Nassau trends

July 31st, 2010 by Donn McClean

We visited race trends and stats a little while ago. You often here the S word being bandied about. Are you a stats man? Can’t stand the things. If stats were pints of Guinness, I’d be a pioneer. I’m not a stats man myself but. We’ve heard them all. Fellow punters want to put you into a box, stats man or non-stats man. Red or green. Do you refrain from having a bet at the Cheltenham Festival until the postman arrives along whistling his merry tune with Paul Jones’s Cheltenham Betting Guide (say: stats and trends book) tucked neatly under his arm beside Hello magazine for the missus, or do you laugh heartily (ha ha ha) at anyone who pays a blind bit of notice to what has gone on in the past 10 or 20 years?

The reality is, stats and trends are useful when they have something to say, when you can determine a rationale for a recurring theme in the result of a specific race or type of race. They are just another tool. Like, only one horse in the last 25 years carried more than 10st 12lb to victory in the Galway Hurdle. Okay, so Overturn blew that one out of the water on Thursday, but it is still a worthwhile trend. No 10-year-old has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1998. Ten of the last 11 winners of the Totesport Mile at Goodwood were drawn 16 or higher. The last four horses to win the Champion Hurdle had one-word names. Spot the odd trend out.

Here’s another trend: 24 of the last 30 winners of the Nassau Stakes were aged three. That’s colossal. Last year, there were five three-year-olds in the 10-strong field, and they filled the first three places and four of the first five places. The year before, three-year-olds finished first and second, again, from five representatives. In 2007, there were four three-year-olds in the race and they finished first, third and fourth. It is a stat that is worth noting.

Possible rationales? Maybe the weight-for-age scale is wrong. Three-year-olds usually receive 9lb from their elders in the Nassau. This year, I suppose because the race is run on the last day of July instead of the first or second day of August, they get 10lb. That may be too much. Three-year-old fillies may be improving at a faster rate at this time of year than the weight-for-age scale allows, and they could be at a huge advantage over their elders getting 10lb from them over 10 furlongs.

Or maybe the good older fillies are rarely around. There is a good programme of races for older fillies and mares in Europe these days, but the temptation to pack the good ones off to stud after a glittering three-year-old season remains. The last two older fillies to win the race were Ouija Board and Alexander Goldrun, two of the best middle distance mares in recent memories, and the elders didn’t win it at all between 1992 and 2004.

Midday is no Ouija Board or Alexander Goldrun, not yet, but she is probably already as good as Favourable Terms, who won the race in 2004. Last year’s winner, she sets a high standard. However, she wouldn’t want the ground to be too fast, it was very easy ground when she won the race last year.

Strawberrydaiquiri is interesting stepping up to 10 furlongs for the first time, but there are two very interesting three-year-olds set to line up against their elders: Contredanse, who has won her last three, including the Group 2 Italian Oaks at San Siro on her latest outing, and Rosanara from the Alain de Royer-Dupre yard, who was a top class juvenile, who put up a smart performance to chase her top class stable companion Sarafina home in the French Oaks on her last run, and who abandoned a trip to The Curragh to try to land the Irish Oaks after she injured herself while being loaded on to the plane.

Four of the last 10 winners of the race had single-word names. Today’s winner will probably add to that trend all right.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Tags: Goodwood, Nassau Stakes, The Galway Races