Who's travelling best in the chasing pack?

April 30th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Having assessed the chances of the two main contenders for this year’s All Ireland Football championship, who between them account for half the book, our next step is to examine the chasing pack in order to assess where the value might lie amongst the pretenders to the throne. Tyrone at 9/2, Dublin at 10/1, Mayo at 12/1 and Galway at 14/1 are the four counties considered to be within striking distance of the Munster front runners, with 28/1 on offer bar the first six, so today we’ll look at each of these and their chances for success.

It’s a brave man who would assert with any confidence how Tyrone are likely to perform in this year’s championship after what was a very poor league campaign. One win over Cork, largely due to a couple of scrappy goals, and a late hammer blow to deny the Kingdom, were the only bright spots in a very disappointing campaign for Mickey Harte’s men. The early defeats to Derry, Monaghan and Mayo were largely disregarded as the team played with an experimental line up, but by the end of the league there was a lot on the line for the Red Hand men and the manner in which Dublin dismantled them in those circumstances will have been very worrying.

Having established themselves during the earlier part of this decade by operating at a high pace throughout the year, Mickey Harte adjusted to the needs of his ageing panel by stepping off the intensity during recent Spring campaigns. Their third All Ireland title, secured in 2008, was won on the back of a very moderate NFL season when the team finished with only three wins and a negative scoring difference. It was notable that year however that Tyrone also started slowly in the championship, eventually only taking off with a big All Ireland quarter final win over Dublin. Unfortunately for the Ulster Champions, 2010 doesn’t look like a good year to try and build your campaign through the qualifiers.

By round 2 of the qualifiers, at least one out Kerry and Cork, at least one out of Mayo and Galway, at least two out of Laois, Dublin and Meath and most of the province of Ulster will be in the backdoor draw. Add in counties who would be a nightmare to visit, such as Wexford or Sligo, and it becomes clear that there are simply too many pitfalls in the qualifier pot to suggest that any team would choose to go down that route.

If Tyrone start slowly this year, they will find themselves in real trouble against either Antrim or the winners of Donegal and Down, and losing either of those ties will plunge them into those shark infested waters. Of course they have the quality to emerge and it’s not like any other county will want to draw Tyrone, however it certainly doesn’t suggest that 9/2 is a viable betting price. There’s too much to do, too soon, for Tyrone to be worth betting on just yet.

If one team is the exact opposite of Tyrone in every way, it’s the Dubs. They have plenty of form on their side coming into the championship but their temperament is very suspect on the big day. The Dubs have plenty of depth, plenty of talent and no shortage of young players capable of playing a big part, but the lack of reliable old stagers who put in a seven out of ten display every day have been their downfall.

Anyone recalling last year’s All Ireland quarter final meeting between Kerry and the Dubs would be forgiven for thinking that 10/1 was a scandalously short price, but that performance was simply too bad to be true. They aren’t that far off the pace, they’ve addressed some of their problems by moving older guys aside and they look to have evolved well over the winter. Bernard Brogan is now at least as much of a threat as his brother and on paper, this Dublin side has every ingredient required to go all the way, possibly excepting the experience factor.

Now all they need to do is get every match played on paper – because in Croke Park, they’ve let themselves down spectacularly two years in a row now. Even the Dub players themselves would struggle to explain why and there is no way that they could be backed with confidence, but when you’re punting 10/1 shots, it’s not about looking for certainty – it’s about finding potential – and they have that in spades. It’s difficult to say whether or not they will finally play to their ability, but they could beat anyone if things fall their way and they get a bit of momentum up. A tricky draw in Leinster won’t do them any harm and right now they’re a team to have on your side.

Mayo should continue their habit of maintaining their involvement into August, but last Sunday’s result showed up a few classic failings. There aren’t enough reliable scorers, they miss too many goal chances and they can be swamped at midfield if faced with real power and strength. Conor Mortimer can be fantastic on occasions but he can also be curtailed very severely, unlike a Michael Meehan or a Colm Cooper who scores two or three times from play even on a bad day. In terms of value, they should give you a run for your money in that they tend not to lose to inferior sides, which includes most of the country – but it’s just too hard to see them beating Kerry or Cork, as this year’s winner will have to do.

Finally to the Galwegians, who this columnist will admit, have stumped him on more than one occasion. The depth of quality within Galway football is hard to ignore, but by now, their record of underachievement is equally conspicuous. Their loss to a very moderate Donegal team last year was frankly unforgiveable and even allowing for Joe Kernan imparting some of his bloody-mindedness, this team has proven time and again that they react in all the wrong ways when faced with any kind of setbacks, either over the course of a game or a championship. The Tribesmen have flattered to deceive too often for them to see any more of this writer’s money until they put something very different on the table.

Tags: All Ireland Football, Dublin, Galway, Mayo, Tyrone