Yeats well set for the division three derby
December 30th, 2009 by Kevin EganWhen picking out trends in the GAA, one must always be very careful not to draw far-reaching conclusions from scant evidence, but nonetheless, when one is searching for every possible advantage, it would be equally foolish to ignore results that appear to give an indication of anything at all.
One particular trend that has no obvious cause is the good early season form that tends to be shown by the Connacht counties in the National league. One possible reason could be the fact that the prize of a trip to America for the FBD league winners gets Western teams focussed from an earlier stage, but whatever the cause, last year the results could not be ignored. Only Mayo failed to bring home a win in round one of the NFL in 2009 (not counting London for the purposes of this exercise!) and by the halfway stage, the province had clearly over-achieved. Mayo and Sligo had begun pretty much along the lines of how their year was to continue, but Leitrim, Galway and Roscommon all showed much better form in the opening rounds of the league than they did towards the end of the competition. Relative to other provinces, the Connacht counties clearly hit the ground running.
Of course, this statistic by itself is not nearly enough evidence to justify any betting action, but it does augment this column’s recommendation, arrived at for other reasons, which is a 2pt each way bet on Sligo to win division 3 of the NFL at 4/1. While the opening paragraph gives us one indication why this bet should represent a decent punt, the much stronger reason is actually one that is utterly beyond the control of Kevin Walsh or any of the Sligo players. Very simply, they play Antrim in week one, and with St Gall’s competing in the All Ireland club championship, this is an excellent time to face the Ulstermen and represents a great chance for Sligo to pick up two points against a team that will be much more formidable later in the campaign.
Division three, as it was in 2009, is an extremely competitive division and it would be no surprise to see any of the teams performing well. However despite Sligo’s struggles at this grade in 2008, last year’s results suggest that this is a team on the up, and their outstanding performances against Galway in Connacht and in their qualifier meeting with Kerry should give the players plenty of motivation to make an extra push this winter. Not since the Connacht championship success has the Nestor Cup been so close to their grasp, and a county like Sligo is unlikely to be found wanting in terms of making the push for that success.
The continuity from retaining Walsh as manager will be beneficial, while above all, they face an Antrim team in week one who will be short almost half their team due to the involvement of the West Belfast based club in the All Ireland series. If Sligo can pull a win out of Casement Park, the remainder of the division three fixture list is extremely kind. They will play four games at Markievicz Park, and one of their other two away fixtures will be a short hop down the road to Enniskillen. Their sojourn to Wexford Park looks arduous all right, but other than that the fixture list has played right into their hands and it would take a real dip in form for Sligo not to finish in the top half of this table.
They should drop some points along the way, but it’s likely that most teams will do so, with ten points almost certain to see any county come pretty close to securing a top two place, just as it did in 2009. On that basis, 4/1 each way is an excellent punt, and one which should be taken quite quickly.
Tags: Division 3, NFL, Sligo
Categories: Gaelic Football
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