Cover up those Lilies
Notwithstanding our speculative punt on Roscommon at 500/1 to win the All Ireland based on the draw, the first recommendation from this column for the 2010 season was Kildare to win division 2 at odds of 10/3, odds which are still available right now. The logic behind that post is explained here – http://betdiary.com/kevinegan/2009/12/15/on-your-marks/ – so there is no need to go through it again, other than to say that the passing of a month hasn’t changed anything contained therein.
However Ladbrokes have since opened betting on which province will provide the winner of each division, and for those interested in the betting on division two, the market is well worth a look.
The prices are of course directly derived from the odds against the composite counties for each selection but even so this market offers an excellent covering opportunity for those willing to risk a slightly larger chunk of their betting fund.
The three provinces that are represented in the group of eight are Leinster (4/5), Ulster (10/11) and Munster (16/1). Munster’s price is obviously the same as that for Tipperary to win the title and being honest, even though this column was dismissive of Tipperary early in 2009 before realising they were a force to be reckoned with in March, division two is much stronger than division three and 16/1 is a very short price about John Evans’ men winning a league of this quality. Realistically, this is a straight contest between Leinster and Ulster. Kildare are of course the most likely winners from the eastern province and all three other contenders are very easy to oppose. Meath carry with them great respect and their All Ireland semi final place last year has rekindled optimism in the Royal County, but that doesn’t mean, any more than it has in any other year, that they will put any meaningful amount of effort into winning the league.
Meath are notorious non-triers in this competition, and since 2000 when they lost the final to Derry, they have not had a winning season (more wins than losses) outside of the old division 2B, where they inevitably faced a lot of poor teams. They usually end the year with two or three victories, more often than not secured at home and often under lights where they have a good record. They would be showing a huge change of ethos if they were to knuckle down and pick up five or six wins this year against decent opposition including a couple of successes on the road.
The two other Leinster contenders are Laois and Westmeath, and though it’s difficult for any Offalyman to speak of such neighbours without being accused of bias, these counties are going backwards at a decent rate. Laois have plenty of talented footballers but they’ve reverted to their pre-Mick O’Dwyer habits of in-fighting and squabbling, while Portlaoise’s success is no more a good sign for the county than it was throughout the seventies and eighties when the town club were equally competitive. Colm Begley’s request to transfer to Parnells from Stradbally is a worrying sign and though he will remain a Laois player at county level, travelling from Dublin will make life a lot more difficult for him.
Westmeath’s journey under Brendan Hackett looks set to be a very interesting one with such diverse personalities as Eoin Rheinisch and Michael Carruth involved, but even optimistically assuming that such an experimental combination of influences works well with the players available to Hackett, the personnel losses that he must deal with look too severe to overcome. Players of the calibre of Dessie Dolan and John Keane are very rare in any county, and a county like Westmeath can ill-afford to lose their two best players in one go. Allied to the possible absence of full back Kieran Gavin due to travelling and Castledaly stalwart Derek Heavin and probably Martin Flanagan staying away as well, it suddenly leaves the Westmeath squad looking threadbare and way short of what would be needed for them to meaningfully compete in division two.
From a betting perspective, the outcome is that while Kildare at 10/3 each way is still by far the best betting option, a possible alternative could be to back the Leinster finalists win only at those odds and to cover the stake at 10/11 by backing Ulster to be the provincial winner. Of course the potential for heavy losses is there if Meath, Westmeath, Laois or Tipperary pull off a shock, but it would be a big surprise and possibly worth taking a chance on.
Tags: Division 2, Kildare, NFL, Ulster
Categories: Gaelic Football
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