Some late tactical switches
March 22nd, 2009 by Kevin EganAs with any sport, late tactical adjustments can go a long way towards securing the desired result in the betting game also. Team news is a tricky thing to read at this time of year as a hungry but less well known 21 year old can often be a more effective performer at this time of year than the established star who knows that his jersey is secure for the championship. However a manager’s intentions can still be read from the line up which is selected and can sometimes help point as to where the money should be placed.
One perfect example is the fifteen chose to start by Tom Cribbin for Offaly today against Cavan. While the back line and midfield contains the balance one would expect, the half forward line selected really gives the game away as to what kind of game is in store – two midfielders and one half back who looks set to drop deep and sweep up in front of the full back line. Cavan are likely to stick with the same team which produced two goal-less encounters in their last two games, leading the bettor to draw one clear inference – 10/11 about under 1.5 goals is value in this encounter and a 2 pt bet is recommended.
One of the more newsworthy team selections was that of Jack O’Connor for Kerry’s home fixture against Westmeath, and while one couldn’t go so far as to tip win-less Westmeath to win an away tie in Kerry, the experimental nature of the lineup combined with the greatly improved display from Westmeath against Tyrone is enough to put us off any potential wager.
The plethora of under 21 fixtures yesterday have also done nothing to clear the waters, instead confusing matters. Clare’s recent form in the big ball code has not inspired their followers, but they performed well in falling two points short against Tipperary yesterday and may take some heart from that. Wicklow are one of many precariously positioned favourites this week, though Clare are still not quite value at the 5/2 on offer. Accum punters should tread warily nonetheless.
Sligo won well in a local derby against Leitrim and should continue their current rich vein of form at home to Carlow, however an eight point handicap at odds on is simply not a betting proposition.
Mayo’s win over Roscommon is perhaps the one indicator of betting value in that an extra time success will not assist any of the under 21 footballers if they are needed against Dublin today. 11/8 is a little over what Off the Ground would consider a fair price for the Dubs today and the travails of Mayo’s under 21 contingent underlines this. A 1pt recommendation is put forth on the Dubs, but we’ll take the even money plus one point since a draw is always possible in this type of fixture.
Tags: Cavan, Offaly, Team news, under 21
Categories: Gaelic Football
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