Our topic for the day is the Dublin footballers, specifically focusing on their goalscoring exploits with a view to predicting how many times they will raise the green flag against Wexford in Sunday’s Leinster Final.

Early money in the market warrants a great deal of respect. It generally comes from punters who see a price that’s so likely to move they need to act fast to take the value before either a) someone else does or b) the oddsmakers modify their own view on the market. Such was the case earlier this week when our lines on Dublin Total Goals came under noteworthy attack.

The punters believed we at Ladbrokes had pitched our estimate for Dubs’ goals too low and so they played the ‘Overs’ markets.

You’ll not have to read too many previews of any Dublin game before a pattern emerges among the columnists’ assertions that the Dubs are a ‘goals’ team. The argument being most counties could match them point for point, but the Dubs’ goalscoring abilities will ultimately tell against all but perhaps Cork and Kerry.

There is also a proven statistic that games at Croke Park feature more goals than games played elsewhere.

Looking at league form, Dublin scored two or more goals in seven of their eight games, only failing to goal twice – in fact at all – against Monaghan. When you consider that only 50% or so of NFL games have two or more goals in their entirety, its a pretty remarkable feat from Pat Gilroy’s attack.

I think the most interesting thing, is what happens next.

Having stuck two goals a game past Division 1 opposition throughout the spring, they then failed in consecutive championship games against Division 2 teams to achieve the same return on major scores. The Dubs scored only a solitary goal in each of their victories over Laois and Kildare.

The argument can be made, and I would certainly make it, that to use league form to predict championship outcomes is a path fraught with danger. Dublin were noticeably ahead of many of their Division 1 opponents in terms of fitness throughout the league, whereas there should be more parity in terms of athleticism and stamina once the summer wheels round. Even counties who don’t boast a treasure trove of natural footballers can adopt a Duracell type policy where they run, kick, tackle and pressure relentlessly for 70 minutes.

So, considering our admittedly small dataset of Dublin’s most recent matches perhaps we could tentatively conclude that championship goals are harder to come by than league ones.

Looking back to 2010, Dublin scored nine goals in seven league games, but in summer managed only six goals in their seven championship games. Maybe we’re on to something here. That “2 Goal” mark or “Over 1.5” as it appears in the betting industry markets has been achieved by Dublin only once in their last nine championship outings over the past two years.

Well maybe the interest in punting the goals is down to Wexford’s leaky defence?

Not quite.

Wexford are now on a run of six championship games, going in to their seventh where they have not conceded a goal. In fact they have conceded only one goal in their last ten championship games, that against Dublin last season when they drew 1-9 to 0-12. (Dublin went on to score another goal in extra time but for 70 minutes betting purposes it is statistically irrelevant.)

So to recap, Wexford conceded ‘Over 1.5 Goals’ on no occasion in their last 10 championship games, and Dublin have scored ‘Over 1.5 Goals’ just once in their last 10 championship games.

I’d certainly be looking for a bigger price than the 6/4 that the early shoppers bought this week on Dublin hitting the back of the net twice. In fact the 4/7 on offer about Under 1.5 Dublin goals looks very inviting – doesn’t it?

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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In the tricky quest to find some value winners in the first round of the football qualifiers you may find some worth in noting the market movers. Here I’ll talk you through our thinking on some of the price changes made in the run up to today’s games.

A question I’m often asked is “How much money does it take to change a price?” To ask the question is to misunderstand the dynamic of the market. As John Maynard Keynes retorted when challenged about his shift in position on monetary policy: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”

In the case of the Sligo v Wicklow game the changing fact is that Sligo travel to Wicklow missing a significant number of players who would be expected to deliver the top level of performance that the county team is capable of. In the absence of these players our original price of 11/8 against a Wicklow victory was overly generous, so without seeing any significant amount of money for Mick O’Dwyer’s side we took the measure to reassess the game and move Wicklow in to 11/10.

Our price of even money Sligo is the best in the industry today. It’s not so much that we’re ‘out to get them’ but an under-strength side having been beaten by Leitrim then having to travel the breadth of the country for a first round qualifier tie look a selection that we’d struggle to lay at odds-on.

Another side that we are now stand-out against is Offaly. Having suffered a brutal beating against a county that they historically wouldn’t feel inferior to when Wexford wiped the floor with them, they were then dragged in to the controversy surrounding their county’s hurling counterparts when a high profile pundit – and a platoon of internet gossipers – questioned how they ‘refuelled’ between games. John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan quit the panel, and of course Offaly would not be renowned for blazing a trail through the qualifiers.

Even with a home draw things are stacking against Tom Cribben’s side. Monaghan on the other hand were nobly defeated by Tyrone, perhaps exceeding expectations as a new-look championship side took the game to the Ulster champions. A hard luck story in Dick Clerkin’s sending off presents an opportunity to ponder what might have been; they seem to be a unified and focussed panel that expects to improve through the qualifiers. We have the Ulster side in to 4/11 with Offaly now available at 3/1.

One selection that has been moved by market forces rather than team news is Down on the handicap against Clare.

We went up with a six point line on this game, Down at 10/11. It didn’t last so long. We saw interest from some customers whose view we respect and it became apparent that we were going to end up in an extreme position if we didn’t alter the prices. We cut Down to 4/5 and saw yet more money, so we went 4/6 and also opened up a new line at 7 points for customers who wanted odds closer to even money on their handicap pick.

Teams like Clare can be difficult to assess. They don’t get a lot of airtime or a lot of column inches. Their team news or reports on camp morale tends not to displace any of the headlines on the sports bulletins. What does reveal everything we need to know about Clare however is the weight of money opposing them. The punters penny is the key indicator, and we haven’t seen many notes cross the counter accompanying a docket with Clare +6 or Clare +7 on it.

Punt On!

Category: Featured, GAA

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Plenty of interesting games this weekend. Tyrone and Monaghan make their summer bow at Healy Park in a repeat of last year’s Ulster Final. Monaghan came in to that game with high hopes on the back of high scoring wins over Fermanagh and Armagh. They were extremely well supported in the market, no bigger than 5/4 when David Coldrick threw-in at Clones.

What followed was an enormous disappointment to the Farney as they were comfortably beaten while registering a pitifully low tally of 0-7. What was set to be the glory day of Banty McEneaney’s reign at Monaghan ended in dejection. A four point defeat to Kildare six days later ended Monaghan’s summer. And with the eventual departure of their manager, a memorable chapter in Monaghan football met a dissonant cadence.

It hasn’t been easy picking up the pieces since. Damien Freeman retired, Tommy Freeman emigrated, as did Rory Woods. Kieran Hughes picked up a long term injury, while the queue out the treatment room door for less serious twinges, tweaks and strains does little to boost confidence.

A team that in optimal condition was 10 points off Tyrone last summer now faces them with what can at best be called serious gaps in personnel. 5/4 to beat Tyrone last year, 11/4 this year is perhaps the most telling indicator of how this transitional Monaghan team ranks in the minds of the betting industry and its ever knowledgeable clients.

What of Tyrone? Ulster champions in three of the last four years, and All-Ireland winners the other, yet always the doubts that battle-weariness has infested Mickey Harte’s side. They may have been on the road longer than Forrest Gump, but they still have enough in them to win this home fixture and cover the 3 point spread at 10/11.

While his former troops put Tyrone to the test, Banty’s new platoon Meath get their Leinster campaign underway against Kildare at Croke Park. We make Kildare 4/7 favourites, offer 15/2 the draw and its 7/4 Meath. Its very hard to know what to expect from Meath, and just as Seamus McEneaney stunned the GAA world by putting Darren Hughes in goal last season, he has done it again by calling the seemingly retired Graham Geraghty in to the panel. Whether its the act of a genius or a madman only simplistic hindsight will tell, but there is no doubt that it is a poor reflection on the current crop of Meath’s forwards that such a measure was taken.

Kildare have had an unfair share of serious knee injuries, and reshuffled in their win over Wicklow to the extent that one of the game’s great forwards John Doyle was drafted in to midfield. There’s still plenty of attacking threat in the Kildare team; Alan Smith and James Kavanagh will test any defence. The problem with Kildare is their lack of efficiency in converting chances to scores. They will either become less profligate or pay dearly for it this season.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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Seven championship matches across the provinces this weekend present an excellent opportunity for punters to roll up a few short priced favourites and further swell their betting coffers. The world and his dog backed Donegal to overcome the handicap against Antrim last week so we know that you lot are not light of pocket this week.

Here’s some stats that might help you on your way. Fermanagh, yes Divison 4 dwelling Fermanagh, playing in the most competitive of all provinces have not conceded a championship goal in their last six outings. Bearing in mind that these lads were outsiders for the vast majority of these games it is a rather impressive achievement.

You have to go back to the replayed Ulster final of 2008 to find a green flag being raised behind a Fermanagh goalkeeper. With little to be upbeat about in their league performances and more talk of splits than a celebrity gossip magazine, the Ernesiders here have something of value. Continuing this vein of defence frugality will see them ask some probing questions of Derry.

Here’s another. Wicklow have conceded only 3 goals in their last 11 championship outings over three years. It suggests that Kildare will need to excel in their point scoring if they are to cover the spread. Have a think back to last summer, and despite being the width of a Kalum King fingernail away from reaching the All-Ireland final, you’ll probably recall that Kildare were guilty of some of the most outrageous wides seen in recent Championship history.

This next statistic is a rather damning one. Bar token victories over New York and London, Leitrim have not won a championship match in five years. There’s little to suggest that there’s anything coming down the track to arrest this downward trend. Sligo will be the cornerstone of many multiple bets this weekend at 1/5. Us bookies can but hope that somehow they will underperform while Leitrim deliver the kind of performance that kicks form and accumulators clean out of Markievicz Park.

If there is to be an upset this weekend, Portlaoise looks the most likely setting. Division 4 champions Longford take on Division 2 runners up Laois. Longford have built some good momentum and have Paul Barden in exceptional form – he has scored a goal in each of his last 3 appearances for Glenn Ryan’s side. Laois blow hot and cold. Too often when showing great promise they fail to deliver. At 4/11 I’d rather have them in my book than Longford at 3/1.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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I wowed an impressionable mind this week. The boy looked on perplexed as I took a permanent marker to an old t-shirt and wrote the words “Ask me who’s going to win the All-Ireland” on it. I proceeded to envelope myself in the defaced garment in the usual fashion, then sported another top over it – concealing the scrawled instruction.

I took the boy to a family function and told him I had granted the gift of x-ray vision to all our relations. The lad was agog as one after another the men shook my hand, told me I was putting on weight, and asked me who was going to win the All-Ireland. Familiarity with the rhythms of the season present irresistible opportunities for sorcery.

Not content with being given the winner of the All-Ireland, everyone also wants an absurdly big price on a ‘dark horse’. It’s a curious phrase. Back when I devoted more time to studying horseracing, rather than unravelling county championship structures that would exasperate the Bletchley Park Enigma team, it seemed to me that dark horses actually won most races. Grey horses on the other hand were seldom paraded in the winners enclosure.

This year Donegal are the Grey horse. They remain at a big price – 33/1 for the All Ireland. Though if everyone expects them to overachieve then surely their bar of expected achievement has moved? However while we are busy tying ourselves up in complicated knots of logic, there is a man bracing against a sandy Bundoran gale stroking a 66/1 docket that could yet pay for relocation to a sunnier seaside resort.

Acid tests used to involve Pink Floyd’s Dark Side Of The Moon album, now everytime an important match is played it is apparently an acid test. Donegal have one against Antrim on Sunday. We’ve made them four point favourites, but we are on the Dark Side Of The Antrim Injury News. A gush of well-being among McCanns and McGourtys would certainly increase Antrim’s chances of repeating the magnificent scalping of their hosts in 2009. I side with the Grey Horse to clear this hurdle however and move on to greater Acid Tests. Donegal -4 points at 10/11 the fancy.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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Dublin may garner the bulk of column inches and airtime this weekend as they bid to pump the city’s hurling fortunes to a higher watermark than seen in most of our lifetimes by defeating Kilkenny.

While the young footballers representing Cavan in the All Ireland U21 final perhaps carry even greater hopes than those of Dublin’s hurlers, as a county familiar with patronizing platitudes about its GAA heritage has an opportunity to add to the small collection of colour photographs that adorn the bars and barbers across the Breffni. There is a real chance that reminiscence about the Polo Grounds final will – for a while – no longer top the agenda when Cavanmen talk Gah.

However, and I acknowledge this may be considered a radical view, the most important inter-county game to be played this weekend and so far this year is the Division 2 hurling final. It is the only league final where something more than a chance to publicly thank the backroom team is available to the winner. But really, the value isn’t in the winning of this game. There won’t be bonfires lit nor odes penned to celebrate the capture of the Division 2 title, but defeat, and another season in the wastelands of inter-county hurling for the vanquished will rise keening, harsh words and bleak introspection.

Knocking the stuffing out of developing counties is no way to prepare for the championship. Wexford stepped out of the Division 2 quagmire as champions last year and took an 11 point beating through the front door followed by a 14 point spanking at the backdoor in their two summer outings.

Clare fared little better in their two championship outings, losing by a combined total of 17 points. So you may forget about these two counties impacting this summer, they just won’t be at concert pitch no matter how often they knock out a tune in challenge matches.

Short-termism is out the window when you are looking to restore the well being of a fallen giant. Step one is getting back to mixing it with the big boys in Division 1. Step two is staying there – bualadh bos for Wexford.

So who to put the money on?

Clare got a massive break when they landed home advantage. It considerably increases their chances of promotion. However I can’t look past the fact that Clare are in Division 2 on merit while Limerick are there through circumstance. Limerick’s senior hurlers largely didn’t hurl in 2010. In 2011 they did. And they won every game in Division 2, including an eight point victory in Clare. The Bannermen on the other hand would appear to have regressed. A mortifying defeat to an improving Laois team left Clare with some unexpected business to deal with just to secure a spot in the final.

Limerick are a Division 1 team waiting to happen. Clare are a Division 2 team waiting to improve. It will take a performance of the calibre we have not yet seen in Ger O’Loughlin’s reign to puck Clare clear of the sidelines and back to the mainstream this weekend. I’m looking to lay the Banner. At 5/4.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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It wasn’t so long ago that journalists and pundits were near unanimous in their assertion that Leinster was lagging as a football province. The Dublin side that dominated the province in recent years never made it to an All-Ireland final. There hadn’t been a Leinster team in a Division 1 league final since Wexford in 2005, and a new nadir was reached in 2010 as not a solitary team from Leinster reached any of the four divisional finals. A province in crisis.

If there has been a revolution or a renaissance in the eastern quarter of our island it was executed with remarkable stealth and effect. Here we are, only 12 months on from Leinster’s 2010 league whitewash and we at Ladbrokes can muster odds no bigger than 10/1 for Leinster sides to win each and every one of the four divisional football titles over the weekend. Division 3 is already in the bag as Westmeath and Louth battle it out for, erm, a chance to make a speech.

All the above supposes that such a concept as “Leinster Football” actually exists; that there is a particular ethos, mentality or character within the province that defines and differentiates it from its bordering kingdoms. Maybe (though probably not), once upon a time there was something in Meath’s play that couldn’t be found in Cavan’s, or some trait in Westmeath’s approach that was beyond the comprehension of those across the Shannon. Now though, with Ulstermen managing Leinster sides, Kerrymen in Galway, Dubs in Cavan – is there any such thing as a provincial trait?

Do you know that two teams ending in vowels made it to league finals last year? Mayo and Sligo proudly carried that flag. This year however the consonants have dominated the tail end of the finalists’ names, there’s not a single vowel-ending county to be found. Kildare, Tyrone and Clare among others might want to take a long look at their structures.

As for picking the winners this weekend, well they are all near “pick-ems” as only the pairing of Longford and Roscommon has stretched the handicap line beyond a point. I think Dublin will be well tuned up to reach another milestone in their development and take a league title that they need to win more than Cork.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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Cork are the only county in hurling’s top tier with nothing to play for this weekend. Like an idling student they haven’t over exerted themselves but remain a hurl’s length ahead of those counties for whom survival rather than glory is the imperative.

They welcome a Dublin side to the banks of the Lee on Sunday in a game that presents a puzzle for punters and bookies that Mr Rubik would be proud of. Dublin have another significant milestone within their reach as a win could potentially see them reach their first national league final since 1946, but so much depends on Cork’s approach to the game and the personnel utilised by Denis Walsh.

Anthony Daly’s men are currently 10/1 to win the league while our opening price for them to beat Cork is 7/4. There’s likely to be some change in those prices when Cork announce their starting 15. If they opt for a similar defensive line up to that which suffered defeat against Wexford in their last outing then we are likely to shorten up the Dubs before the punters swamp us.

That Wexford win over Cork has added an unexpected drama to the relegation situation. Both Offaly and Wexford are rank outsiders at odds of 13/2 and 6/1 respectively against Kilkenny and Tipperary. However should one of the Leinster stragglers manage to take even a share of the points against their lofty opponents this weekend it will in all probability be enough to save them from the drop. If both are – as expected – beaten, then Offaly would stay in the top tier at Wexford’s expense on the ‘head-to-head’ rule.

Waterford need an awful lot of results to go their way for them to reach the league final, and their task won’t be aided by the expected absence of John Mullane and Richie Foley. Nor too will the promotion of the most over-qualified ‘Maor Caman-Uisce’ in the history of the game benefit them, as Joe Canning swaps his sideline bib for a maroon shirt this weekend to lead the Galway attack. If he’s back to fitness, he’ll take a lot of stopping. Galway the nap this week at odds of 4/6.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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Dead rubbers may be the bane of the GAA’s National League structures but I assure you that much as it discommodes the media, Croke Park officials and spectators, none are quite so vulnerable to a downside on an uncompetitive fixture than your friendly neighbourhood bookmaking plc.

While punters get to make a decision about which games to invest their pocket money in, us grafters in the bookmaking fraternity put our hands up with an opinion on every game. No amount of number crunching, nor hours reviewing matches and late nights spent in the form book will make you any wiser as to how the likes of Mayo, Dublin, Roscommon and the bottom five teams in Division 4 are going to account themselves this weekend. Dublin would not be as chunky a price as 4/7 if they needed points from their trip to Galway.

Games involving those teams won’t stand much resistance from the market and if you fancy a price, I’d advise to take it quickly as there will be plenty of fluctuation, bearing in mind we have no idea what the starting 15s are going to be when we released our match prices on Monday evening.

Aside from the games we have question marked, there are too a number of very competitive fixtures this weekend. Kerry and Down meet in a clash that sees both teams in contention for a spot in the league final against Dublin – though they each need Armagh to do them a favour to keep Cork out of the spring finale. This game is a reprise of their All Ireland Quarter Final last season where the Ulster side toppled the kingdom. The betting this weekend is very similar to that occasion. Kerry are 4/11 favourites, and give up 3 points on an even money handicap line.

Kerry’s problems at midfield found a deeper hole this week with news that David Moran’s knee injury was to be a long term issue. There seems to be much that Jack O’Connor has to work out ahead of the summer, though the return of Declan O’Sullivan is a big boost to their chances this weekend. We may even see the return of Paul Galvin. I expect Kerry to win quite snugly thanks to the quality of their formidable front six.

Tyrone’s trip to Meath is one of the most intriguing fixtures this weekend. Tyrone, with a few other results going their way, could find themselves in a Division 2 final, while Meath could suffer the indignity of slipping in to third tier of the league. There would be little regal about such a humiliation for the Royal county.

Having squandered a healthy lead and a wind advantage against Derry last time out, things look to be going from bad to worse for Meath. One positive grain in the sandstorm of negativity is that they managed to score three goals – a feat not achieved by a Meath side in the league since 2008. If they can keep their eye in for goal they may oblige for punters at 7/4, but I would rather have my money carried by an ominously improving Tyrone side at odds of 4/7.

Having suffered two defeats in their opening games in Division 2, Mickey Harte’s men come in to this game on the back of four solid wins including an eight point drubbing of Kildare last week. Tyrone conceded only five points against a Lilywhites side which posted a tally of 17 against Meath only two weeks previous. The Ulster champions also had the luxury of unveiling Brian Dooher and Philip Jordan last weekend for their seasonal bows. Much as I expect Meath to endeavour, scrap and compete, I don’t think they will have the cohesion to stop a Tyrone machine which is moving through the gears with tilts at summer silverware in mind. They should be well capable of covering the 2 point spread at evens.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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Dublin’s ”Spring Season” campaign has been a great success both on and off the field as the city’s hurling and football representatives are both still in with a big shout of reaching their respective league finals as we enter the business end of the tournaments.

It has been pointed out that the hurlers have had a soft start in terms of their fixture list and that their elevated position in the table is owed to this. The obvious counter is that they held the Munster champions to a draw and managed to defeat the All Ireland champions. They were unfortunate, or perhaps naïve, to concede a late goal against Galway last weekend when a draw was within their grasp. Dublin’s hurlers are learning week on week that you’ve got to take your chances when swinging ash at the top level.

It’s a lesson that was brought home – again – to Waterford as they were tugging at the cats’ tails last weekend with a 20 metre free to level the game. Eoin Kelly failed to disturb the netting with his goal attempt and within moments his goalkeeper Stephen O’Keefe was fetching the sliotar from his own net in the shadow of a green flag and a six point deficit as Kilkenny covered the handicap spread.

It’s debatable how much a home advantage Dublin have against Kilkenny at Croke Park, I’d suggest it’s very slim as a Kilkenny hurler is seldom disorientated at the Jones Road venue. We’ve set the Cats a three point line to cover this weekend at odds of 5/6. They will of course be without the injured JJ Delaney, Henry Shefflin, Richie Power and Tommy Walsh, though Dublin too will feel the loss of some of their key men in Alan McCrabbe, Conor McCormack, Joey Boland and Stephen Hiney.

My opinion is that this is another handicap line well within Kilkenny’s reach. The Cats are progressing game to game and will, I expect, see a trip to Croke Park as ideal preparation for the high stakes days they will face come high summer.

The second instalment of Saturday night’s double bill sees the 100% league record of Dublin’s footballers come under attack from a Down side which ran Monaghan ragged two weekends back. Down are blowing hot and cold while Dublin’s forwards are covering a multitude of sins back down the field with a relentless blaze of scoring.

The Dubs are very much the form team and it can reasonably speculated that much of Dublin’s training focus since the Mayo game will be geared around defending against goals. Cork’s management showed that when they focussed their training drills on scoring goals that their players responded by sticking three past Down. I think Dublin’s management too will succeed in their endeavours by keeping Down goalless (Down goals Under 0.5 11/8) and taking maximum points at odds of 4/9.

Punt On!

Category: GAA

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