Christmas wrap

I couldn’t agree more with the many observers who get wound up over big races such as those we’ve had at Leopardstown and Kempton over the Christmas period being viewed as ‘trials’ for the various top prizes at the Cheltenham Festival. However with such a vast array of ante-post betting markets available for the jump season’s showpiece fixture it would be remiss not to at least examine the ramifications of recent events.

Looking at the first day of the March extravaganza, with Dunguib sitting out the festive period neither of his old foes Some Present and Sweeps Hill could take advantage of their opportunity in the Grade 1 event on Sunday. However as both clearly ran way below their best it would surely be unwise to view that as a blow to the form of the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse. Menorah had created a good impression when slamming the well-touted Bellvano the previous afternoon in Sunbury, but it remains difficult to look beyond the short-priced favourite at this stage and as far as the Arkle is concerned as per the previous blog my colours are nailed firmly to Captain Cee Bee’s mast.

Conversely the Champion Hurdle picture becomes increasingly interesting as it draws closer. The blow of Hurricane Fly’s potentially season-ending injury was softened by a very interesting renewal of the Christmas Hurdle, which saw Go Native confirm his Newcastle superiority over Binocular, with new kid on the block Starluck splitting the pair courtesy of a career best effort. Noel Meade’s star once again showed many of the traits of his erstwhile stable-mate Harchibald, ultimately only scrambling home after looking set to score comfortably jumping the last, and I remain sceptical about his chances of Cheltenham glory. He clearly possesses just one very short burst of speed and will surely need to be dropped in front much later than was the case when he just lasted home against much inferior horses in the Supreme. Solwhit, who successfully negotiated a possible banana skin in the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown, strikes me as a much more suitable type for the race, with the other Nicky Henderson pair Zaynar and Punjabi completing my shortlist at the moment. The 12/1 about the reigning champion remains the best value.

Kauto Star was once again sublime in the King George, but the relevance of his victory as far as the Gold Cup is concerned was minimal. Denman’s defeat of What A Friend in the Hennessy was handsomely boosted when the latter defeated Money Trix and co in the Lexus, and I remain convinced that if ‘the tank’ turns up in the same sort of form as was the case two years ago we will once again see the blue riband change hands. The two giants of staying chasing surely have it between them once more, but there was plenty of food for thought as far as the still embryonic “without” market is concerned courtesy of Joncol.

Paul Nolan’s progressive youngster gave the clear impression that he was the best horse in Monday’s race, appearing set for victory when forging clear turning for home before tying up and eventually being relegated to third. Some felt that lack of stamina was to blame, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his lengthy duel with Notre Pere was the real reason for his capitulation and ridden with more restraint he should have no trouble staying further. He can be backed at 7/1 “four chances” at present, but it’s probably best to wait until a little closer to February’s Hennessy back at Leopardstown – his most obvious next stop – before getting involved.

Categories: Horse racing