Kerry and Limerick may finally entertain

July 2nd, 2010 by Kevin Egan

If you spend enough time in betting circles, whether that is in betting shops, on online discussion fora or even in casinos, eventually you’ll meet someone who will happily regale you with tales of their foolproof betting “system”. Their method will often turn out to be some variant on the Martingale system, an age old technique which, unfortunately, doesn’t stand up to mathematical scrutiny. After all, if there was a foolproof system, everyone would be using it and bookmakers would be out of business.

The Martingale system, for those who have never heard of it, is quite simple and is best explained using the roulette wheel for illustration. A bettor places one euro on red, and if he/she wins, pockets the euro as the exercise is now over. If their bet loses, they then place two euro on red next time around. If it wins, they are now up one euro, if not they move on and place four the next time. The theory is that red must come up eventually, and by doubling the stake every time and collecting whenever it does, the bettor will eventually be up by one euro.

In a world where everyone had an unlimited bank, this would be a workable policy, however in practice everybody has their limit and what they are actually doing is placing their entire bank on a long odds on wager that this won’t be the time when they experience an inordinately long run of negative results. For example if somebody had ten thousand euro in their bank and they were betting this way with one stake per day, they would in effect be betting at odds of 8192/1 on that they don’t hit on a run of thirteen non-red outcomes in succession, which on a one zero wheel, is actually a 5791/1 on shot – or to put it another way, is a bet that has 30% margin for the house.

In a betting shop, you’ll often find people exercising this ploy with short odds racing favourites, or lower number traps at greyhound racing. GAA is less of a medium due to the infrequency of matches, which is possibly a relief since meetings between Kerry and Limerick are in the middle of a long and sustained trend which would be making Martingale backers very nervous right now.

This weekend Ladbrokes have set the total points line on Kerry vs Limerick at a very low 27.5 points, albeit making over that mark favourite at 4/6 while offering 11/10 about less than that tally. This mark is as low as seventy minute gaelic football matches ever get, which is doubly unusual for a game where one team is a 5.5 point favourite. In terms of points expectancy, that means that the Magic Sign expects Limerick to come in at barely over 11 points for the seventy minutes of play.

On the face of it this looks extremely low, but in nine of the last twelve meetings between these teams, Limerick would have fallen under that mark. Against Kerry, they have simply failed to get the scoreboard moving with any frequency. Even more remarkably, the last seven matches between these two games failed to breach the 27.5 point total. Anyone working the Martingale system here would be beginning to sweat a little bit now!

The real issue however is to resolve whether this run of dour, low scoring encounters is down to the chemistry between the two teams or simply a run of luck. Limerick generally haven’t been a free scoring team, but they began to find some form towards the end of the league campaign and their last three games have seen them come in with tallies of 1-22, 1-16 and 1-17, albeit against much weaker opposition than they will meet in the Munster final.

Kerry’s introduction of Darren O’Sullivan in place of David Moran is an attacking move also and with Limerick’s defence beginning to age a little, this could be a good day for the lively attacker.

The price has clearly been created with the previous tight games in mind, but with Limerick coming out of division four and Kerry having had three games already this year to get their attack in motion, this game might not be in the same vein. A small 2pt bet on over 27.5 points total at the odds of 4/6 looks like the best football bet of the weekend, bearing in mind that it is now three years since these teams last met and the conditions look very different to how things were in 2007/

Tags: Kerry, Limerick, Total points