Bargains available in basement battles

February 5th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Having previewed divisions one and two already, it’s now time to look at the eight games taking place in divisions three and four this weekend and hopefully isolate the teams that may offer a little bit of betting value.

The first game to throw in out of the eight is the meeting of London and Limerick in Ruislip, and one has to feel very sorry for Limerick in this game. They were quite unlucky to drop to division four last year and but for a point here or there, they could easily have retained their place in a quite competitive division three. Their subsequent championship performances proved that they would be quite comfortable in that environment, but instead they must now play in what is likely to be a very scrappy encounter in Ruislip which will be of little benefit to the team other than as a good social occasion.

From a betting point of view, there is no reason to focus on this game since even though London have improved and they have every chance of picking up a couple of wins this year, they won’t be getting one here. Limerick won’t win this by a cricket score, but they will win.

The other three division four games all look a lot more enticing, with the Clare vs Wicklow match in Cusack Park likely to have a huge bearing on how this league will unfold. Clare footballers have been notorious in recent years for giving brief glimpses of their potential while still underperforming spectacularly, and yours truly has been burned by believing in their abilities before. Mick O’Dwyer teams are famous for ignoring the league and it appears like they are doing something similar this year, with reports flying around the place of players doing no ball work but getting through huge amounts of physical training. A recent challenge game against Carlow resulted in a heavy defeat and that too illustrates that the league is simply not a priority for Wicklow right now.

If this was a championship game, Wicklow would definitely be worthy favourites, but in Ennis, even without the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players (not that many of them usually line out for the county) the only team one could bet on here is Clare. And that’s what we’re going to do – a 1pt bet on Clare to beat Wicklow at 7/5.

Longford don’t often trade at odds against away from home, but they do look like they have made some improvement under Glenn Ryan and they have a few lively footballers from the college scene to re-introduce into their side from the O’Byrne cup fixtures. They can get their season off to a good start here and will need to, but they’re not the kind of team one could back with confidence at odds on away from home.

Finally Leitrim host Waterford, and at 4/7, one could only side with Leitrim here. Waterford traded at 2/1 in this fixture when it was played in Dungarvan last year and this column recommended and collected on that occasion. However winning in Carrick-on-Shannon is another matter entirely. Emlyn Mulligan has been making his comeback in recent weeks and Leitrim should win this game. A 4pt bet at 4/7 is recommended here as we simply cannot see Waterford getting two points in Páirc Seán Mac Diarmuida.

Moving now to division three, where Offaly host Fermanagh and already the money has moved Fermanagh from 10/11 into 4/6. Fermanagh’s strong displays in the McKenna cup contrasted sharply with Offaly’s abject failure in the O’Byrne cup against DCU and that’s probably the basis for this move, however 4/6 does seem more than short enough for this fixture. Right now Offaly have a couple of good forwards but are trying to assemble a backline while Fermanagh come into this game with a good defensive unit but a very unsettled forward line. This has the makings of a tight game, with Offaly’s home advantage more or less cancelling out Fermanagh’s better form. If this column was pricing this game, it would probably be assessed somewhere between the initial line and where it is now, maybe at 4/5 about the visitors. No bet here.

Louth have had a second consecutive January where they swept all before them and the test for them will be to carry that form into the national league. Wexford are traditionally not good travellers but they have played some decent football in recent weeks and Shane Roche’s exploits for DCU suggests that they have plenty of scoring power to call on, even if Mattie Forde is not yet available. Again, no bet stands out here – Louth are marginally the more likely winners and their settled team will stand to them, but Wexford are too dangerous and capable of scoring goals to be opposed by such a middling team at odds on.

Roscommon’s meeting with Cavan should be decided by whichever team proves to be the better at overcoming adversity. Roscommon’s financial difficulties have been well advertised and they remain a very young team with a lot of improvement still in the tank, however Cavan are highly dependent on Seanie Johnston and the broken bone he sustained while playing for DCU against UCD is a massive blow to their chances. Cavan won this game handily last year in Breffni Park and might still be the better team, particularly if Martin Reilly can step up in Johnston’s absence, but even money with Johnston was a hell of a lot better bet than 11/8 is without him.

Finally we have the meeting of Antrim and Sligo in Casement Park. Antrim are expected to struggle without the St. Gall’s players, however they have a lot more strength in depth than many would give them credit for. Sligo have a much better chance here than they would have done if the fixture was to take place in eight weeks’ time, however the more or less 50/50 assessment of this game looks reasonably accurate.

Tags: Clare, Division 3, Division 4, Leitrim, NFL