Grass and prices each being cut

May 19th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

For most people, being woken up by the sound of a lawnmower cutting grass at ungodly hours of the morning would be an unpleasant experience. (For your columnist, anything before 9:30 counts as ungodly, but that’s another story!) Indeed usually yours truly would not be a fan of this particular form of alarm clock either, however this week, of all weeks, it feels just right. The smell of cut grass and the start of the championship are two things which simply belong together and if a slightly earlier than usual introduction to consciousness is the cost of that, then that price is worth paying.

Of course there are those who would argue that the championship started over a week ago in New York, while there were also two games on Sunday with Fermanagh and Louth securing slots in their respective provincial quarter finals, but this week is when we finally get a proper card of fixtures, with all four provinces having games down for decision.

Indeed for many of this weekend’s games, the betting market has been active for some time, with Wicklow getting plenty of support as outsiders for their clash with Longford in O’Moore Park. The likely return of Tommy Walsh and James Stafford to the Wicklow midfield has led to considerable faith in the Garden County recording a second Leinster championship win in as many seasons, but for those without a position in this match so far, the odds have perhaps moved too far to justify any further investment. Wicklow are now as short as 13/10, and for a county that failed to make any real inroads into a bad division four this spring, that’s plenty short enough.

Nonetheless, the lesson for last weekend was not to lay too much store by the league. Carlow had an abysmal league campaign in division four, while Louth were very competitive in division three. But for a string of very narrow defeats, Louth could easily have won promotion out of that division and on all known form, they were set to beat Carlow comfortably. Granted many would argue that Simon Rea’s goal in the last minute of normal time made Carlow look a lot closer on the scoreboard than they were for long spells, but nonetheless Eamonn McEnaney won’t have enjoyed such a nerve wracked day.

Likewise up north, Fermanagh put a shocking division two campaign behind them to turn over Down in Enniskillen and in the process caused the first minor shock of the season.

So what have we learned? The first lesson is that Tipperary, despite having a lot of good footballers in their ranks and clearly having momentum on their side, are far from a lock this week against Limerick. Mickey Ned O’Sullivan is a proven championship campaigner and though relegation is a huge setback for Limerick, that could galvanise them all the more to have a real cut at reaching the Munster Final this year. Tipperary may limp over the line, but this is very much an even game and again, at the prices, no strong bet could be recommended.

Readers knowing Off the Ground’s origins will no doubt be keen to see what this column’s take is on Offaly vs Kildare, also on in Portlaoise. Again, league form points very definitely in one direction, while a string of good results for Kieran McGeeney’s men on the challenge circuit suggests that there has been no let up in Lily-land. Taking a cold eye to the situation, Kildare should win. They have a much stronger and more settled midfield, they have a very powerful half back line that has been playing well and the tempo of their game could be a shock to the Offaly system. All that said, 4/11 about Kildare is quite frankly way too short. This is still Kildare – hardly proven championship performers by any yardstick.

Offaly come into this game with huge question marks over several key positions, including pretty much every jersey up along the spine of the team, but they have also rediscovered their competitive streak and will have no fear of Kildare. The two sides met five and three years ago and on both occasions it was Offaly that wound up on top, and while there have been plenty of changes since then, a good core of the squad will know that there is nothing to fear in Portlaoise. Niall McNamee is hardly an unknown quantity any more but Kildare will still be trusting in a novice backline to contain him and with both John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan offering more scoring support than we’ve seen in some time, Kildare could have their hands full. The Lilies will win 60% of the primary possession, that much is a given, but they may need that and more just to scrape home. Offaly plus four points at 5/6 is a solid selection and well worth a two point investment this week.

Cork and Galway will both win by as much as they like this week but in the absence of any indication as to what that number is, the advice is to follow last week’s column and get your money on Meehan and stick to a watching brief on these two fixtures. If this column was forced to take a position, Waterford plus 13 and London plus 15 are each a touch on the big side however another point or two would be needed before a bet would be recommended.

Finally that leaves us with Derry against Monaghan, by far the highest quality fixture on offer this week. Both of these counties had very strong league campaigns before being found out by Munster opposition in their respective finals, however this writer finds it difficult to see why Derry carry the favourites tag into this game. Monaghan have been much more consistent performers in the championship in recent seasons while the worries over Derry’s mentality remain justified. The talent within the Derry panel is not and has not ever been at issue, but sub-par performances have been all too common. On the basis that it’s better to be the guy holding top pair than than the player holding a straight flush draw and looking to hit on the turn or river, the odds definitely favour a wager on Monaghan plus two points this week.

Essentially, Derry might turn out to be All Ireland contenders, but they might yet turn out to be no better than they have been for the past couple of years. In that case, Monaghan are certainly good enough to send them into the qualifiers this week. Monaghan plus two points at 10/11 is worth another two point wager.

Tags: Championship, Football, grass, Monaghan, Offaly