Shadow boxing a blow to punters
April 17th, 2009 by Kevin EganIt’s a little disappointing that when the national hurling league finally reverts to the most simple and effective format of an eight team divisional structure with a clear heirarchy, the powers that be are rewarded with a final round where absolutely nothing is at stake in the flagship division. Kilkenny and Tipperary will contest the final irrespective of their results this weekend, while Clare will be playing division two hurling in 2010, despite Mike McNamara’s best attempts to suggest otherwise, meaning that all four division one fixtures this weekend will be of no real consequence.
Sadly for those of us keen to pick out a bet for the weekend, this also makes it extremely difficult to isolate value when essentially we are punting on which teams will choose to go all out and which will treat these glorified challenge matches as just that.
Of all the counties taking part this weekend, the secret might be to try and identify which counties need the competitive fixture the most – and in that regard, there can be no contest. Cork have only played three matches in their current guise while manager Denis Walsh is only now beginning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of his players. In many cases this would be a weakness, but a Cork team fighting for places, eager to compensate for a humiliating day out in Nowlan Park and with a couple of key players back on board looks like a team who may have a little bit more in the tank than a Waterford side that simply hasn’t looked like themselves at any stage of this league campaign.
Davie Fitzgerald is not the type of man to lie down and die, but his team hasn’t clicked at all this season and many of his star names are hurling on autopilot. Cork’s greater desire might make the difference this weekend and Off the Ground suggests that a 2pt bet at 5/6 is in order.
In the other division one fixtures Kilkenny will receive support at any handicap that bookies price up these days, but yet again Off the Ground is not convinced. Dublin have been hurling well and it could be argued that they have less fear of Kilkenny than any other squad since they are largely comprised of young hurlers who grew up in the last decade competing with the Cats on a more or less equal footing. Despite this, Kilkenny have tended not to open out and cut loose on the Dubs the same way they have with other teams, whether out of sympathy or apathy. They may wish to cut short any momentum that the Dubs are gathering this year just in case, but this seems to be allowed for in the handicaps available so this is a no bet game.
Galway and Clare should be a clear win for the Tribesmen on form, but the local factors at play here may yet throw a spanner in the works. Clare have been getting progressively worse since showing some positive signs in the Waterford Crystal trophy and they need to improve by eight points to be in with a shout here, but despite straddling a province, the Clare/Galway rivalry is deeply felt and very real. This is another game to swerve.
Instead for our second bet of the week, we’re going to go to Division two where Offaly and Antrim compete for the right to meet Wexford in the Division 2 final, assuming Carlow don’t shock the world and take a famous strawberry scalp. Offaly were very well beaten in Wexford Park in the last round and have been brought crashing back to earth by the ease with which Wexford penetrated their full back line. The injury to David Franks in that game won’t help their cause one little bit in that regard, since Joe Dooley has been finding it very hard to get one additional corner back of the necessary standard, never mind two.
However the corners are one thing, the full back position is quite another and the likely restoration of David Kenny means that this is a completely different Offaly set up this week. Kenny is quite simply Offaly’s best and most valuable player and he should be well able to handle Kieran Kelly’s rather obvious physical threat. If the concession of goals is prevented at one end, Offaly’s forwards can do their part and run up a healthy tally at the other. Even in defeat they raised seventeen flags in Wexford and back on home turf, they can better that this week. Offaly to bounce back and cover a 6 point handicap at 5/6 is worth a 1pt bet.
Tags: Cork, Hurling, NHL, Offaly
Categories: Hurling
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