Leitrim capable of edging tight battle
June 18th, 2010 by Kevin EganWith Tyrone footballers, Kilkenny hurlers and several other top class counties in action this weekend, the Connacht semi final meeting between Roscommon and Leitrim has escaped the attention of many media pundits and supporters alike, but from a betting perspective, this game is perhaps one of the most appealing ties of the whole weekend. Supporters may want action and scores, but from a betting perspective, predictability and consistency are very welcome characteristics.
It might not be easy to predict who’ll win in the clash between the two local rivals, but at the risk of sounding like a tired hack falling back on an old cliché, anything other than a tight match tomorrow would be a huge surprise. Hyde Park is notorious for hosting low scoring games while neither of these two attacking units would fill opposing back lines with fear. With plenty of intensity guaranteed, the total points line in this game of 27.5 looks optimistic from a scoring point of view. While going low on this line would be a sensible play, there are other ways to exploit a potentially dour clash.
Last year’s free scoring tie in Carrick between these two sides was a glorious day’s action, but tight encounters where a dozen scores are enough to win have been the norm and with a Connacht final place on the line, this promises to be a sharply fought battle. Roscommon’s better underage pedigree in recent years and home advantage sees the sheepstealers installed as narrow favourites, but a look at the spinal positions down the team would call that status into question. Peter Domican at full back and Donie Shine at full forward are two fine footballers who won’t let their county down while Karol Mannion is another fine performer, but the rest of the diamond looks weak. Leitrim lack class in a few positions also but they have a settled team who rarely concede big scores.
John McKeon’s battle with Donie Shine will go a long way towards determining the result of this tie and McKeon has the experience to know how to play a dangerous but one dimensional opponent. Shine will score from frees and there is no question but that there will be plenty of frees to be taken, but if he can be curtailed from open play, Roscommon’s supporting cast up front has struggled to share the load.
Leitrim will have to deliver on the freetaking front themselves, but they’ll have known from the moment this fixture was drawn that placed balls would play a huge part and they should be well prepared to at least come close to matching Shine’s strike rate.
A tight game here should play into Leitrim’s hands, but they too look short on scores and would be hugely overachieving to score fourteen or more times. 4/1 about a Leitrim victory by 1-3 points is excellent value and worth a 2pt wager, while a 1pt bet on the draw at 15/2 is worth covering also.
Tags: Connacht championship, Dr Hyde Park, Leitrim
Categories: GAA
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