Kerry the gold selection in Omagh

March 27th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Rebel county followers may take issue with the idea, but until the Corkmen manage to get their hands on the Sam Maguire trophy, or at least overcome their near neighbours in an All Ireland series match, they will always be a level below that where Kerry and Tyrone now dwell. Neither the Kingdom nor the Red Hand men have set the country alight with their form this Spring, but every football fan in the country knows that the nation’s two heavyweights are keeping plenty in reserve for the championship.

Jack O’Connor and Mickey Harte won’t have lost too much sleep over their respective losses to Mayo and other counties, but tonight’s meeting in Omagh is another matter entirely, with both counties likely to be extremely keen to put down a psychological marker in a match that could easily be repeated in August or September.

The moderate form of each county so far adds an extra weight to the match in that the loser will find themselves in real relegation trouble in the last weekend of the league. Tyrone will be playing for their lives against Dublin irrespective of what happens tonight, while a loss for Kerry would leave them playing in a straight relegation shootout against Monaghan. Of course Kerry would be favourites in any such match, but it’s not a scenario Jack O’Connor would like his players to be in.

However while all these connotations are in play, the simple fact is that form is not the kind of thing that can be turned on and off, and poor as Kerry have been, they have at least earned the two wins that they did secure over Derry and Galway. Tyrone were second best against Cork in the one win they have secured and unless they improve by a significant factor this week, they could find Kerry too much to take. Kerry at 5/4 are an excellent value bet and should be taken to a 2pt stake.

Of the other football fixtures this weekend, there is one other match where the odds and the form don’t match up – and that’s Armagh versus Tipperary in Crossmaglen. Tipperary have only taken three points from their five games so far this year, but they were competitive in every fixture and could easily have taken the points last weekend against Donegal if they had got some kinder treatment from the referee.

Armagh have been solid but unspectacular in their five league games and Peter McDonnell has a lot of work on his hands if he’s to restore the Orchard County to the status of All Ireland contenders. Right now they look like a division two team, no better, no worse. Tipperary too look more at home in this division than many might have expected and while Armagh should win this tie, odds of 2/7 are way too short. A 1pt bet on Tipperary at 10/3 is an appropriate speculative punt this week.

Moving now to the hurling, and there is another very live outsider hurling in division one this week. Dublin’s win over Tipperary got a lot of hearts racing in the capital but their subsequent loss to Offaly dragged their supporters back down to Earth. However it is a measure of the progress that has been made in the capital that people were genuinely disappointed that they failed to beat Kilkenny last weekend instead of being pleased that they hurled very competitively.

Cork’s renaissance this Spring has seen them installed as short odds to win in Parnell Park this week, but these odds appear to underestimate how consistent Dublin have been in recent years. Parnell Park is now a venue where even the best hurling counties fear to tread and whatever about Kilkenny or Tipperary trading at 4/11, there is no logic to Cork being at that level, irrespective of how much they appear to have improved. A 2pt bet on Dublin at 5/2 is well worthwhile in a game where odds of 6/4 would seem to be a lot nearer the mark.

Tags: Dublin, Kerry, Tipperary