StarBets.ie » Division two http://starbets.ie The Irish Betting Site Thu, 09 Sep 2010 16:10:53 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc Derry for the derby and Meath to exploit home advantage http://starbets.ie/gaa/gaelic-football/derry-for-the-derby-and-meath-to-exploit-home-advantage http://starbets.ie/gaa/gaelic-football/derry-for-the-derby-and-meath-to-exploit-home-advantage#comments Thu, 04 Feb 2010 19:42:25 +0000 Kevin Egan http://betdiary.com/kevinegan/?p=495 For every county in Ireland bar Kilkenny, the national football league gets underway this weekend and the viewing public are set to get their first snapshot of how various teams are likely to fare in 2010. While many counties will continue to experiment to a certain degree in the league, the difference in intensity between...]]> For every county in Ireland bar Kilkenny, the national football league gets underway this weekend and the viewing public are set to get their first snapshot of how various teams are likely to fare in 2010. While many counties will continue to experiment to a certain degree in the league, the difference in intensity between this weekend and the preseason competitions is sure to be noticeable as teams look to get their season off to a decent start and take the pressure off the latter stages of the competition. For now we’re going to look at the games in division one and two, with the lower divisions to follow later.

Division one will catch most of the national attention and it will be particularly interesting to see how Cork and Monaghan fare on Sunday afternoon in Scotstown. Previously in this column () we discussed how Ulster teams tend to start well and how those counties who can reach provincial finals without trying too hard – i.e. Kerry, Cork, Galway, Mayo – all tend to underachieve in the opening rounds of the league. Thus, on paper, this looks like the ideal opportunity to put that theory into play. Sadly however, it looks like the bookies have factored this in when pricing the game, as 5/4 Monaghan is hardly a big enough price to warrant a substantial cut off this bet. This bookie would still side with the Farney boys if push came to shove, but a better price would be needed about them before an investment could really be recommended.

Galway and Mayo meet each other in Castlebar, and again, no bet could be safely recommended in this fixture. John O’Mahony’s invulnerable reputation is beginning to creak under the strain of Mayo’s continued inability to break into the elite rank of football teams in the country and he’s currently operating without many of his star names, particularly up front. Galway have gone well under Joe Kernan so far and look to be in better form, but home advantage is huge in this fixture and in a tight game, Mayo could still do just about enough to scrape a result. Taking Galway with the handicap would be the best course of action for those looking for a bet, but it’s probably not sufficiently well priced either.

Dublin’s trip to Kerry is a game that will get plenty of headlines, but anything can happen here and again, no bet stands out. Kerry’s appalling record in the first round of the league will point a lot of people towards the Dubs and their gruesome training regime should have them fit, but Kerry are a classy team that can still score well even when operating at 50% and they are entitled to their one point favouritism.

The best bet of the weekend in division one is to be found, in this columnist’s opinion at least, in the all-Ulster clash between Derry and Tyrone. Despite being neighbours, it has actually been 26 years since Tyrone recorded a win on Derry soil and though there can be no comparison between the number of trophies won by the two counties over the past ten years, when these two sides meet all that goes out the window. Derry have given Tyrone plenty of good games and not many sides have known victory over the Red Hands as often as Derry have. Paddy Bradley looks set to miss the game but likely centre forward James Kielt is in excellent form having scored well in the Sigerson cup yesterday while Caolan O’Boyle is also playing some very good football. In a game which is likely to be very tight, the 10/11 about Derry plus two points looks very appealing. A 3pt bet on the Oak Leaf boys with the handicap is recommended.

Moving now to division two, and the meeting of Meath and Armagh in Navan on Saturday evening gets this league underway with some live television coverage, while at the same time, Laois and Tipperary will go head to head in Portlaoise.

Laois will be a banker in many accumulator bets this week and while this column expects to oppose Laois once or twice this season, Saturday night is probably not the time to do that. Tipperary football came on in leaps and bounds last year but they still struggled in the championship and they no longer bring with them the element of surprise. Second season syndrome will be a real concern and the likelihood is that Laois will do enough to win, but very little more.

The meeting of Meath and Armagh is particularly interesting, and for the first time since this column has started, we’re going to recommend a small wager on the Royals. Generally speaking Meath are hugely over-rated by bookmakers and it’s had to shake the view that they continue to be priced on reputation rather than form, but that’s not to say that they won’t still pick up a few wins, and this sshould be one of them. When breaking down this division earlier, we referred to how Meath tend to do enough to find mid-table in the league but very little more, and that remains the case. Despite this, Meath usuallly perform very well at Páirc Tailteann, outstandingly well in fact. Last year Fermanagh sucker-punched the Royals to win 2-7 to 0-12 under lights at the Navan venue, but that was only Meath’s second home loss in the league since 2003. 21 home games in six years have only yielded two defeats, though sadly for the Meathmen, wins away from home were just as rare as their losses at home.

Armagh have plenty of very strong footballers and they could yet come into contention in this division, but this game looks to be there for the taking for Meath. Since Armagh have a bit of fight in them, this match also represents an excellent opportunity to use Ladbrokes’ “Draw no bet” offer. The prices for this match are 4/6 Meath and 11/10 Armagh with stakes refunded if the match finishes level, and 4/6 about Meath in that market is well worth a 2pt bet.

The Sunday clashes are Kildare against Down, where the 4/6 Kildare would have been well worth taking before Johnny Doyle got himself suspended, and Westmeath against Donegal, where the visitors are the shortest price of the weekend – not including Limerick, who visit London. This column has a bet on the record on Kildare to win this league so certainly anyone with that docket in their drawer should not consider any further investment of the Lilies.

Westmeath are playing particularly badly right now, but there are no circumstances whatsoever where one should consider backing Donegal away from home in a league match at 4/11, barring an outbreak of black plague or smallpox among their opposition. Steer well clear of this one.

]]> http://starbets.ie/gaa/gaelic-football/derry-for-the-derby-and-meath-to-exploit-home-advantage/feed 0 On your marks http://starbets.ie/gaa/gaelic-football/on-your-marks http://starbets.ie/gaa/gaelic-football/on-your-marks#comments Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:16:51 +0000 Kevin Egan http://betdiary.com/kevinegan/?p=439 We commented in a previous post that there were a couple of the leagues that appeared to offer each way value, but despite our original intention to hold off making any recommendations until the new year in order to see which counties were starting the season at full pace, the recent experimental rule changes has...]]> We commented in a previous post that there were a couple of the leagues that appeared to offer each way value, but despite our original intention to hold off making any recommendations until the new year in order to see which counties were starting the season at full pace, the recent experimental rule changes has forced our hand somewhat, meaning that it’s well worth taking an early punt just in case the price were to move, which is not unlikely.

Despite the notional ban on intercounty training, one would do well to find an inactive county all across Ireland at the moment, with managers looking to find the extra edge that will propel their sides forward in 2010. The Christmas period in particular is likely to be quite arduous for many players, with the trend of managers using the holidays to suss out how much players are interested in the “sacrifices” currently very prominent.

Obviously it is not for this column to openly accuse any particular county of flouting the rules, however what we can say for certain is that Kildare have been very kindly treated by the Leinster championship draw and securing their first Leinster title since the turn of the millenium is very much on the agenda. It appears that they are doing everything possible to hit the ground running in this regard. Kieran McGeeney’s charges will be (ahem) training with Summer rather than Autumn in mind, and are likely to reach their cruising speed very early on during the national league campaign.

At 10/3, this column’s sponsors are best price about Kildare securing the Division two league title on the way, and right now, that price looks like excellent value for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, based on 2009 form and their underage pedigree in recent seasons, Kildare are simply the best team in this division, probably by a couple of points over their nearest rivals. Indeed Meath would be close enough to them on championship form, but the Royals’ indifference to the league is unsurpassed in Ireland. Kildare do face four away fixtures this season, but Thurles, Navan and Portlaoise are all relatively handy venues and only their trip to Armagh looks particularly daunting. Away trips to Ulster venues are always awkward, and McGeeney will be happy that Down and Donegal both must travel to Newbridge.

However what tipped us over the edge was the implementation of the new “mark” rule. With the possible exception of Meath, or Westmeath at a push, no team possesses the level of high fielding skill that is at McGeeney’s disposal. Whether he chooses Daryl Flynn, Dermot Early, Ronan Sweeney or any one of several other options in the eight and nine jerseys, he will have two serious fielders to aim at and the mark rule has just made this kind of power very difficult to counteract. Creating scores from free kicks at midfield is far from straightforward, but it’s certainly no harm to have the chance. Kildare and perhaps Cork are the two sides in the country most suited to this new rule, and with Cork having secured promotion in 2009, this must surely be the Lilywhites’ year.

At 10/3 and a third the odds, that works out at just over 11/10 a place, and with so many teams looking way off the pace in this league which right now has two tiers, that’s too good to turn down.

A 3pt each way bet on Kildare to win NFL division 2 is hereby put on the record, and while nobody likes putting money away after the budget we’ve just endured, this looks like one of the best tax-free investments around at the moment.

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