Doubts surrounding Dublin Debutants

June 10th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Wins for Sligo and Louth last week against much more celebrated opposition highlighted how this year’s division three contained some very competitive football and how many of those teams were well prepared for the rigours of championship football. Of all the teams in that division, only Offaly have really let the form down since then with a sub par performance and as we discussed previously, a better free taking performance from Niall Darby and a cooler head from John Coughlan could have given that match a very different complexion too. Meath would have won, but if Offaly had stayed within three or four, then this division would have looked very strong.

This weekend Fermanagh and Cavan meet in a match that has already been discussed in this column, while Wexford, a team who were certainly among the leading lights in the third flight, take on Dublin in Croke Park.

After a very strong performance in 2008, Wexford let their own high standards slip in 2009, suffering relegation from division two and a very poor championship. The long term absence of Mattie Forde has led to many analysts writing them off as they were perceived to be a one man team, however there is a lot more to Wexford football than just one good attacker from Kilanerin. This is a group of footballers who have been together for quite a while with plenty of experience, and while they wouldn’t be the paciest team on the intercounty circuit, they are physically very strong, as one would expect from a panel who have been collectively training to an intercounty standard for some time.

Forde’s brilliance has also masked the considerable talents of many of the forwards who play alongside him – Shane Nolan, Redmond Barry and in particular Ciarán Lyng are excellent footballers who would be welcomed into any county panel in Ireland. At the other end of the field, defensively Wexford had the sixth best record in the league overall.

Now contrast that with their opponents this weekend, who have plenty of well known talent and plenty of pedigree in Leinster, but come into battle with a team that is as inexperienced as any in the championship. Four of the starting Dublin back line have either one game or less of championship football under their belts, while further out the field the team is similarly fresh. Of course the quarter final display against Kerry last year highlighted how a new approach was needed, but it’s far from certain, indeed some would call it highly unlikely, that Pat Gilroy will hit on the optimal setup for his team at the first attempt. There is likely to be plenty of trial and error involved here and the first outing is the by far the best time to be trying to oust the Dubs.

On paper, this match is primed for an upset, but there would be some concern that in Croke Park on a hot day, Wexford simply mightn’t have the legs to take out Dublin over seventy minutes. They can stay close however, and it would be no surprise to see them lead early in the game. The seven point handicap is very generous, particularly when one factors in that Wexford’s games were the lowest scoring matches in division three and that Dublin, similarly, played in the lowest scoring division one games. (Scores for and against added and averaged).

A 3pt bet on Wexford plus seven points at even money is well worthwhile, even if such a wager would be heresy to a large percentage of the population who will be roaring on the boys in blue, while the double result bet, Wexford to lead at half time and Dublin to win is worth a cheeky 1pt wager at the 13/2 available about that particular outcome.

Tags: Dublin, handicap, Wexford