Rules there to be broken
April 2nd, 2009 by Kevin EganWhether it’s a product of a bartending past or simply a low attention span, yours truly has never been one to be pigeon-holed into a single career, always preferring a mix, a cocktail if you will, of different professions. Having worked as both a bookmaking bean counter and a small town scribe in the past, this current incarnation is quite the healthy mix of both those vocations, though as any good cocktail bartender could say, it just needs something extra to add a little kick!
As a result, as well as directing, you’ll no doubt have noticed that Off the Ground is also partial to a little education, having also attempted to impart maths to young midlanders in the distant past. Education in the ways of gambling is a tricky art with different people preferring to bet in different ways, but one of those key lessons has always been to try and stay away from the high profile games where the odds compiler (who represents the competition after all!) is well informed, instead hanging out in the dark hallways of club games, lower division games, college matches and the like.
Despite this remaining an excellent rule to follow, to play only when a real information advantage is in your hands, this weekend we are forced to continue our occasional habit this season of recommending our main bet on the live televised match, that being the clash between Galway and Tipperary at Pearse Stadium.
Based on the league table, one could be forgiven for looking at the current price of 4/6 Galway and saying that it represents little or no value, however the league table does not always tell the full story and this is one of those instances. Galway have indeed lost two games so far to Tipperary’s one, however each side has shipped a heavy defeat to Kilkenny, while Galway’s early season defeat to Dublin can be excused on the grounds that a large chunk of their team was otherwise occupied in securing Portumna’s second consecutive All Ireland club title. The presence of six Portumna players in John McIntyre’s chosen starting fifteen for this weekend should give some indication of the extra strength that the Tipperary border club bring to the table, and that’s without factoring in the difference that Joe Canning makes by himself.
Tipperary on the other hand took on Dublin with their full hand, at least notwithstanding the long term injury to Eoin Kelly, and much to this column’s chagrin having expected a Premier backlash, the metropolitans pushed Tipperary right to the line, falling only a couple of points short. Tipperary simply look out of sorts at the moment and it looks beyond them to go to Pearse Stadium and get a result this weekend.
Even if Tipperary do pull something out of the fire, since it is the live match, the special offer from Ladbrokes means that there is a good chance of your stake being refunded in the form of a free bet. Galway’s price of 4/6 to win is very fair, but when allied to the safety net of a free bet refund if Tipp draw or win by one, it becomes a very generous offer.
At the start of the year, this column recommended an each way bet on Tipperary for the NHL first division and the size of the stake recommended this weekend very much depends on whether or not you are carrying one of those dockets in your wallet. For those who have backed Tipp each way and for whom this represents a covering bet of sorts (though Tipp could lose here and still reach the final while a win guarantees their spot) then 5pts at 4/6 on Galway to win is the call. For those with no involvement, 3pts is a sufficiently large investment.
Value is hard to find in the rest of this weekend’s games, with obvious question marks over most of the favourites. Dublin should be a lot shorter than 10/11 to beat Clare on form, however it’s difficult to feel confident backing Dublin to beat a “hurling county” at odds on, particularly when that hurling county is fighting for their division one lives. They may win and are clearly the more appealing selection of the two counties in this game, but they won’t see any support from this column at that price. Antrim should be more than good enough to beat Laois in O’Moore Park, but they’ve thrown in too many wobbly results in this league campaign to be trusted either, while Limerick have hurled well but Waterford are too unpredictable to oppose and Limerick aren’t scoring heavily enough to suggest that they’ll move out of sight if the Déise hit a bad patch, as they often do.
Finally there are those who would look at Kerry’s commendable performances in their last two outings and suggest that 9/4 at home to Westmeath is a decent price, however Off the Ground would also suggest holding fire on this one. Shane Brick has been responsible for around 60% of all Kerry scores in this league campaign so far and word from the Kingdom is that he will be unavailable for the last two rounds of the league. These reports are unconfirmed so acting on this advice is not encouraged, however if it were to turn out to be true, Kerry would be 4/1 shots at best – so swerving this match entirely is the best course of action, unless you have more information to hand than we do – in which case that’s what the comment section is for!
Categories: Hurling
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