An age old rule behind betting is to always know your opponent and to respect their strengths. Traditionally, this meant knowing which bookmakers had an inside line into certain stables, and taking careful note of occasions when those bookies took an unusual approach to laying a horse from that stable, whether that was ducking it entirely or adding a couple of points to the best price in the market and going after whatever money was out there. In GAA betting, this usually meant factoring in local knowledge and respecting when certain bookies had an inside line, either through their geographical base, or through individual connections.

Thus, when looking at the Derry senior football championship, we tread warily since we are fully aware that Ladbrokes write a big cheque to Derry GAA every year. There is no doubt that when my fellow columnist Neil picks up the phone to ask about the local action going on Foyleside, he can be sure that he’ll get a very genuine and honest response at the other end of the line. It wouldn’t do to be jeopardising a large sponsorship deal simply to land a touch for a few grand after all!

That said, it’s hard to ignore the pricing of tomorrow night’s fixture between Loup and Kilrea. Of these two clubs, Loup would be the better known team and as the reigning Derry county champions and former Ulster club champions, they have to be respected. St Patrick’s are not a young team by any stretch of the imagination, however they are a battle hardened outfit and one that should be respected.

Facing them tomorrow night are a team that are very definitely on the up, leaving the betting public with the conundrum of assessing whether or not the two graphs have crossed lines yet. Padraig Pearses of Kilrea have had a string of very good minor teams and those young players are starting to make their presence felt in the senior championship. Indeed many of them, including James and Charlie Kielt and defender Brian Óg McAlary, have featured in the Derry inter-county set up.

These two sides met in last year’s championship and the Loup emerged victorious by four points on that occasion, but the form of St Patrick’s simply hasn’t been at that level this year. Two wins out of twelve games in the league and a narrow win over a moderate Magherafelt team isn’t good enough to suggest that Loup are likely to be in contention this year, while Kilrea have shown definite signs of improvement, as one would expect from such a young set up gaining in experience with every game. They narrowly failed to beat Ballinderry in a tempestuous encounter in the second round of this year’s championship, but if they can harness that experience in a positive fashion, they can take the next step up tomorrow evening.

Backing young and improving teams against older sides who have seen and done it all before is always a risky business since even a dying wasp usually has one final sting in his tail, but this looks like a game where Kilrea are four or five points the better team, meaning that Loup’s experience might not be enough to sneak the result. The 2pt stake that we’ll place on Kilrea at 11/10 is in deference to the inside line enjoyed by the Magic Sign, but even allowing for that, this is a game and a team worthy of a small investment.

In a summer that was collectively a little short on romance, the progression of the Antrim footballers to their first Ulster final in generations was perhaps the high point for those in search of feelgood stories. Indeed even the most hardened of GAA supporters would find it difficult not to enjoy scenes like these . One swallow does not make a summer however, and looking at the prices chalked up for the meeting of St Galls and Clontibret this weekend, one could be forgiven for wondering if the compilers were getting a bit carried away by Antrim fever, and forgetting that this is still the same county that lived in the doldrums for so long.

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