'Boden to struggle to storm the Castle

November 17th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

After several costly near misses last week, when we opposed Tullamore, Newtownshandrum and Kilcoo and failed to get paid on a single one despite none of these clubs succeeding in covering their spread, it would be understandable to feel like pulling the reins in a little bit this weekend. Looking at the five games down for decision, that sentiment is even harder to quash, with most of the prices looking reasonably accurate and the value bets looking more than a little elusive.

Nonetheless, while going in all guns blazing in order to make up a deficit would be the wrong course of action, there are still some selections worthy of a second look this weekend.

In Munster, the two favourites look reasonably accurately priced, and while this column feels that Kerins O’Rahillys are vulnerable, home advantage should be enough to steer the Kerrymen home against Moyle Rovers. Stradbally vs Kilmurry is likely to see very little scoring, but the Claremen are too hard to oppose here either.

The first of the provincial finals takes place out West, with Corofin 8/13 favourites against Charlestown. This column has an antepost bet on Corofin running and to be honest that’s probably enough of a position to have open for this game, but in the absence of that bet, then a small wager on the Galway champions is probably justifiable. Charlestown will enjoy home advantage here, but limping past Castlerea is simply not the form of a team ready to take out Corofin. Charlestown are a competitive side who’ll have no fear, but they are a 2/1 shot at the very least here, probably 9/4, and if it wasn’t for the high likelihood of a draw, then we’d be pushing even more money in on Corofin.

In Leinster, things get really interesting as two more of our antepost tips go to post. We recommended Portlaoise to win the province outright, and that’s looking like a better wager with every passing match. Zach Tuohy has left to go to Australia, but Port have brought Aidan Fennelly and Brian Glynn into the forward line this year, and both men have looked right at home in the forward division. This team is packed with pace and footballing nous, and can create scores from all over the field, in any one of a variety of ways. The big concern for Portlaoise is their midfield sector, but if there is one weakness that can be plastered over when playing against any Offaly team, it’s the absence of a midfield. This weekend, that goes double since starting midfielder Ross Brady misses the game on account of suspension arising out of his skirmish with Brendan Murphy last fortnight.

For the neutrals, this could be an excellent game to watch as both clubs play some top class football and there is a strong possibility of this being the highest scoring game of the weekend, but with that extra bit of depth and experience on their side, Portlaoise deserve their favouritism. With the game being played in O’Moore Park, they should get home, but not without a few nervous moments along the way.

Now to the other semi-final, where we finally have a price that looks incorrect. Garrycastle’s win over Clonguish in Pearse Park is some very decent form, at least as good as Ballyboden’s late late show against Rathnew on home territory. The Westmeath champions are getting better and better as the year goes on, with more and more players coming on board, and they look like excellent 15/8 shots this week. We’ve already suggested a bet on Garrycastle to win Leinster at 16/1 as a covering stake on Portlaoise, and for those who are on that, then there’s no need for more. Nonetheless, if you aren’t on already, then by all means have a look at the 15/8. Only those placed very close to the Ballyboden team can say with confidence how their morale will have been affected by the club’s loss to Ballyhale last weekend, but it would be an incredible feat if it didn’t kill the club’s momentum at least a little.

The one drawback here is the placing of this game in Mullingar, when realistically, Pairc Chiarain in Athlone would have been quite adequate, and would have maximised Garrycastle’s home advantage. Nonetheless, the Garrycastle players will be very familiar with the rigours of playing in the shadow of Mullingar Dunnes Stores, and they are very definitely the bargain buy of this weekend.

Tags: Garrycastle