it’s possible, but Tyson was a mess. He wouldn’t have been let carry a water bottle in Cody’s set up where discipline and focus is king.

My advice, back Kilkenny to score 2 or more goals in the game. It’s a better price than Kilkenny to win outright, and you might still be on a winner if Tipp manage to go goal crazy too.

Punt On!

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Fence sitting doesn’t shift units. Experts – and bluffers – have to pick one side or the other so we can either laud or ridicule them after the fact. But looking to the Down and Kildare semi-final on Sunday you can take the back stories and make a strong case for either team.

I don’t particularly favour one side over the other in this game. I opened the betting at Even Money both teams and 15/2 against the draw. Fences don’t come much more comfortable than that. The punters weren’t long about nudging me towards making Kildare narrow favourites however.

Most analysis I’ve read, heard or been force-fed on the game has tipped Kildare, and it’s generally for the same handful of reasons. Let’s have a go at looking at the game from differing perspectives.

Pundit A, lets call him “Kenny O De Dara” may conclude that “Kildare will beat Down”. He would debunk anything Down have achieved this season while bathing in the glow of Kildare’s imperious victories.

He might undermine the Mournemen by saying that Kerry were “there for the taking” when Down beat them. He could point to the loss of the “talisman midfielder” Ambrose Rodgers. He would surely cite how “Kildare have the measure of Ulster teams” having beaten Antrim, Derry and Monaghan. And of course no analysis would be complete without citing the GAA horror flick “Six Days Later” to undermine Down’s tonking of Sligo and the cruel lack of recovery time afforded to the westerners.

It makes a compelling case, but every blow dealt by Kenny has a ready counter, which Pundit B, “Bro Jolly” could deliver with critical precision.

Kerry have been there for the taking for years, but who actually took them? Who has got the job done and for the first time since the back door swung open, prevented Kerry reaching the semi-finals?

Ambrose, yes, will be a loss. A fine player, but so was Canty for Cork last week. So, was Kieran Donaghy for the bulk of the 2009 championship for Kerry, so was Stephen O’Neill for Tyrone for most of 2008. Is Rodgers more important to Down than those players were to their respective teams? Dermot Earley is hardly fighting fit either. The exchange is arguably nearer neutral than catastrophic for Down.

As for having the measure of Ulster teams, I suppose the implication is that all Ulster teams play the same? It’s simply not relevant. Kildare are also good at beating teams that start or end with the letter ‘M’ like Monaghan, Meath or LeitriM. Down are good at beating Leinster teams, they have beaten Offaly and Longford this year – counties with vowels and farming traditions too.

And Kildare also starred in a version of Six Days Later where Monaghan provided the zombies.

This game is very much Down’s to lose, not even Conor Mortimer could kick it away for them.

Despite our guest pundits’ insights, I still can’t split them. Back the draw and also either side to win by 1-3 points. I’m offering a generous 4/5 in our ‘Close Call’ market among our specials.

Punt On!

Category: Featured, GAA

Dublin stand 70 minutes away from their first senior All-Ireland appearance since 1995. Pat Gilroy is on the brink of boldly going where four consecutive predecessors have failed. The bridge back to Pat O’Neill, now 15 years in construction, nears completion.

The much criticized exiling of Ciaran Whelan, Jason Sherlock and Shane Ryan will be written to history as genius rather than folly if Ath Cliath Nua can overcome Cork on Sunday afternoon. Such are the thin lines that divide the simplistic judgment of Trojan effort.

How Gilroy was ridiculed for rising his players in the winter months, training under floodlights while most dreamt under duvet. Bleary eyed footballers overtaking milkmen and postal workers on the M50 to ensure they weren’t fodder for reprimand at dawn sprints. How the defensive ethos of the team was sneered at with disgust by Dublin’s own supporters. The swagger gone, benched for work rate. David Henry broke the record of the highest first goalscorer odds ever given to a Dublin forward. The number on the jersey mere camouflage for a deeper strategic role. 33/1 to goal. 33/1 to shoot at goal may have been fairer.

The grumbles of discontent on Hill 16 have been transformed to a demand for beatification of the panel and management following the victories over Armagh and Tyrone.

As Dublin’s stock has risen from a low ebb last season, Cork’s has offered something of a mirror image. The media struggled for superlatives as Cork out-muscled and outplayed Tyrone at this stage last year, then went on to pick up a National League title. However Cork’s failure to progress through Munster and to beat a vulnerable Kerry team was the starting gun for a summer of criticism  for Conor Counihan’s athletic and youthful side.

Acknowledgement of big wins over Cavan, Wexford and Roscommon, plus a business like dismantling of Limerick’s challenge in extra time have been set aside with the focus more on Cork’s poor shot selection when the Munster game was there to be won against Kerry.

My view on the game – as ever – is all in the prices. We at Ladbrokes offer a standout 7/4 against Dublin here. I could argue that even that price is short, but I’d not be long left in the job if I was laying 2/1 when I’d lay as much at 7/4!

Cork have been to the business end of the Sam Maguire hunt several times in recent years. They know what it takes to win a semi-final. They have an embarrassment of attacking options and I don’t think Dublin’s pressure game will consistently be able to stifle all points of attack simultaneously. Cork will most likely start with nine players who should expect to kick at least one point on the day. Dublin simply don’t have that range of attacking threat.

I’ll be loading up laying the Dubs on Sunday, but with the superb progress they are making, that’s a view likely to change by next summer. Gilroy would tell you himself, this is a work in progress, not the piece of work on which he would wish to be judged.

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The single greatest difficulty facing both punters and bookies in the battle for GAA profits is the lack of genuine form in the book. The league is a glorified pre-season, the pre-season is a colleges benefit, and the championship has shot its bolt just as we were starting to really enjoy it. However, I’ll leave the structural overhaul article to the dozens of GAA writers who have produced it in recent weeks, and I’ll get on with making some money.

The point is, that with so little proven about most of the teams, we are tempted to bulk up on the weeds of speculation as the crops of knowledge are so thin. I’d advise a little more selectivity in the diet.

Waterford come in to the game as Munster champions, a battalion of veteran warriors bolstered by talent from recent underage successes. Tony Browne and Brick Walsh are being talked about as Hurler of the Year contenders. Dan Shanahan is back to summoning ‘Dan The Man’ yelps from Marty Morrissey commentaries while John Mullane adds to his legendary status every day he picks up the hurl.

There’s something operatic about Waterford hurling. The victories heroic, the defeats tragic. But a stoney heart, cold to the emotional drama can pick a few holes. I’ll be holidaying in Bundoran rather than Tramore after this I think, but I’ve yet to see a bookie win a popularity contest…

This was a handy Munster title. Cork did the dirty work by knocking Tipp out in the first game. Waterford found themselves in a Munster final by doing no more than tying the handicap line against a Division 2 side on a bank holiday Monday outing. Once in the final they needed two attempts and extra time to get the better of Cork. They were great games, very enjoyable, but what sticks in my mind is Waterford’s inability to close out the deal in normal time when Eoin Kelly had three scoreable chances to spare their legs. Cork were unable to punish Waterford, but I think Tipp will be less forgiving.

Tipperary came within a disputed penalty and a moment of madness from Benny Dunne of muzzling the Kilkenny five in a row talk by halting the run at three. They were toe to toe and point for point with the greatest team of all time until their late heartbreaking collapse. Their return to championship hurling this year saw them lose their Munster title with a poor performance against Cork. They were flat, lacklustre, lethargic and outhurled.

They look to have rediscovered their mojo through the qualifiers, dishing out comprehensive beatings to Wexford and Offaly before facing Galway in an All Ireland quarter final. This was a defeat-turned-victory as Tipperary hurled with authority, invention and belief as they battled clock and scoreboard while the stewards shuffled to their end of match positions. Galway got a lesson in hurt that howled with resonance of Tipp’s September mugging by Kilkenny.

Tipp’s half forward line has attracted an innordinate amount of discussion this year. The facts are that Gearoid Ryan and Seamus Callinan (when introduced) both scored goals from that sector against Galway. I imagine there are not many counties that wouldn’t swap their half forwards for Tipp’s. Tony Browne and Brick Walsh’s nominations for Hurler of the Year will sink or swim on Sunday, I think they’ll clock up more miles in retreat than attack.

At 2/5 I wouldn’t put anybody off backing Tipp and I’m be happy to take on Waterford at 5/2. Tipp give up 3 points on our handicap and they are well capable of covering that spread also.

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Category: GAA

Now that we are down to four sides in both the hurling and football championships, we will perhaps be spared any further talk about radars. In fact, if I were allowed to forward any motions to the next congress I would propose that the GAA gets a new radar that no team is capable of coming in under. A second motion could also be proposed to mow all of the long grass that teams might be hiding in.

If one had been in a position to read this mythical radar this season, it would have been rather unlikely to detect the progress of Kildare and Down to the All Ireland semi-finals. Seemingly, playing every week is now a good thing and gaps between games are bad. Oh no, that’s not right. Sligo and Monaghan’s hideous qualifier collapses are the counterpoint to that tune. Maybe what we’ve learned is that winning every week is a good thing – though that’s hardly news is it?

It’s interesting to see how people latch on to trends. A few weeks back there was a flurry of drawn games in the championship. The following week we laid more bets on draws than I had ever seen. Last weekend we saw the twin towers of footballing consistency brought to their knees as Tyrone and Kerry suffered a radar malfunction at the expense of a semi-final spot. This weekend punters confidence in the favourite is at an all time low – now there are no bankers, no sure things, no shoo-ins. Next year I won’t be able to lay a penny on the provincial football winners in their quarter-finals.

I expect the bulk of analysis of this weekend’s hurling semi between Cork and Kilkenny will be of the essence that Kilkenny should win, but after last weekend anything could happen.

Listen.

Anything could always have happened. The fact it happened twice last weekend has nothing to do with this weekend. Nor has radars and long grass.

This Kilkenny team are the greatest gathering of men ever to carry timber. The present has already judged them so. History will probably further elevate them. Yet bizarrely there is talk that Cork could upset them. Yes Cork with its mish mash of reformed Ozballers and lanky footballers – that failed to beat Waterford – are somehow going to beat Kilkenny.

Ok, there is SOME chance that Cork will win. A 5/1 chance to be specific. But it’s a 9/2 chance that Kilkenny will win by 16 points or more. The handicap spread is set at 8 points. That’s right, us bookies are giving Cork an 8 point headstart in the interests of forming a competitive market – that’s how mismatched these teams are.

Maybe I’m under-rating Cork. Maybe they’ve got the fire in the belly and the pride in their heart but they simply haven’t shown us that they have the hurling or the physicality to beat the greatest team of all time.

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Category: GAA

As soon as the draw was made for this weekend’s quarter finals and Down landed the defending champions, you just knew we were going to be subjected to relentless nostalgia pieces about the olde times. Tradition has its place in our games of course, but lordy it gets spread on a little thick sometimes. Scanning for opinions on the game on the highways and byways of the internet some people believe that Down’s football tradition and proud record will stand to them against Kerry on Saturday – I honestly just can’t accept that at all.

Games played before these players were even born can have no bearing on the outcome of this game whatsoever. What’s gone before is for the media, the fans and the history books. Anyone looking to make money out of the game would be better off tuning out from the Mick O’Dwyer interviews and spend more time analysing this year’s form.

Now a Division 1 team, Down are improvers and can be content with their efforts this year. An extra time win over Donegal and a four point defeat to Tyrone ended the provincial road while skinny wins over Longford and Offaly saw them get a shot against beaten Connacht finalists Sligo. The 19 point win there simply can’t be taken at face value, and I’d be inclined to dismiss it altogether. Four points worse than Tyrone and four points better than Longford is an assessment that holds much more water for me.

Down are at the zenith of their season, but you get the feeling that Kerry are just stretching having stepped out of bed. The Kingdom’s suspension woes are largely offset by the embarrassment of riches they keep in reserve. In line with the Tyrone form, we make Down four points inferior to this Kerry side on our handicap line.

Tyrone’s maturing masters have followed Kerry’s lead by reaching the business end of the season as the crow flies, duffing up some provincial neighbours as a warm up before setting foot in Croke Park. Tyrone have had some great battles with Dublin over the last decade but this is arguably the weakest Dublin side they will have met in championship football under Mickey Harte’s reign.

Dublin’s true form is hard to pin down. The Louth win has too many mitigating circumstances for us to say Dublin are worthy of a semi-final place. Eoghan O’Gara’s goalscoring threat is a much needed alternative point of attack to Bernard Brogan, and Bryan Cullen’s resurgence is also noteworthy and a credit to the man’s character to get back in the side having spent so long in the cold. That being said Dublin are a work in progress, just like Down really. And just like Kerry, there’s nothing “in progress” about Tyrone whatsoever. They are the real deal and I expect them to take care of business before putting some manners on Cork in the semi-final. We offer a best price 5-2 for any optimistic Dubs out there.

The Meath and Kildare quarter-final is a difficult puzzle to solve. I couldn’t decide who to make favourites so I am offering bigger than evens for both sides and I’ll let the money pick the favourite nearer the weekend, because for all the analysis – its the money that talks in this game!

Punt On!

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Category: GAA, Gaelic Football

Meath were our worst possible result for Leinster. Having laid them at prices as big as 6/1, we at Ladbrokes were as disgusted as any Louthman at the infamous passage of play that saw the Wee County robbed of a provincial title and Ladbrokes robbed of a near skinner of a book. Empathizing with the Louth men we decided to pay all bets on them for the match and province outright as winners. No point in spinning yarns about it, it wasn’t the most expensive concession we’ve ever offered, as the majority of our liabilities were stacked against Meath, nevertheless the payouts would have taken some of the sting out of the disappointment Louth supporters suffered.

There’s some cracking games this weekend as the qualifiers heat up. Dublin’s footballers are yet to convince the media or their supporters of their ability to have a worthwhile run through the summer. The Dubs have a different set of standards to live up to than most teams though. It’s hard to imagine any side coming in for as much criticism as Dublin did after their eight point win over Tipp. This is knockout football now and all that counts is getting through.

Armagh will pose a major threat to Dublin on Saturday. We’ve priced the Dubs as narrow favourites at 8/11 and offer Armagh at 11/8. Bar the Monaghan game where the mitigating circumstances of being down a man by half time and suffering a tactical checkmate at the hands of Banty and Grimley, this Armagh side has done little wrong. Jamie Clarke and Steven McDonnell have between them the youth and experience, the zip and the guile, to turn an embarrassing spotlight on Dublin’s loose defending again. I think the game will be there for the taking by the more composed team in the dying minutes and historically will become a landmark game for both victors and vanquished. If pushed I’d side with Armagh but there’s very little between the sides as I see it.

Derry’s run through the qualifiers has been arguably soft thus far, well that all ends on Saturday as the busy and robust game plied by Kildare comes to town. The aura of Derry’s invincibility at Celtic Park was punctured by Armagh earlier this summer and that’s a boost for the Lilywhites who played their third successive game against Ulster opposition having drawn with – and then beaten – Antrim in recent weeks. It’s hard to split the sides again but I’ve gone with Derry as 4/5 favs because I think home advantage is such a factor in the qualifiers. As county sponsors we’re firmly rooting for the Oak Leafers of course!

Finally a look at the Ulster Final. Monaghan have been ruthless in their destruction of Ulster opposition on their way to the Clones showpiece. While some may question whether there is a ‘home’ advantage here, I firmly believe that it’s certainly more in Monaghan’s favour to play at Clones rather than say Casement Park. They have been backed from 13/8 in to 11/8 to take the victory in 70 minutes so there is certainly no shortage of belief from the betting public in Monaghan’s ability. That being said, a motivated and fit Tyrone team is a unique force in the game and one that no many have bettered. For me, its a question of hunger and I think Monaghan might want this silverware more, but looking at my book on this game, I hope I’m wrong.

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Category: GAA, Gaelic Football

Cork look to pass another milestone on their return to the top of hurling’s pecking order today when they meet Waterford in the Munster Final at Semple Stadium.

The Rebels go in to the showpiece as 4/9 favourites to win over 70 minutes, its 10/1 the draw and we go 2/1 about a Waterford win.

Cork derailed Tipperary’s bid for a third successive Munster title when they stunned them in the opening provincial game. Aisake O hAilpin was the chief menace to Tipperary’s defence that day but as seen in the semi-final against Limerick, the element of surprise in his play may well now be on the wane and we’ll probably see Waterford sit someone on top of John Gardiner to stop the supply reaching the Rebels target man. Nevertheless we still reckon O hAilpin to be one of the most likely scorers and we have him priced at 7/1 to score the opening goal, sharing favouritism with his team mate Pat Horgan – a man in a rich vein of scoring this summer.

Waterford seem to have one or two superb performances in their locker every year to produce when least expected and the incentive of bowing out with a Munster title will certainly appeal to some of their elder warriors who may be considering hanging up the timber. They didn’t particularly impress in their semi final win over Clare – a formline that looks even weaker when you take Dublin’s win over Clare yesterday in to account but the likes of John Mullane is perhaps due one of those talismanic days we have come to expect from him. The De La Salle forward is even money to score 4 or more points in the game, or you can oppose him at 8/11 if you think he’ll score less than 4.

It’s a 4 o’clock throw in at Thurles make sure you join us for our range of in-play markets throughout the game.

Category: GAA

Louth and Meath contest the Leinster Senior Football this afternoon at Croke Park where there is a 2 o’clock throw in. These neighbouring counties along the River Boyne make for an unusual pairing in a competition which has been dominated by Dublin in recent years – however it would seem there is a changing of the guard in the eastern province and its the Royal County of Meath who are red hot favourites today at odds of 2/9. It’s 4/1 a Louth win in 70 minutes and we offer 9/1 about a draw.

Punters looking to our handicap will see a 5 point spread with Meath Even money to cover it, Louth are 10/11 with the 5 point start and its 10/1 a handicap tie – that’s Meath to win be exactly five points.

Joe Sheridan has lit up the Leinster championship this year with his goalscoring and he can be backed at 7/1 to score the opening goal today, or 9/4 to raise the green flag anytime during the game. He heads up the goalscoring markets alongside fellow Meath forward Shane O’Rourke, Stephen Bray and Cian Ward.

But its certainly not all about Meath today, you’d be hard pressed to find a better midfield pairing in the country at the moment than Louths duo of Brian White and Paddy Keenan. These two players will win plenty of ball, create chances and they are also well capable of taking scores too. Brian White is Louth’s expert from placed balls and we have pitched his points total at 3 and a half. You can take 8/11 that White scores 4 or more points throughout the game or evens that he goes under 4.

It’s sure to be a special day for Louth in particular and us bookies will certainly be cheering the underdog along in this provincial final, join us for in-play markets throughout the game.

Category: GAA

Considering the supposed quality – or at least the reputation – of many of the teams in the draw for the 2^nd round of football qualifiers, it has to be said its a fairly tame set of pairings. There’s certainly a few interesting ones admittedly but on the whole it looks like being a weekend where we are going to be laying lots of accumulators on the hot favourites.

I expect we’ll need one or more of Cork, Derry, Dublin, Down, Armagh or Kildare to slip up for us to emerge with a decent profit. Of those sides Derry and perhaps Dublin look the most vulnerable. We were already at the far end of the market with Dublin before their team was announced for the Tipp game, and at odds of 1/5 they are certainly a side we’re looking to lay. Pat Gilroy has made a raft of personnell changes from the Meath defeat – probably no bad idea considering the shellacking they took – but the nature of the changes has puzzled Dubs supporters no end. I expect that John Evans will have scented blood from the bewildered jackeens and he will send his well drilled Tipperary boys in for the kill. I doubt if the 4/1 Tipperary will last till throw-in.

It’s very hard to predict how either Derry or Westmeath will perform as both sides have been erratic in the extreme this year. We are biggest price Derry at 8/15, partly because as county sponsors we like to offer a bit of value to Derry gaels keen to punt their team and also because Mullingar is a very tricky assignment, and Derry for one reason or another, are struggling to field a settled line up.

Fermanagh made a fool of me a few weeks back when I sided with them to give Monaghan a tough test in their Ulster semi-final. In truth they offered little on the day and Monaghan punters must have spent most of the second half planning how to spend their winnings. I’m not making that mistake again this week. We offer a best price 10/3 about the Ernesiders as they host an Armagh team that was unforgiving in its destruction of Donegal’s back door challenge. Fermanagh could be in for another very painful afternoon.

It would be great for the GAA and indeed great for Ladbrokes if Louth somehow managed to get the better of Meath in the Leinster final. Meath are so big, powerful and pacy in attack that I can’t realistically see the Louth defence living with them, but fingers crossed it will be Louth’s day and I’ll happily pay out the punters who take 4/1 about the Wee County.

Sunday of course also brings us one of the great days of the Irish sporting calendar as Cork and Waterford contest the Munster Final. Cork’s league performances and the win over Tipp makes them the form choice here. The winner here goes straight to an All Ireland semi-final and avoids meeting Kilkenny on the way to Croke Park. Cork look a united bunch and very much focussed on having a shot at the Cats in September, I think they’ll edge a close game.

Good luck with your bets on a fine weekend of Gaelic games.

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Category: GAA