Tipp not tipped, but in with a shout

September 1st, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Over twenty games later the All Ireland Hurling championship is now down to two teams, and it would be difficult to argue that we are left with anything other than the best two teams in the championship. Galway, as always, threatened to offer more resistance with a handful of decent league performances and an excellent championship display in Tullamore against Kilkenny, but once again September has rolled around and it is the Galway minors, not seniors, who will be hurling in Croke Park on the first Sunday of the month.

On the 6th of April this year, in a post on this blog http://betdiary.com/kevinegan/2009/04/06/playing-cat-and-mouse-with-the-rest/ we suggested that Kilkenny were good value for the All Ireland at 8/15. The basis for this assumption was that Kilkenny would win Leinster and trade at 1/5 outright in each of the semi-final and final. They turned out to be shorter than this for their semi final against Waterford, but entering the decider, the Cats can still be backed at 1/3 to lift the Liam McCarthy Cup. This reflects both Tipperary’s impressive displays and also the struggles that Kilkenny have endured in finding the form they displayed in 2008.

The question that all punters must now ask themselves, including both those who traded in April and those who are now coming into this final with a blank slate, is whether or not Kilkenny are simply biding their time before putting in the kind of performance that we’ve come to expect from them in important games of this nature.

Ultimately, there is no way of knowing how well Kilkenny are fixed for this game. Noel Hickey is likely to play a part and the return of the Dunamaggin man should strengthen both his position and the half back line by freeing up JJ Delaney for duty elsewhere, but one cannot presume that even a hurler of Hickey’s stature and ability will be at full flight in his first championship start of the season. Every one of the Kilkenny forwards has played well intermittently this season, but none have played well consistently, with the obvious exception of Henry Shefflin. Shefflin will need two or three of his fellow forwards to step up on Sunday and logic dictates that he will get that, but what if he doesn’t? Or indeed, what if Paraic Maher repeats his excellent display in the league final and curbs Shefflin to some degree? Can Kilkenny thrive if the King only contributes one or two scores from play?

What we do know is how Tipperary are set, and they certainly appear to be in great shape. Their team is balanced, has a distinct style and an excellent balance of youth and experience, and cast aside their Croke Park demons in style against Limerick. Their long standing tradition of beating Kilkenny in All Ireland finals should be of no relevance, but Tipperary hurlers are a peculiar breed, in no other county are events from past generations given such weight. That psychological factor alone should ensure that Tipp at least hurl their own game, which is something that one couldn’t take for granted if Galway, Waterford or even Cork were in this decider.

More significantly, Tipp are not just the second best team in Ireland right now, but there is a case for saying that they are the best non-Kilkenny team since Cork in 2005, possibly even since Cork in 2004, which I would argue was the better of the two Rebel sides. Waterford in 2007 had some great hurlers, but they had weak spots on the team and weak spots in their psyche which cost them dearly in the end. In the league of contenders, Tipperary are right up there. If Kilkenny don’t perform to the standard we expect, they might just bridge the gap.

At the current price of 2/1, there is probably little value in betting for those who have not already established a position. For those who did get on board at 8/15, the lack of snap in Kilkenny’s performances so far suggests that baling out might be no bad thing. It’s hard to tell if the nagging feeling that Tipperary are in with a real shout is down to genuine belief or wishful thinking, but whatever else, these prices clearly place a lot of significance on what Kilkenny have done in previous seasons, rather than what they’ve done this Summer. Just maybe, the worm is turning and we may be about to see the Cody era begin to decline. Close your bets and watch history unfold, is the recommendation today.

Tags: All Ireland, Kilkenny, Tipperary