The Students have become the Studied
February 4th, 2009 by Kevin EganFollowing on from yesterday’s post, it appears that our site sponsors and a few other concerns have burst into life and priced up today’s Sigerson Cup clashes. Third level competitions are notoriously difficult to gauge correctly until every team has put some form on the board, but even allowing for the inherent unpredictability of these sides, there still looks to be a few games where the bookies’ choice for favouritism is somewhat suspect to say the least.
Obviously one can assume that whichever oddsmaker took the lead, any of those who followed would have strongly tempered their opinion and largely fallen into line, however it’s still somewhat surprising that in such a large vacuum of information, there hasn’t been more disparity of opinion. For what it’s worth, here is a brief rundown of the games as this column can see them.
Queens University vs UUJ is very much the high class fixture of the round, with the winners likely to be somewhere between 1/1 and 6/4 to close out the tournament once the outrights are revised. We saw Queens’ hand in the McKenna Cup, with Charlie Vernon very much the engine behind some of their better performances. They come into this game as 4/7 favourites and in truth it’s hard to argue with that. On paper they are the better side, they’ve improved immensely since earlier in the year when they failed to pull up any trees, but this is the closest thing to a local derby you’ll get in third level games and I’d be shocked if there was any more than a few points separating these by the end. Draw is probably the value bet, but being honest this is a game to watch and savour, for anyone who is within an hour’s drive. Expect a top quality match at the Dub today and keep your money in your pocket, no betting interest is needed.
Mullahoran is the venue for NUI Galway vs St Mary’s under the somewhat odd rule that games where the two colleges are more than 200 miles apart must be held at neutral venues. It means that one man and his dog will probably be the only supporters in attendance, but nonetheless for betting purposes this is one of the games to keep an eye on. NUIG haven’t got a plethora of star names such as when Michael Meehan and Sean Armstrong were leading the line, but they have got a good and deep panel of solid county panellists and starters, with many of their young Roscommon contingent in particular looking like they have a very bright future ahead. Their status as underdogs for this match is questionable to say the least. The mercurial CJ McGourty is a tricky customer to mark, but if he and his fellow county man Kevin Niblock can be stopped, the hunch is that NUIG might get over the line here.
DIT vs Athlone IT has no bet written all over it. On paper DIT should eat them alive, but as DIT themselves will testify after last year when they carried on their early good form to stun DCU, there is huge merit to having a game under your belt and Athlone have that with a good first round win down in Tralee. Grangegorman is a very soft pitch at the best of times and that could level matters up further, while any team dependant on Mark Vaughan for scores is a little bit hot and cold. DIT should win, but at odds of 2/9, this is no bet country.
IT Sligo vs DCU will similarly see no recommendation from this column, however we wouldn’t be as worried about the fortunes of DCU as we would that of their metropolitan counterparts above. IT Sligo have regressed hugely from their position of great strength at the start of the decade and their performances in the FBD league were very poor. Home advantage will rouse them a little, but anything other than a comfortable DCU victory here would be a huge upset. 1/5 is possibly even value, for those who like those kind of odds.
The third Dublin college in action is UCD who entertain the University of Limerick. Now this writer doesn’t have statistics for the Sigerson Cup to hand, but the gut feeling is that one would have to go back a long way to find the last time UL beat UCD in a championship football match – however today could very easily be the day, and this is this column’s main recommendation for this round of games. Football in UL is being taken a lot more seriously this year, with no dual players in the panel to upset preparations. Dr Cian O’Neill has done a great job with this team to the point where they are fiercely competitive and defending ferociously from the front. UCD have the reputation and the history, but they simply do not appear to have the footballers this year. If Mark Ronaldson can be shut down, they don’t appear to have any free scoring forwards at all, while they should have no match for David Moran and Fiachra O’Neill who will man the Limerick midfield. UL should be strong favourites for this tie and the recommendation is to bet appropriately at the 5/4 and bigger available.
Dundalk IT have been written off completely in their game against Garda College, which is probably understandable. Garda came very close to winning this competition last year, while their Winter form has been excellent. However at 11/2 with home advantage, it would be silly not to have a very small nibble at Dundalk. They have a moderate team with a couple of incisive players, but they also have a game under their belts and may yet catch the Guards on the hop. This could go spectacularly wrong, but your writer used to be an odds compiler and the Gardaí are the type of odds on shot that you love to lay – they could be brilliant and they could win by ten points or more, but you never know. Very small stakes, but worth a wager.
Finally we come to the last game to be decided, GMIT hosting UCC. This is another game where frankly, reputation appears to have decided favouritism. UCC simply do not appear to have that much quality in their ranks, while GMIT are a capable, if limited, group of players. They took some hammerings in the FBD league but they also picked up a win over Leitrim and have a few players to come back in and bolster their panel from those games. With home advantage, they have every chance of winning this contest between two colleges which have no chance in the overall scheme of things. Again, a small wager is advised. UL is definitely the bet of the round, but there is value to be had in the 11/8 available about GMIT.
EDIT: It appears that both the UCD vs UL game and the NUIG vs St. Marys match have been called off due to the inclement conditions. With that in mind, the best path is probably a medium to small bet on GMIT, doubled with DCU if you are so inclined, and then a token single on Dundalk IT. Best of luck!
Tags: GMIT, NUIG, Sigerson, UL
Categories: Gaelic Football
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