Mullins minors

I have long since given up trying to figure out the pecking order of the Willie Mullins bumper horses in the lead up to Cheltenham. I remember standing in the stands (always a good thing to be doing in the stands) and watching Joe Cullen win the Champion Bumper in 2000, with Be My Royal finishing third and Tuesday (Ruby) fourth, and thinking, well if someone as astute as Willie Mullins isn’t sure, and if the bookmakers and the punters between them can’t figure it out (so much for the wisdom of crowds), what chance have I?

Now, a similar affliction is creeping into the novice hurdlers.

Perhaps it comes with weight of numbers and strength in-depth. You would have had to have search long and hard to put together a couple of yards in the UK and Ireland that together would be able to muster a team of bumper horses to rival the one that Mullins seems to be able to put together every year. It’s a bit like the Galway minor hurlers in that regard. Willie Mullins is to bumper horses what Coca Cola is to the soft drinks industry, and that’s just the way it is.

Now his novice hurdlers are at it. There is a difference, however, in the context of Cheltenham. With the bumper horses, there is only one race, Champion Bumper or bust, run in the bumper or stay at home in your box and wait for Punchestown. With the novice hurdlers, you have options, which makes it head-scratching stuff from a betting perspective. Supreme Novices’, Neptune, Albert Bartlett, the three main options, throw in the Triumph and the Fred Winter if you are talking about a four-year-old, and the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup if you are so inclined (novices can run in them too). It’s only two years since Fiveforthree, all set for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, was re-routed at the 11th hour to the Ballymore Properties, such as it was, and won it, beating Venalmar into second place. Those who backed Fiveforthree for the Supreme or Venalmar for the Ballymore felt fairly aggrieved, and those who had a double the pair of them strongly considered giving it all up and taking up origami.

So how would you split them up?  Blackstairmountain for the Supreme, that looks safe enough.  Flat Out for that as well possibly, an outsider, but he did look good in winning at Punchestown on Wednesday, maybe Morning Supreme, if she goes well at Naas on Sunday. Mares can do well in the Supreme, they have won three of the last 14 renewals and they get a 7lb allowance these days.

Quel Esprit has the Neptune option, but he looked so good in winning over three miles at Cork in December, you have to think that the Albert Bartlett is the race for him, which means that Mullins may rely in Fionnegas in the Neptune. He ran a cracker to chase home Dunguib in the Deloitte, and he should be well suited by stepping up again in distance. On the other hand, he could step up to three miles, Quel Esprit could go in the Neptune, and Morning Supreme could join him there. (Stop chewing that pencil.)

Enterprise Park is probably on track for the Albert Bartlett, he looked very good in beating Quito De La Roque and Huge De Vindecy over two and three-quarter miles at Limerick over Christmas, and both of those horses have since come out and won, although he also has the Neptune option. So many permutations, and that’s without the fringe players, like Arvika Ligeonniere, Don’t Turn Bach, Rhyl Accord and their ilk. It’s a nice issue to have for the trainer, but it is still an issue, and it still needs to be resolved.

Secant Star for the Triumph. He’s surely as safe a starter as Richie Cummins.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Categories: Irish Racing