Pointing the way forward

March 13th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

If nothing else, Off the Ground would like to pride itself on being accessible. After all, a lifetime (a dog’s lifetime perhaps, but you get the idea) of operating on the opposite side of the betting counter can sometimes cause one to develop a certain way of looking at things, while an alternative perspective is often just what’s needed. For example, a couple of emails to yours truly have suggested that readers would appreciate a points recommendation system so as to guage better the weight with which each recommendation is suggested.

Generally speaking your columnist is not really a fan of this structure since the point of this column is not to engender blind obedience – the idea is that the method behind the madness is laid bare and then punters can discern for themselves whether or not they agree with the logic put forth. Occasionally – as in the case of the DIT game recently – your writer will do his best to exhort less thinking and more frantic wagering, however in general the idea is that the reader would selectively engage with the points raised rather than blindly follow the suggested actions. However with that clearly stated, Off the Ground is henceforth willing to follow a points system, with recommendations pointed on a scale of one to ten – however be aware it will be rare enough that more than five or six points is encouraged.

For this weekend we have already recommended Derry to beat Dublin at 2/1 with the Ladbrokes special offer in mind (2pts) while Fermanagh plus 1 point at even money in the handicap betting is another two point recommendation.

However at the risk of doubling our exposure, we’re going to return to the Dublin vs Derry match and have a look at Ladbrokes’ market on which team will score the first goal. Both sides are going with relatively experimental lineups this week, however Derry’s re-introduction of Paddy Bradley to top of the right does offer some punch to a hitherto misfiring full forward line. The inside men selected so far this season haven’t been reaping rich rewards, however their meagre return has been more than compensated for by the miserly defending on display at the other end of the field. In their three games so far this league campaign, Derry have scored two goals and conceded none. This appears to be no fluke as their McKenna Cup campaign was not dis-similar – three games, one goal scored, none conceded.

Contrast that with the Dublin numbers, scoring one goal and conceding five in three matches so far this year.

Now look at Ladbrokes’ odds for the first team to score a goal in this game: 11/10 Dublin, 11/8 Derry and 7/2 none. These odds are simply the result of taking the match odds and plugging them into the first goal outcome – they do not reflect Dublin’s likelihood to run up their final tally with a disproportionate amount of white flags and few if any green ones.

This column’s recommendation is for a 2pt bet on Derry to score the first goal at 11/8, with a 1pt saver on no goal in the game at 7/2.

Wednesday’s column also stressed a wariness of getting stuck into many of the short odds teams this weekend and the team news since released for the weekend appears to bear this out even further. Laois have recalled a few big names for the visit of Cork to O’Moore Park, while the word is that Dessie Dolan is likely to make a re-appearance for Westmeath against Tyrone and that the Garrycastle man’s likely introduction has lifted the spirits within their panel. Good and all as Dolan is, his return doesn’t mean that Westmeath are as good a team as Tyrone, however the midlanders will feel that they left last year’s qualifier in Omagh behind them to a certain degree and motivation will not be in short supply this week. Opposing either Westmeath or Laois this weekend at odds of 1/2 (or that ballpark) comes with a serious health warning.

Tags: Derry, Dublin, first goal, Points