Cross check before take off
Both urban and rural clubs in action, with legends and newcomers of the club scene and a fair smattering of household names as well as all four provinces represented, the marketing gurus really got everything they could have wanted in the lineup for tomorrow’s All Ireland club finals. Punters too have been treated to a nice bit of variety, with one theoretically one-sided game taking place before a heavyweight contest which is very likely to be decided by a handful of points at most. Unsurprisingly with so much form in the book, the oddsmakers appear to have a reasonably accurate grasp on the relative strengths of the two teams, with the early handicaps on Portumna of around five or six points having disappeared not long after their creation.
The reigning Galway and All Ireland champions are now generally pegged as eight or nine point favourites in this match and despite this being a final, one could even make a case for suggesting that low double figures might be more appropriate. Portumna have raised the bar for club hurling in Ireland and but for a narrow defeat in the 2006 Galway final when Joe Canning was the subject of some rough treatment, they could very easily be looking to register their fourth win in succession tomorrow. Their win over Ballyhale was simply outstanding and if they play at anything above 70% tomorrow, they should simply cruise to victory.
De la Salle are a much trickier club to quantify and it is only that unpredictability that stops Off the Ground from piling into Portumna on the handicap. They have defied all logic and form in this campaign so far and their very presence in this game is a testament to the fighting spirit within the club. Tradition dictates that clubs don’t make any real impact in the provincial or All Ireland series on their first foray out of the county – that has to be “earned” by way of experience. One has to lose before one can win is normally the dictum and on that logic, it was Adare who were the most obvious candidates to emerge from the Munster/Ulster side of the draw. Having supposedly “graduated” by beating Toomevara, Adare duly went into a big lead against De la Salle and it looked as if that logic was about to have been rubber stamped, but the Waterford men dug their heels in and ground out a terrific win, surprising most of the neutral observers at the time.
Having said that, our main logic for not backing Portumna is not that De la Salle might put it up to them – oddly enough, it’s that they mightn’t at all. If De la Salle were to play at or around their ability so far, Portumna would slowly grind them down and would probably pull away towards the end, not unlike their win over Birr one year ago. In this case, Portumna would probably take a five or six point lead with ten minutes to go and double it by the end. However, and as regular backers of large handicaps will tell you, the danger is that Portumna might have the handicap covered by half time, perhaps due to De la Salle struggling to cope with either the occasion or the wide expanses of Croke Park. In that case, Portumna would be inhuman if they didn’t step off the gas a little bit, club politics and friendships would dictate that they’d give long standing club stalwarts a run for ten minutes at the end and De la Salle could take advantage with their pride on the line, tacking on a few late scores and perhaps getting back to within seven or eight.
Ultimately, the suggestion is that Portumna should cover the eight point spread, but with so many ifs and buts, it’s not a recommendation that this column is willing to put on the record.
Alternatively, those who like odds on wagers could do a lot worse than going for Portumna to score the first goal at 4/7 either, but the potential for De la Salle to burst out of the blocks also means that your columnist will be holding fire here too – however the true odds on this should probably be closer to 1/2 or 4/9.
Instead, for our one recommended bet of the day, we’re going to look at the second match between Crossmaglen Rangers and Kilmacud Crokes. Crossmaglen’s record in the club championship is peerless in the modern era, bettered only by their unblemished record in All Ireland finals, with four wins from four games. Kilmacud will obviously bring plenty of talent to Croke Park tomorrow, but to harness that talent in a manner that can overcome one of the most fiercely competitive units ever to play Gaelic Football is another matter entirely.
This column paid the price for underestimating Crossmaglen’s ability to run up a big tally in the semi finals when they handed Dromcollogher-Broadford and unmerciful beating, however one swallow does not make a summer – Cross remain a team whose modus operandi is to grind teams down, to slowly suffocate the life out of them and to remorselessly hound opponents into mistakes. Punters backing them to win games in recent years would have been very well rewarded – punters backing them to cover handicaps, considerably less so.
If Crossmaglen win tomorrow, an outcome that is currently widely fancied with their price shortening, the likelihood is that they create an early lead before tightening matters up and holding on securely till the end. They are not ideally equipped to chase a deficit, while if they are forced to attack, the likely space at the other end of the field for players like Mark Vaughan and Brian Kavanagh (who is now long overdue a big game after struggling to rediscover his Longford form of last year) will no doubt cost them. Rather than taking Cross to win the game at a best price of 8/11, the better move would be to bump up the value and to back them to lead at half time and then to go on and win. This column suggests 2 points on Crossmaglen-Crossmaglen double result at 13/8.
A Kilmacud win remains very possible and last year’s defeat to St. Vincent’s may yet prove to have been the turning point for a great Cross team, but just now the gut feeling is that the returning Francie Bellew and the emerging Paul McKeown have added a crucial extra bit of steel and class to the backline and that they will find what they need to find tomorrow.
Tags: club championships, Crossmaglen Rangers, De la Salle, finals, Kilmacud Crokes, Portumna
Categories: Gaelic Football Hurling
Related Posts:
A good Port even without a storm
Comments (3)
Like the blog, great rationale behind selections. Good idea entering club championships, it all about the local knowledge. Naas look good value. Not sure about St laurences tho, more to allenwood than J.Doyle. Think taking on celbridge is good idea, just not this week.
Cheers Owen.
Regarding Celbridge, I’m well aware that there’s usually value to be had in opposing first time county champions, but they did put in a very solid league campaign (and long – 15 games!!) and generally once they get a few games under their belt, they rediscover their rhythm. Castledaly in Westmeath are another club that probably could have been opposed early in the year, but they appear to have blown out the cobwebs now and quotes of 16/1 about them retaining their Westmeath Championship look big.
The time to oppose Celbridge will be if you can get Sarsfields against them at 5/6, or even Moorefield at 4/7 or some such. I wouldn’t be mad keen to go against them with weaker teams.
You seem to be fairly familiar with the Kildare scene yourself Owen – what do you make of the match up between Leixlip and St. Kevins, very big price differentials there. I saw the Staplestown lads play St. Brigids of Offaly in the Leinster Intermediate Championships last year and I wasn’t hugely impressed, they didn’t look like a team who was going to make a big impact at senior, but in fairness they’ve competed well in the league and look like they’re in with a shout this week. The books are showing anything from 4/11 to 4/7 about Leixlip, and my gut feeling is the latter is probably closer to the mark. Any thoughts?
Yeah fari point about Celbridge, do think that St Laurences could be put in the category with the big Newbridge two.
Rumours around of a gamble on St Kevins in that game (reported they 6/4 with local bookies). Havent a reliable source as to why and havent seen them play so il be staying away.
For value, il be crossing the border to Wicklow. The 13/10 on offer about Donard/Glen v Coolkenno is good value. On all known form, id consider that Donard should be favorites. The fact that Coolkenno star player Paddy Dalton is rated 50/50 at best as he is recovering from a broken collarbone (v westmeath) only adds to appeal of Donard. Also, as donard lost last week, this is last chance saloon and all their big players carrying injuries will be risked.