Derry for the derby and Meath to exploit home advantage

Galway and Mayo meet each other in Castlebar, and again, no bet could be safely recommended in this fixture. John O’Mahony’s invulnerable reputation is beginning to creak under the strain of Mayo’s continued inability to break into the elite rank of football teams in the country and he’s currently operating without many of his star names, particularly up front. Galway have gone well under Joe Kernan so far and look to be in better form, but home advantage is huge in this fixture and in a tight game, Mayo could still do just about enough to scrape a result. Taking Galway with the handicap would be the best course of action for those looking for a bet, but it’s probably not sufficiently well priced either.

Dublin’s trip to Kerry is a game that will get plenty of headlines, but anything can happen here and again, no bet stands out. Kerry’s appalling record in the first round of the league will point a lot of people towards the Dubs and their gruesome training regime should have them fit, but Kerry are a classy team that can still score well even when operating at 50% and they are entitled to their one point favouritism.

The best bet of the weekend in division one is to be found, in this columnist’s opinion at least, in the all-Ulster clash between Derry and Tyrone. Despite being neighbours, it has actually been 26 years since Tyrone recorded a win on Derry soil and though there can be no comparison between the number of trophies won by the two counties over the past ten years, when these two sides meet all that goes out the window. Derry have given Tyrone plenty of good games and not many sides have known victory over the Red Hands as often as Derry have. Paddy Bradley looks set to miss the game but likely centre forward James Kielt is in excellent form having scored well in the Sigerson cup yesterday while Caolan O’Boyle is also playing some very good football. In a game which is likely to be very tight, the 10/11 about Derry plus two points looks very appealing. A 3pt bet on the Oak Leaf boys with the handicap is recommended.

Moving now to division two, and the meeting of Meath and Armagh in Navan on Saturday evening gets this league underway with some live television coverage, while at the same time, Laois and Tipperary will go head to head in Portlaoise.

Laois will be a banker in many accumulator bets this week and while this column expects to oppose Laois once or twice this season, Saturday night is probably not the time to do that. Tipperary football came on in leaps and bounds last year but they still struggled in the championship and they no longer bring with them the element of surprise. Second season syndrome will be a real concern and the likelihood is that Laois will do enough to win, but very little more.

The meeting of Meath and Armagh is particularly interesting, and for the first time since this column has started, we’re going to recommend a small wager on the Royals. Generally speaking Meath are hugely over-rated by bookmakers and it’s had to shake the view that they continue to be priced on reputation rather than form, but that’s not to say that they won’t still pick up a few wins, and this sshould be one of them. When breaking down this division earlier, we referred to how Meath tend to do enough to find mid-table in the league but very little more, and that remains the case. Despite this, Meath usuallly perform very well at Páirc Tailteann, outstandingly well in fact. Last year Fermanagh sucker-punched the Royals to win 2-7 to 0-12 under lights at the Navan venue, but that was only Meath’s second home loss in the league since 2003. 21 home games in six years have only yielded two defeats, though sadly for the Meathmen, wins away from home were just as rare as their losses at home.

Armagh have plenty of very strong footballers and they could yet come into contention in this division, but this game looks to be there for the taking for Meath. Since Armagh have a bit of fight in them, this match also represents an excellent opportunity to use Ladbrokes’ “Draw no bet” offer. The prices for this match are 4/6 Meath and 11/10 Armagh with stakes refunded if the match finishes level, and 4/6 about Meath in that market is well worth a 2pt bet.

The Sunday clashes are Kildare against Down, where the 4/6 Kildare would have been well worth taking before Johnny Doyle got himself suspended, and Westmeath against Donegal, where the visitors are the shortest price of the weekend – not including Limerick, who visit London. This column has a bet on the record on Kildare to win this league so certainly anyone with that docket in their drawer should not consider any further investment of the Lilies.

Westmeath are playing particularly badly right now, but there are no circumstances whatsoever where one should consider backing Donegal away from home in a league match at 4/11, barring an outbreak of black plague or smallpox among their opposition. Steer well clear of this one.