Compiling a winning hand with clubs
August 13th, 2009 by Kevin EganAsk not what Off the Ground can do for you, but instead ask what you can do for Off the Ground!
Despite what it may sound like, that isn’t actually this column’s attempt at getting you, the reader, to do all the work. Instead, that is an ideal way forward to get plenty of winners over the Autumn as the bookmakers start to price club games and championships all over Ireland. Every reader of this column has a home county, and chances are there are one or two other counties as well where they have different reasons for being familiar with the local scene. With that in mind, don’t be shy about using the add comment facility on any of these blog posts. If you haven’t posted before, then it may take a while for your post to appear as it has to be moderated (you’d be surprised how many people out there think that this is a good site to try and advertise tamiflu or viagra online!) but once your first post is put up, from then on your comments will appear instantly. Unless you try to sell us tamiflu or viagra of course.
The feature games for the weekend are the four quarter finals in the Galway senior football championship, and of the four, the eye catching fixture is the meeting of Killererin and Corofin on Sunday evening. Both these sides suffered defeat in the first round but have rebounded through the backdoor system to reach a quarter final. This game will very much be about Padraig Joyce and the Killererin forwards attempting to break down one of the best defensive units that you’ll find in club football in Ireland.
Michael Breathnachs took the Galway and Connacht champions for 1-13 in the opening round, however that was without stalwarts Michael Comer and Kieran Fitzgerald and with those men back in harness, they only conceded seven scores in 80 minutes of football against an Cheathru Rua. The lack of any heavy scoring power at the other end of the field is a concern, but Alan O’Donovan has been playing well enough to chip over a few scores from play and in a game where a tally of around 1-9 or 1-10 is likely to prove enough, this column much prefers the chances of the Corofin men reaching that number. A 2pt bet on Corofin to beat Killererin at 8/11 is advised.
Moving now to Kildare and while there are eight games down for decision, there are plenty of hot favourites in those games, many of which, to be honest look quite strong, even at long odds on. County champions Celbridge are probably a touch of value at 1/4 while equally it would be asking a lot of John Doyle to expect him to carry Allenwood past 4/11 favourites St. Laurences. The two Newbridge clubs are also rock solid and will almost certainly win, thought at odds of 1/7 and 1/8, they’re fodder for accums only.
Any one of those teams could justifiably be used to flesh out a multiple bet, but this column is just going to recommend a 3pt single bet on Naas to beat Suncroft at odds of 4/6.
Both these sides played lower division football in 2009, but there’s a lot more to like about Naas’ campaign in division two where they won fifteen straight games before a dire first half accounted for their chances in the league final against Athy. Suncroft topped the division three table, but they did drop several points even though they were up against mainly second string teams and junior clubs. On paper there isn’t a lot between these teams but Naas have had infinitely the better preparation while Suncroft are still dependent on hardy servants like Killian Brennan. Neil Farragher is always dangerous at full forward and if he kicks his frees and combines with Conor Mellett to register a few scores from play, Naas should be the better team in Friday night’s tie.
And now, let’s be having ye! Recommendations, suggestions, arguments and info all welcome in the comment box below, and let’s see if we can’t combine aggregate local knowledge into a profitable Autumn!
Tags: club championships, Corofin, Galway, Kildare, Naas
Categories: Gaelic Football
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Comments (3)
Like the blog, great rationale behind selections. Good idea entering club championships, it all about the local knowledge. Naas look good value. Not sure about St laurences tho, more to allenwood than J.Doyle. Think taking on celbridge is good idea, just not this week.
Cheers Owen.
Regarding Celbridge, I’m well aware that there’s usually value to be had in opposing first time county champions, but they did put in a very solid league campaign (and long – 15 games!!) and generally once they get a few games under their belt, they rediscover their rhythm. Castledaly in Westmeath are another club that probably could have been opposed early in the year, but they appear to have blown out the cobwebs now and quotes of 16/1 about them retaining their Westmeath Championship look big.
The time to oppose Celbridge will be if you can get Sarsfields against them at 5/6, or even Moorefield at 4/7 or some such. I wouldn’t be mad keen to go against them with weaker teams.
You seem to be fairly familiar with the Kildare scene yourself Owen – what do you make of the match up between Leixlip and St. Kevins, very big price differentials there. I saw the Staplestown lads play St. Brigids of Offaly in the Leinster Intermediate Championships last year and I wasn’t hugely impressed, they didn’t look like a team who was going to make a big impact at senior, but in fairness they’ve competed well in the league and look like they’re in with a shout this week. The books are showing anything from 4/11 to 4/7 about Leixlip, and my gut feeling is the latter is probably closer to the mark. Any thoughts?
Yeah fari point about Celbridge, do think that St Laurences could be put in the category with the big Newbridge two.
Rumours around of a gamble on St Kevins in that game (reported they 6/4 with local bookies). Havent a reliable source as to why and havent seen them play so il be staying away.
For value, il be crossing the border to Wicklow. The 13/10 on offer about Donard/Glen v Coolkenno is good value. On all known form, id consider that Donard should be favorites. The fact that Coolkenno star player Paddy Dalton is rated 50/50 at best as he is recovering from a broken collarbone (v westmeath) only adds to appeal of Donard. Also, as donard lost last week, this is last chance saloon and all their big players carrying injuries will be risked.