GAA

The Golden rules of betting GAA In-Play

November 3rd, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Following on from our piece on how the GAA market has been revolutionised in recent years, one of the primary methods was the growth of in-play betting. Bookmakers, led by the soccer market where in-play betting is leaving all other types of betting for dead in terms of growth, are keen to offer all sports in-running and now every GAA match on TV is covered by most market leaders. Punters have been quick to seize the opportunity, however there are a few golden rules to follow in order to make sure that your in play betting is profitable.

(1) Don’t dive in too quickly

Before a game throws in, both the bookmaker and the punter are working off form, team news, weather and other such factors. However the most relevant factor is how well each team is playing, and it’s worth taking some time to establish which team seems to be in the better form. This may seem obvious, but the important thing here is to distinguish between the side that has played well in the early stages and the team that has put scores on the board. The bookmaker will be allowing for the latter – he won’t always allow for the former, particularly if the bets and the scores are coming thick and fast and they’re working hard just to keep up.

(2) Remember that the result is all important

If one team starts to pull away, it can be easy to assume that the game will continue to follow that pattern, and that the winners will keep tacking on scores to the end. That may be the case, but don’t forget that teams are there to win, and both human nature and managerial instructions will dictate that if they have a big lead in the closing stages, they could easily shut up shop in the full back line but concede points, or simply kick wides in a hurried manner just to kill time. If the pre match favourite is six points ahead with fifteen minutes to go, of course they are capable of covering a seven point handicap – but remember that just because you want them to, doesn’t mean that they want to.

(3) Respect the Handicap Draw

There is no less sexy bet in GAA than backing the handicap draw. It’s a statisticians’ bet by definition, since there is no such thing as “fancying” the favourites to win by exactly three, or whatever the line may be. As such this isn’t always a popular selection, but it can be a value selection. In an era of fixture congestion, the day of the referee playing for a draw is no longer. Indeed this year the big refereeing decisions – think Dublin vs Kildare and Limerick vs Wexford in the football, not to mention the decisive free in the All Ireland final – all decided games, and all prevented draws. Therefore the handicap draw should logically always be a shorter price than the match draw – except of course where the match betting is essentially even. How often have we seen the match draw at 6/1 or 7/1 with twenty minutes to go while the handicap draw is bigger? It makes no sense, unless the referee or one team would be looking to “make” a draw.

(4) Respond to injuries and substitutions

This year, in advance of the Ulster football championship final, the bookmakers found it impossible to split Donegal and Derry once the fixture was made, but found it a whole lot easier once Eoghan Bradley was injured. Bookmakers don’t always react correctly to team news in the game – estimate the player’s worth over the course of a match, and then allocate an appropriate amount based on the amount of time left, factoring in the calibre of replacement available.

(5) Understand the weather and match conditions

In the event of a strong breeze favouring one team in the first half, it’s always worthwhile to make an estimate as to how much that wind is worth, and to use that as a “par” score for half time. Be sure to see how it’s affecting players to make sure your judgement is correct – watch carefully to say how far out players are shooting from in either direction – and be aware of the style of each team and how they will be affected. Put simply, a running and handpassing team should feel the effects of the wind as much as a side that likes to play long ball football or hurling. More often than not, bookmakers fail to allow for this sufficiently.

(6) Understand the difference between the match market and total points

Of course there are exceptions to every rule, but as a general guideline, even if one team bursts out of the blocks or starts slowly, because they are chasing a result and not a margin, there will be a time when the other team has a spell of dominance. This is not always true of the total points market – a game that starts out low scoring usually will remain so. Be vigilant for bookmakers simply taking their pre-match expectancy, and adding whatever fraction of that total corresponds to the fraction of time left to the current score line.

Above all, the key to in-play betting it to watch the match carefully, and don’t simply work out what the odds should be based on the pre-match line and the current score. Every game has a different dynamic based on whether or not both teams are on form or charged up for a particular battle, and it’s also easy to see when teams are playing well but haven’t yet got the reward on the scoreboard, or alternatively defending badly but so far escaping punishment. As a punter, you have to watch the game, and nothing else. The compiler has to watch the game, watch the clock, watch the bets coming in, and watch a plethora of smaller markets. Don’t waste that advantage.

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