Leinster teams poised for good performance

July 14th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Round three is invariably the most competitive round of the qualifiers since it features only teams who have won their previous game, each of them now within striking distance of getting to Croke Park for an All Ireland quarter final. This is particularly the case this year, with so many teams likely to enter the draw in round four who simply will not inspire fear in their opponents. The Ulster final losers will be a tough nut to crack irrespective of whether it’s Tyrone or Monaghan who fill that role, however Limerick, Louth and presumably Roscommon are all likely to be big underdogs at that stage.

For all three of these teams, their shot at provincial glory was their biggest game of the season and it’s very unusual for a team like that to miss out on their chance of a provincial title and still pull themselves together for the qualifier fixture. Aside from Kerry twice and Cork once, only Kildare and Wexford have won round four qualifier fixtures in the last four years after losing a provincial final, those wins coming against Wicklow and Down respectively.

This of course increases the stakes even further this weekend, with a trip to Croke Park probably on offer for at least three of the four winners.

Dublin of course have yet to leave Croke Park for any championship match and their meeting with Armagh is likely to be the most eagerly anticipated fixture of the four games being played. There has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth among Hill 16 regulars regarding how Dublin have performed in 2010, however drilling down into the games themselves, they haven’t been as far off the mark as has been portrayed. Against Wexford they lined out with a very unfamiliar team and in extremely inclement conditions and while they made a bad start, they did eventually reel Wexford in. Last weekend’s performance in Galway proved that Wexford are a decent side so there was no shame in that result. Against Meath it has been well discussed how Meath got the run of the ball, or perhaps the run of the whistle, for a couple of their goals, while on another day Paul Flynn’s effort would have hit the twine and perhaps Cian Ward’s or Brian Farrell’s shots might have struck the woodwork. On such inches do games turn and eleven points was hardly an accurate reflection of the true disparity between the teams.

Even the seven point win against Tipperary was not bad form by any reasonable yardstick – Kerry only managed a similar margin so there is no reason for Dublin to feel bad about that result either.

Armagh too have been going well in the qualifiers, however this clash will be a huge test of their ability. Their division two title was hard earned and well deserved, but nothing they have done so far in 2010 suggests that they have found sufficient scoring support for Stephen McDonnell. A scoreless half forward line against Fermanagh is definitely a worry and while Dublin’s defence may afford them a few opportunities, they should find that at the other end, the boys in blue will be slowly but inexorably moving further and further in front.

This column actually suspects that Dublin could run up a very healthy win in this game and bring themselves right back into the mix for the Sam Maguire cup. A 3pt bet on Dublin -1pt at even money is the main recommendation, though for interest, 0.5pts on each of Dublin to win by 7-9pts and Dublin to win by 10-12pts at 7/1 and 12/1 respectively could be wagers that will be right in contention towards the closing stages so a little investment there might not go amiss either.

Another Leinster team who are well placed to perform strongly are Kildare, who surprisingly take the role of underdogs for their trip to Celtic Park. The Lily Whites did look appallingly bad against Louth and they could easily have fallen by the wayside in Newbridge against Antrim, however they have pulled things together very well since then and look to be playing with a lot more of the vim and vigour that we saw from them in 2009. They haven’t quite reached that level of performance yet, but Derry are playing some very ordinary football and three point wins over Carlow and Westmeath, even if they were achieved away from home, is nothing to write home about. Kildare’s graph is moving upwards and they can cause Derry plenty of problems this week. Conservatism suggests that it might be worth taking the one point handicap at 10/11 rather than the match win at 5/4 however, particularly as Kieran McGeeney seems to have reined in his “all out attack” philosophy in recent games. A 2pt bet on Kildare plus one point at 10/11 is our second qualifier bet for the weekend.

The third Leinster versus Ulster clash is that between Offaly and Down and while yet again we’re inclined to look at the Leinster team as marginally the better option from a value perspective, Offaly simply haven’t put the form on the table to justify a recommended wager.

It may seem odd to be advocating the side who was on the receiving end of a 5-17 to 2-10 hammering the last time these two teams met in the qualifiers a mere two summers ago, however it’s difficult to overstate the mental block that Offaly suffered when it came to qualifier football. The two wins over Clare and Waterford, while not exactly the form of potential All Ireland winners, has given the team some positive momentum and with another home fixture on the cards, they can cause Down plenty of problems.

Down cut through Longford in the initial stages of their match in Newry and at half time they enjoyed a very commanding 0-9 to 0-3 lead. However they needed a very dubious penalty to eventually scrape home and it’s reasonable to assume that if Longford were to play that game again, they would go in with some confidence. Down are capable of some fantastic football at times however they can have some fallow periods as well and they are not the kind of team that one would back at odds on with any kind of smile on your face.

The hope for Leinster football starts to run dry however when we look at Wexford against Cork. Wexford have a home draw and they come into this game on the back of one good performance, one big win over a poor team and one hard fought win over a good opponent. Their build up has been ideal, however they are now moving into another league entirely. They will give their home crowd plenty to shout about and may even stay within the five point handicap, however Cork are simply way too powerful to be beaten by a team of Wexford’s standard and this is one of those games where any bet placed is essentially betting on what attitude Cork bring into the game. This is not the kind of scenario that Off the Ground likes to get involved in, so the wagering will be left to the Dublin and Kildare teams for this round.

Tags: All Ireland football championship, Dublin, Kildare, qualifiers