Just six runners have been declared for the 1m2f Group 1 feature, but with the likes of Juddmonte International first and second, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over, and Irish Derby hero Cape Blanco in the field what it lacks in quantity it more than makes up for in quality. It promises to be a fascinating spectacle and perhaps it will be the York form that once again comes to the fore, with ‘Rip’ taken to once again get the better of Henry Cecil’s fine servant. Last year’s Dewhurst Stakes hero Beethoven enjoyed a confidence boosting success at Group 3 level here recently, and with the step up to 1m2f likely to suit may spring a surprise by proving best of the remainder.

The Group 1 Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes is a worthy chief supporting event, with old rivals Music Show and Lillie Langtry likely to dispute favouritism. The latter had the better of the argument in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, but Mick Channon’s filly reversed the form in no uncertain terms when hacking up in the Falmouth Stakes before understandably finding Goldikova too hot to handle last time. With heavy morning rain easing the ground Falmouth runner-up Spacious also comes firmly into the argument.

Several interesting and unexposed types lock horns in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes, with recent Cork scorer Await The Dawn and Dermot Weld’s French import Cashelgar two of the likelier types. Noll Wallop has his first start since disappointing in the Irish 2000 Guineas, but previously looked set for a good season when landing a trial for that race at today’s venue.

There are some competitive handicaps down for decision throughout the day, with Galway winner Toufan Express and recent Tipperary scorer Priomhbhean making plenty of appeal in the 7f premier handicap and concluding 1m1f event respectively.

Here is where one enters a proverbial minefield. To many of those with little more than a fleeting knowledge of the betting game, their idea of a tip is something that involves small stakes, big odds and is guaranteed to win. As those with more than a little fleeting knowledge will tell you, such recommendations simply don’t exist. And so the odds compiler invariably ends up scrambling to come up with some viable long shot, while at the same time trying to dampen expectations with all sorts of warnings and caveats. Of course if the other party actually takes out a pen and paper or makes a note on their phone, there is little left to do except pray, since all future relations now hang on whether or not this bet comes in.

An alternative approach is to try and tip a winning selection, but as many of those who make money from their betting will tell you, one of the first secrets to turning a betting profit is to lose your fear or prejudice surrounding certain prices. Odds on selections quickly become a lot more viable and soon become the best way to turning a consistent profit, however they certainly do not constitute good recommendations for pub talk. A suggestion of a 1/2 shot that should be closer to 1/4 is normally met with rejection on the grounds that 1/2 is “no kind of price”, before your new found friend looks at you in a manner that suggests that he or she thinks you have mixed them up with JP McManus or Dermot Desmond.

For those outside the game, and particularly for those who aren’t comfortable with numbers, the concept of value is simply too much to grasp. For example this weekend, there is fantastic value in the 4/7 about the Kildare vs Down game to be the higher scoring match of the weekend, even though 4/7 is the sort of price that would turn off a lot of punters.

As a general rule, most senior games score higher than minor matches simply due to their longer duration. Given an average senior match and an average minor fixture, this would be a fair price. However Kildare and Down are both scoring freely in the qualifiers and both teams would consider their strengths to be in moving the ball and creating scoring opportunities as opposed to constrictive defending. The two minor protagonists on the other hand are both solid overall units who haven’t shown any great flair up front and neither team would expect to accumulate too large a total.  Galway have scored 0-13, 1-10 and 0-10 in three meaning ful games, while the Rebels have scored 1-9, 2-12, 1-8 and 3-11, a good average but very hit and miss. Cork did cut loose a little against Armagh but they scored two late goals in that game to nick the tie and it could very easily have gone quite differently. Both sides are now coming up against the best defensive units that they have faced so far, meaning that a line of 27.5 would probably be closer to the mark than the 28.5 currently on offer from Ladbrokes.

Kildare and Down’s total line of 31.5 could easily be raised a point as well, so the best plan of attack is surely to take the market that combines both of these outcomes while still leaving a little leeway. As with all odds on bets, a good size stake is required to make this bet worthwhile, however every so often it’s worth throwing the shackles off and this is one such case. A 6pt bet on Kildare vs Down to be the highest scoring game is recommended at the 4/7 odds on offer.

Cristal Island had been out of form for a long time but finally hinted at a return to form at Leopardstown last time. This Trans Island filly was noted showing a nice burst of speed in the straight, staying on well into fifth from well off the pace. She was rated 93 only a year ago and while that assessment was far too high, running off only 57 today she is certainly handicapped to go close.
 
Beauthea ran a decent race last time behind Simla Sunset in what was a stronger handicap than today’s race. She may have been slightly flattered by the run , having benefited from a good draw and being well placed throughout. Nonetheless, that run is the best form on offer so at 14-1, we will have a small bet.
 
Ballinrobe – 3.45, 0.5 point ew Barndeh (12-1 widely available)
 
A bit of a shot in the dark here with Barndeh. This Marju gelding has shown nothing before over hurdles but has been in good form recently on the flat. His trainer Tom McCourt hinted after his flat win in Sligo, that he would be seeking to exploit a favourable hurdles mark so perhaps today might be the day!
 
Ballinrobe – 4.15, 1.5 points ew Gimlis Rock (3-1 Ladbrokes.com)
 
Gimlis Rock has been in fine form in some decent flat handicaps the past few months. When last seen over hurdles he beat a good field at Punchestown. He looks a cut above his rivals here and although facing a demanding assignment at the weights, this Jessica Harrington trained gelding could well prove up to the task.

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Cork had slowly become the dominant team in Munster back then, but failed to put an All Ireland title on the board, most notably failing to justify favouritism against Derry in 1993. Dublin too were on the back of a sustained run of supremacy in the eastern province that hadn’t yet resulted in a Sam Maguire trophy, but manager Pat O’Neill had put his faith in an unproven full forward whose atypical background was no barrier to his ascent into legendary status with the Hill 16 regulars after a string of crucial goals.

Jason Sherlock’s goal on that 1995 afternoon was the deciding factor in a tight game, and this Sunday, Eoghan O’Gara’s battle with Cork full back Michael Shields is likely to play a big part as Dublin are likely to need to get in behind the Cork defence for a goal or two. On paper, based on concession of scores to his direct opponent, Shields has performed well in 2010, but O’Gara is the most robust opponent he will have faced so far and Shields’ tendency to take full advantage of his “allowance” of two or three fouls when under pressure might not get him out of trouble against the Templeogue player who tends to ignore fouls and continue bullocking forward.

Cork’s win over Roscommon was by far the most underwhelming performance of the four quarter final winners, but allowance must be made for the extremely limited challenge that Roscommon presented in opposition to Cork. The Connacht champions were way out of their depth at that stage of the championship and it was no coincidence that Cork only looked good once the Sheepstealers had the temerity to take the lead early in the second half, essentially rousing their opponents into action. Still, Conor Counihan’s men looked both powerful and directionless in their play at times and could find this Dublin team surprisingly capable of counteracting their pace and movement.

Cork’s dominance of primary possession has been one of their strongest assets in recent years but here too, it’s difficult to make a confident call about how the two sides will match up this weekend. Any one of Murphy, Walsh, O’Connor and Kavanagh could start in the engine room for Cork, while there was no real kickout battle between Dublin and Tyrone since both sides took the short kickout option when it was offered. Dublin have been voracious at devouring breaks but they will expect to concede many more clean catches than they make themselves. This won’t be a problem if they can prevent the Cork wing backs and wing forwards from finding space and the football around the middle third and instead force Cork to play the ball backwards, thus allowing their blanket defence to reset. In this regard, the potential loss of Graham Canty could prove crucial.

More than any other player, Canty is able to take opposition defenders out of the game and create missed tackles, even going through heavy traffic areas in the middle of the field. He’s likely to play some part in Sunday’s match, but if he’s any way short of full fitness, Cork will be missing a crucial aspect of their play.

The match prices of 7/4 about Dublin and 8/13 about Cork already suggest that a fair amount of improvement in form for Cork is priced in, but that expectation might not yet come to pass. Dublin’s full back line is improving with every game and while Pierce O’Niell remains a wild card, Cork’s unsettled forward line might struggle to score with regularity. Dublin are far from the finished article, but in terms of value, they offer much more than the Rebels. A 2pt bet on Dublin at 7/4 is the obvious match betting play in this game, with nerves of steel required for the early stages, when Dublin have tended to struggle in games so far.

The point is, that with so little proven about most of the teams, we are tempted to bulk up on the weeds of speculation as the crops of knowledge are so thin. I’d advise a little more selectivity in the diet.

Waterford come in to the game as Munster champions, a battalion of veteran warriors bolstered by talent from recent underage successes. Tony Browne and Brick Walsh are being talked about as Hurler of the Year contenders. Dan Shanahan is back to summoning ‘Dan The Man’ yelps from Marty Morrissey commentaries while John Mullane adds to his legendary status every day he picks up the hurl.

There’s something operatic about Waterford hurling. The victories heroic, the defeats tragic. But a stoney heart, cold to the emotional drama can pick a few holes. I’ll be holidaying in Bundoran rather than Tramore after this I think, but I’ve yet to see a bookie win a popularity contest…

This was a handy Munster title. Cork did the dirty work by knocking Tipp out in the first game. Waterford found themselves in a Munster final by doing no more than tying the handicap line against a Division 2 side on a bank holiday Monday outing. Once in the final they needed two attempts and extra time to get the better of Cork. They were great games, very enjoyable, but what sticks in my mind is Waterford’s inability to close out the deal in normal time when Eoin Kelly had three scoreable chances to spare their legs. Cork were unable to punish Waterford, but I think Tipp will be less forgiving.

Tipperary came within a disputed penalty and a moment of madness from Benny Dunne of muzzling the Kilkenny five in a row talk by halting the run at three. They were toe to toe and point for point with the greatest team of all time until their late heartbreaking collapse. Their return to championship hurling this year saw them lose their Munster title with a poor performance against Cork. They were flat, lacklustre, lethargic and outhurled.

They look to have rediscovered their mojo through the qualifiers, dishing out comprehensive beatings to Wexford and Offaly before facing Galway in an All Ireland quarter final. This was a defeat-turned-victory as Tipperary hurled with authority, invention and belief as they battled clock and scoreboard while the stewards shuffled to their end of match positions. Galway got a lesson in hurt that howled with resonance of Tipp’s September mugging by Kilkenny.

Tipp’s half forward line has attracted an innordinate amount of discussion this year. The facts are that Gearoid Ryan and Seamus Callinan (when introduced) both scored goals from that sector against Galway. I imagine there are not many counties that wouldn’t swap their half forwards for Tipp’s. Tony Browne and Brick Walsh’s nominations for Hurler of the Year will sink or swim on Sunday, I think they’ll clock up more miles in retreat than attack.

At 2/5 I wouldn’t put anybody off backing Tipp and I’m be happy to take on Waterford at 5/2. Tipp give up 3 points on our handicap and they are well capable of covering that spread also.

Punt On!