Market strength rules

Continuing with the theme that we half-started on Monday, the theme about horses that shorten in the 10 or so minutes before the off being better value at their shortened odds than they were at their longer odds before you knew that they had shortened (if you follow), I decided to conduct a non-scientific experiment. I said that I would take two meetings, Pontefract yesterday and Newmarket today, to see if there might be something in this. Who needs science when you have finger-in-the-wind reasoning

First race at Pontefract yesterday, there were no significant market moves, and the race was won by the 4/9 favourite. Second race, the favourite Monkton Vale was strong, backed in from 9/4 to 15/8, the second favourite Epic was solid enough around 9/2 and 4/1, while the fifth favourite Alsahi was backed from 12/1 to 10/1. Monkton Vale just got home in a photo from the fast-finishing River Ardeche, who had drifted from 10/1 to 14/1. It was a close one, but the favourite got home by a neck in the end.

Third race, the favourite Perfect Blossom was solid, shortening from 3/1 to 11/4 just before the off, and he won the race, from Jack Luey, who opened at 8/1 and was returned at 7/1, with the well-backed Flouncing, who missed the break, finishing well to take fourth. In the next, the feature race of the day, the listed race, four horses were backed, Off Chance (12/1 to 8/1), Please Sing (14/1 to 11/1), Just Lille (8/1 to 7/1) and the favourite Flora Trevelyan (5/6 to 4/6). Two of them, Off Chance and Please Sing, filled the first two places, with Flora Trevelyan finishing fourth.

Hope you’re still with this. It’s a bit monotonous, but it’s a worthwhile exercise. In the next, the favourite Tangerine Trees was backed from 4/1 to 3/1, Indian Skipper was backed from 8/1 to 5/1 and Green Manalishi was backed from 9/1 to 7/1, but that one went a bit pear-shaped for the hypothesis, with none of the well-backed horses finishing in the first three, and the winner, Cornus, drifting from 13/2 to 9/1. Order was restored in the next, however, when the well-backed Lajidaal (6/1 to 7/2) prevailed, chased home by the solid favourite Fascination and the second favourite Charming Man (11/4 to 5/2). No significant market moves in the last, which was won by Vito Volterra (3/1 to 7/2 to 3/1) with Dutiful (2/1 to 7/4) taking the runner-up spot.

On to Newmarket today. The best-backed horse in the opener was Folly Bridge (12/1 to 17/2) and she duly won, just getting the better of Strictly Dancing, who was steady at around 8/1. In the second race, the heritage handicap, the most significant shorteners were Fireback (18/1 to 12/1), Bagamayo (16/1 to 14/1) and Excellent Guest (also 16/1 to 12/1). The first-named pair finished first and second
The third race was the Cherry Hinton, in which the favourite Memory drifted worryingly from 4/5 to 5/4, but she overcame trouble in running to win well. She was the best filly in the race, no question. Radharcnafarraige and Hooray were both strong against her, but they faded to finish fourth and third respectively.

The best-backed filly in the Falmouth Stakes was Music Show, not just in the morning (10/1 to 8/1), but also on track (8/1 to 13/2), and she duly obliged, while runner-up Spacious was backed from 10/1 to 9/1. In the seven-furlong maiden, the winner Native Khan (16/1 to 14/1) was one of just four horses who shortened in the betting, while in the 10-furlong maiden, the winner Cotton Mill, interestingly, was backed from an opening show of 100/1 to an SP of 66/1, one of five horses in the field of 12 that was backed. Secretive was the best-backed horse in the last (7/1 to 9/2), but he could only finish fourth (the finishing position of all good each-way bets in a field of 20 that has been reduced to 15 before the off).

Nevertheless, there may be something in this. Must use larger sample size and some science next time.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Categories: Horse racing